February 2019 Discussion I

[Go Kart Mozart]

Get me into a mid to high amplitude 7, and I'll take my chances that the other indices fall into line.

[NorEastermass128]

That's one heck of a Super Bowl cutter on the 12z GFS.  Rains to Maine (or Montreal).  

The followup cutter is nice too.  After Feb 10, we'll be rocking.

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

That's one heck of a Super Bowl cutter on the 12z GFS.  Rains to Maine (or Montreal).  

The followup cutter is nice too.  After Feb 10, we'll be rocking.

Pacific jet is raging through that entire run. If that's true then Feb departures will be greater than Dec or Jan.

I'm never gonna root for an early snowfall again.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pacific jet is raging through that entire run. If that's true then Feb departures will be greater than Dec or Jan.

I'm never gonna root for an early snowfall again.

Yeah you can definitely blame the lack of snowfall on a front ender on 11/15. 

[codfishsnowman]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you can definitely blame the lack of snowfall on a front ender on 11/15. 

lolol

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you can definitely blame the lack of snowfall on a front ender on 11/15. 

I was kidding though admittedly it's a funny coincidence that this year and 2011 had early snowfalls and not much afterwards.

[512high]

What a roller coast ride this has been, as we approach February, I'm just wondering if I will see a 8 inch storm or greater, walking the dogs last night with the wife, she made a comment to me as we left the house, "Don't you think you should re-adjust the outside lights on the timer to come on later?"  Days are starting to get a tad longer,  I feel this winter is just going away too fast, for those that love cold/snow, hopefully we score something this coming month.......

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

What a roller coast ride this has been, as we approach February, I'm just wondering if I will see a 8 inch storm or greater, walking the dogs last night with the wife, she made a comment to me as we left the house, "Don't you think you should re-adjust the outside lights on the timer to come on later?"  Days are starting to get a tad longer,  I feel this winter is just going away too fast, for those that love cold/snow, hopefully we score something this coming month.......

Can't depart soon enough. I hope we are in flames next weekend.

[NorEastermass128]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't depart soon enough. I hope we are in flames next weekend.

Amen. Let’s get some record warmth in here FTLOG. 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't depart soon enough. I hope we are in flames next weekend.

 

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Amen. Let’s get some record warmth in here FTLOG. 

Keep that shit south and east of the 89/93 interchange in CON. Things are going ok here and I would like to make it through February for the first time in a couple of years without melting out. 

[NorEastermass128]

19 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

Keep that shit south and east of the 89/93 interchange in CON. Things are going ok here and I would like to make it through February for the first time in a couple of years without melting out. 

Let’s gradient it. Low dew 60s here and low dew 30s/40s up there during peak heat in an ideal world. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't depart soon enough. I hope we are in flames next weekend.

I’m all for it

im smelling some  melts when people see post First week of February goes from a “perspective” where we have chances but 90% are crap to close the shades . 

However if we can see a big east ridge and some warmth please sign me up

im awaiting ISOTHERM’s post on giving up the -NAO ghost and then we can have peace in the northeast 

[EastonSN+]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012712&fh=504

[NorEastermass128]

Fantasy snowstorm for the weekend after next. #babysteps

[512high]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Fantasy snowstorm for the weekend after next. #babysteps

not falling for this crap anymore unless its in a 24hr window......and let me guess..north it goes lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Fantasy snowstorm for the weekend after next. #babysteps

At hour 348, niceeee

[SnowHole413]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

At hour 348, niceeee

Just marked my calendar 

[ORH_wxman]

I cant give up when the pattern looks good sans the 2-3 day warmup. 

This is the old gambler's test...back from my card counting days in blackjack...you'd have a high count in the shoe which is what you want and you bet big. But the dealer keeps giving you stiff hands and they keep making 20s and 21s even when they have a stiff hand...they just pull a 5 card 21. 

You get your clock cleaned despite the deck being favorable. So now the important question...do you stop betting big because "the dealer is hot" or do you continue to bet big with a high count because that is what the objective numbers tell you to do? The obvious answer for the counter is you continue to bet big. In the long run you will beat the casino betting big on favorable counts. The short term past results from a favorable count do not change the mathematics. The casual gambler (or a poorly disciplined counter) may decide to leave the table. 

For me, it's not time to leave the table yet. If that time comes, I'll say it. But right now the deck looks pretty favorable so I'll stay in. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I cant give up when the pattern looks good sans the 2-3 day warmup. 

This is the old gambler's test...back from my card counting days in blackjack...you'd have a high count in the shoe which is what you want and you bet big. But the dealer keeps giving you stiff hands and they keep making 20s and 21s even when they have a stiff hand...they just pull a 5 card 21. 

You get your clock cleaned despite the deck being favorable. So now the important question...do you stop betting big because "the dealer is hot" or do you continue to bet big with a high count because that is what the objective numbers tell you to do? The obvious answer for the counter is you continue to bet big. In the long run you will beat the casino betting big on favorable counts. The short term past results from a favorable count do not change the mathematics. The casual gambler (or a poorly disciplined counter) may decide to leave the table. 

For me, it's not time to leave the table yet. If that time comes, I'll say it. But right now the deck looks pretty favorable so I'll stay in. 

Makes total sense.  And I will be in Vegas this week playing blackjack with my father.  I'm a novice, so I need to get an app to practice you are reminding me!  Psychologically, I think you are right on.  It is all about expectations, and we had big expectations.  But if we ignore everything that has happened before and just focus on what the models show now going forward, we'd have to feel pretty good.  Maybe the warm-up is muted anyhow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I cant give up when the pattern looks good sans the 2-3 day warmup. 

This is the old gambler's test...back from my card counting days in blackjack...you'd have a high count in the shoe which is what you want and you bet big. But the dealer keeps giving you stiff hands and they keep making 20s and 21s even when they have a stiff hand...they just pull a 5 card 21. 

You get your clock cleaned despite the deck being favorable. So now the important question...do you stop betting big because "the dealer is hot" or do you continue to bet big with a high count because that is what the objective numbers tell you to do? The obvious answer for the counter is you continue to bet big. In the long run you will beat the casino betting big on favorable counts. The short term past results from a favorable count do not change the mathematics. The casual gambler (or a poorly disciplined counter) may decide to leave the table. 

For me, it's not time to leave the table yet. If that time comes, I'll say it. But right now the deck looks pretty favorable so I'll stay in. 

Will, I have always respected your opinion on here. This seems like more than bad luck. Are other Mets as optimistic about the pattern as you 

 

 

 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I cant give up when the pattern looks good sans the 2-3 day warmup. 

This is the old gambler's test...back from my card counting days in blackjack...you'd have a high count in the shoe which is what you want and you bet big. But the dealer keeps giving you stiff hands and they keep making 20s and 21s even when they have a stiff hand...they just pull a 5 card 21. 

You get your clock cleaned despite the deck being favorable. So now the important question...do you stop betting big because "the dealer is hot" or do you continue to bet big with a high count because that is what the objective numbers tell you to do? The obvious answer for the counter is you continue to bet big. In the long run you will beat the casino betting big on favorable counts. The short term past results from a favorable count do not change the mathematics. The casual gambler (or a poorly disciplined counter) may decide to leave the table. 

For me, it's not time to leave the table yet. If that time comes, I'll say it. But right now the deck looks pretty favorable so I'll stay in. 

Sir, sir, you can't take your pants off at the table. 

[CoastalWx]

I took the money I won in 2015 and went to the bar. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I cant give up when the pattern looks good sans the 2-3 day warmup. 

This is the old gambler's test...back from my card counting days in blackjack...you'd have a high count in the shoe which is what you want and you bet big. But the dealer keeps giving you stiff hands and they keep making 20s and 21s even when they have a stiff hand...they just pull a 5 card 21. 

You get your clock cleaned despite the deck being favorable. So now the important question...do you stop betting big because "the dealer is hot" or do you continue to bet big with a high count because that is what the objective numbers tell you to do? The obvious answer for the counter is you continue to bet big. In the long run you will beat the casino betting big on favorable counts. The short term past results from a favorable count do not change the mathematics. The casual gambler (or a poorly disciplined counter) may decide to leave the table. 

For me, it's not time to leave the table yet. If that time comes, I'll say it. But right now the deck looks pretty favorable so I'll stay in. 

I still say go big in Feb...and if I can't ram it down pickles throat this season, I probably will in the next one.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still say go big in Feb...and if I can't ram it down pickles throat this season, I probably will in the next one.

There’s no doubt it looks decent. I think at this point I’m just waiting until something is more imminent. I’ve accepted it’s probably not going to be great and whatever happens happens. I’m just tired of disappointment. Time to move on. 

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will, I have always respected your opinion on here. This seems like more than bad luck. Are other Mets as optimistic about the pattern as you 

 

 

 

When you have barely above average temps and well above avg precip and hardly any snow at our latitude? I call it mostly bad luck. We can define what luck is...we probably should: I define it as atmospheric chaos on the smaller scale outside of the longwave pattern. Those are things that are not predictable. 

There's realy no such thing as actual "luck" when it comes to this stuff. Some butterfly farted in Mongolia back in August and it changed the way a shortwave ejected from the Arctic circle months later...It happened but we just didn't know about it and had no way of reconciling that within a long wave pattern. 

But still. We got storm systems to hit us over and over all while we were somehow maintaining near climo temps and yet didn't snow...it's hard for me to call that some sort of standard pattern that we see and the light bulb goes on "oh yeah! There it is! The normal temp-above average precip-below average snowfall pattern!"  

But is all ears if there is some golden nugget explanation like a warm pocket of ocean off Easter Island that forces this unusual combo. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

There’s no doubt it looks decent. I think at this point I’m just waiting until something is more imminent. I’ve accepted it’s probably not going to be great and whatever happens happens. I’m just tired of disappointment. Time to move on. 

Yea, I'm going to need two HECS to have a prayer...which is what I forecast, anway. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pickles is sneaky good, though...he can be a little negative, but knows his stuff...all smack talk aside.

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When you have barely above average temps and well above avg precip and hardly any snow at our latitude? I call it mostly bad luck. We can define what luck is...we probably should: I define it as atmospheric chaos on the smaller scale outside of the longwave pattern. Those are things that are not predictable. 

There's realy no such thing as actual "luck" when it comes to this stuff. Some butterfly farted in Mongolia back in August and it changed the way a shortwave ejected from the Arctic circle months later...It happened but we just didn't know about it and had no way of reconciling that within a long wave pattern. 

But still. We got storm systems to hit us over and over all while we were somehow maintaining near climo temps and yet didn't snow...it's hard for me to call that some sort of standard pattern that we see and the light bulb goes on "oh yeah! There it is! The normal temp-above average precip-below average snowfall pattern!"  

But is all ears if there is some golden nugget explanation like a warm pocket of ocean off Easter Island that forces this unusual combo. 

I guess...but it has mostly been a cutter pattern where we're getting juicy warm sector events to really up our precip totals. We've had long stretches in winters where that has happened before...cutter, frigid, meh SWFE, frigid, cutter, frigid, etc. When the pattern goes somewhat favorable and DC gets snow and we don't, I guess I'd call that some semblance of bad luck. But to me, this currently is just a shit pattern of cold shots and cutters.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pickles is sneaky good, though...he can be a little negative, but knows his stuff...all smack talk aside.

Meh I don’t know what I KNOW

 But having a gradient set up in the same place just NW of the majority of us in SNE on say 70% of systems is not my definition  of bad luck. It’s a SNEAKY bad Pattern that seems so sneaky because a subtle shift would change our fortunes .

Bad luck is tripping waking to the store . Now if I tripped 70% of the time I walked to the store I would damn well say gee there has got to be a problem with the positioning of some peristiant ridging location and or raging zonal compressed flow w zero blocking. Maybe they take turns screwing is .It may not be very apparent because areas within 100 miles are steadily cashing in so it seems close Enuf to other years where we did fine but I Believe something is off just enuf and makes MUCH more of a effect than is initially diagnosed for our latitude 

I could be wrong

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I guess...but it has mostly been a cutter pattern where we're getting juicy warm sector events to really up our precip totals. We've had long stretches in winters where that has happened before...cutter, frigid, meh SWFE, frigid, cutter, frigid, etc. When the pattern goes somewhat favorable and DC gets snow and we don't, I guess I'd call that some semblance of bad luck. But to me, this currently is just a shit pattern of cold shots and cutters.

We did have that for a few weeks...but we legit missed some storms by narrow margins too. Why is NNE doing so well? And then you have two large events for Virginia. 

I am not claiming the entire thing is bad "luck"....but a good chunk of it is IMHO. It reminds me of NNE in Jan 2014. Yeah your qpf totals got juiced too by cutters but you also whiffed storms to the south while Scooter was getting 17 inches. It was super active but you couldn't buy a snow event in every way possible. And why was powderfreak not getting anything on the front end of cutters? We see cutters all the time that give snow on the front end. Nuances like the high was over Halifax instead of Houlton ME. 

If we were sitting slightly below average snow right now, I'd prob say "meh, that's about what I expect with this pattern"....but seeing totals in the bottom 10% doesn't square with this longwave pattern at all to me. This looks nothing like the other years it is competing with like 06/07, 11/12, 94/95, etc.