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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That run actually snows really heavily down to about EEN to MHT in NH ... and probably cat paws into the Worcester Hills...  it's been 'hinting' at more commitment to secondary, but I tell you what... The main reason why the primary is so dominant in that entire ordeal is because there's actually too much northern stream mechanical awesomeness carving S like an errant galaxy from N of the Lakes.... 

That's a...  

b,  there's just no ridging over the Rockies... It's been the rudimentary cause for all these lakes cutters ...which is also tantamount to saying the R-wave configuration is just aligned too far W..with ridging along or just off the west coast in the means... the natural couple flow nadir supports a Chi Town winter... 

 

That is the problem this season....the EPO just means we will have a cold supply. But we need either a PNA or an NAO, or else we get this season....granted they could have been snowier than they have, but those are the breaks.

2005 and 2015 had the PNA ridging....1969 had the NAO blocking.

This season is what we risk when you have neither.

2008 is what happens when you have neither and luck out.

This season happens when you have neither and do not luck out.

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That is what I missed this season.....I was all over the meager, 1969 like MEI, but I never thought the blocking would be a no-show. I think the SSW really messed that up.

I also should have hit the meager MEI/RNA angle a la 1969 harder than I did....I ended up factoring it in, especially with the call for December, but I ultimately went with a mean of the analog years later in the season, which entailed a PNA becoming prevalent.

It would have taken balls to go all out 1969, and I tried to play it safe.

The SSW I just missed....probably should have known better with the cited Noive Scandinavian blocking.

I think we really need to work on forecasting where SSW will be focused, after seeing how they can manifest as deconstructive interference to blocking in the event that they augment a hostile intraseasonal MJO signal.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is what I missed this season.....I was all over the meager, 1969 like MEI, but I never thought the blocking would be a no-show. I think the SSW really messed that up.

I also should have hit the meager MEI/RNA angle a la 1969 harder than I did....I ended up factoring it in, especially with the call for December, but I ultimately went with a mean of the analog years later in the season, which entailed a PNA becoming prevalent.

It would have taken balls to go all out 1969, and I tried to play it safe.

The SSW I just missed....probably should have known better with the cited Noive Scandinavian blocking.

I think we really need to work on forecasting where SSW will be focused, after seeing how they can manifest as deconstructive interference to blocking in the event that they augment a hostile intraseasonal MJO signal.

Then another year something else will be out if sync. Unforecastable 

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I personally think the -QBO turning to a +QBO in December played a big role in not allowing the -NAO to manifes properly. I saw this coming months ago but chose to ignore it. I have neglected the importance of the QBO in the past and yet again it burns me. For years to come I will respect the position of the QBO in the fall months, and the continuing direction throughout the winter months.

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20 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

I personally think the -QBO turning to a +QBO in December played a big role in not allowing the -NAO to manifes properly. I saw this coming months ago but chose to ignore it. I have neglected the importance of the QBO in the past and yet again it burns me. For years to come I will respect the position of the QBO in the fall months, and the continuing direction throughout the winter months.

We have had seasons with similar QBO progressions that went gangbusters. And the fact that we had a SSW is a sign that it wasn't the QBO imo.

The main reason that I didn't forecast a SSW was the QBO...oops.

 

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The real challenge is trying to discern which factors to focus in on....not unlike coming up with a game plan in football imo. Like a puzzle..seasonal forecasting is cool.
Ray from a newbie who lurks - thank you. You had a great write-up that you obviously spent a huge amount of time on. Your writing (and others in this thread) are very educational.

Seasonal forecasting is hard but I love reading the winter outlooks. Keep em coming !
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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have had seasons with similar QBO progressions that went gangbusters. And the fact that we had a SSW is a sign that it wasn't the QBO imo.

The main reason that I didn't forecast a SSW was the QBO...oops.

 

94-95 was an El Niño with similar QBO that lines up very similar to this season...

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33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's difficult, and everyone will always have misses, but I'm 3/5...not bad imo. All we can do is keep trying to improve...never will be 100% success rate.

Hopefully I am around in 25 years when you will have a database score high enough to be considered for validity 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Thats not what I meant Mr snowflake lol geezus you can be so sensitive when it comes to your outlooks. Purely statistical post lol geez 

TBH, there is always luck involved...even in the hits. I lucked out in 2015 hitting the snowfall and missing the NAO. It evens out.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I appreciate the work that goes into LR outlooks but with so many of the same predictors teleconnections it gets to be mundane reading them. I fully admit to scrolling to the end to see what their winter call is.

Yea...I have been thinking about what I can do to mitigate the Tip effect. I like the educational part for those that have the time and interest, but I need to come up with something more tailored for public consumption.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Gfs and GGEM both have back to back events 2/27-28 and 3/1. Def a volatile setup. But they somehow agreed on the 00z run. Won't be staying up for the other guidance but I'd expect the euro to trend toward the 2/27-28 event more. 

I'll be up...will have a look

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Our classic "cutters" are those strong lows that shoot through the ern great lakes or NY state. Those do not have a redeveloper and offer little if any winter wx in SNE. What the GFS shows is similar to what we have had this winter. 

Yeah, I know they're not technically cutters, like I said before. What would these storms that we've been having all winter that redevelop be called/considered?  A SWFE that track to the west of us?

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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...I have been thinking about what I can do to mitigate the Tip effect. I like the educational part for those that have the time and interest, but I need to come up with something more tailored for public consumption.

You provide a fantastic educational resource,  do not change a thing. I am just an old codger who has read hundreds of these over the years. 

As far as 2015 and NAO goes I have my biggest issue with people who use monthly indicators to say oh we scored big and the NAO was positive for the month of Feb, when in fact if you delve into dailies you see a transient block on the days of the biggest storms . Recent examples are Feb 13 Feb 15 and March last year. Heres the rub, it is nearly impossible to forecast months in advance transient blocks.  They can pop up out of the blue or disappear overnight. The biggest wildcard in the deck.  All it takes is a 2 day ridge to turn a mundane 6 to 10 storm into a 18 to 24. If you loop the Atlantic this season you can see these blocks pop up in the Middle of the ocean slowing the monster sub 960 storms out there. Deep storms can pop ridges slowing themselves down too. Just my opinion 

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28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You provide a fantastic educational resource,  do not change a thing. I am just an old codger who has read hundreds of these over the years. 

As far as 2015 and NAO goes I have my biggest issue with people who use monthly indicators to say oh we scored big and the NAO was positive for the month of Feb, when in fact if you delve into dailies you see a transient block on the days of the biggest storms . Recent examples are Feb 13 Feb 15 and March last year. Heres the rub, it is nearly impossible to forecast months in advance transient blocks.  They can pop up out of the blue or disappear overnight. The biggest wildcard in the deck.  All it takes is a 2 day ridge to turn a mundane 6 to 10 storm into a 18 to 24. If you loop the Atlantic this season you can see these blocks pop up in the Middle of the ocean slowing the monster sub 960 storms out there. Deep storms can pop ridges slowing themselves down too. Just my opinion 

I get that, and you are right, but its just easier to get big events during blocked patterns/seasons. That's all. Just as it is with track...more is left to chance, but lack of blocking is not prohibitive.

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Yeah, I know they're not technically cutters, like I said before. What would these storms that we've been having all winter that redevelop be called/considered?  A SWFE that track to the west of us?

They're called a special kind of screw job......they have been there all season and continue to give us the big middle finger......its incredible really....I just watched the 0z GFS and threw up a little in my mouth......the consistency is unbelievable.....

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