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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Over under on how many trees branches actually come down on Kevs property.  He has pimped hundreds of ice snow wind storms for damage but in all the years and hundreds of pump jobs we have only seen 1 branch down on the Halloween storm. His name should really be no  brain damage in Tolland

 

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16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Divine Intervention.

That run actually snows really heavily down to about EEN to MHT in NH ... and probably cat paws into the Worcester Hills...  it's been 'hinting' at more commitment to secondary, but I tell you what... The main reason why the primary is so dominant in that entire ordeal is because there's actually too much northern stream mechanical awesomeness carving S like an errant galaxy from N of the Lakes.... 

That's a...  

b,  there's just no ridging over the Rockies... It's been the rudimentary cause for all these lakes cutters ...which is also tantamount to saying the R-wave configuration is just aligned too far W..with ridging along or just off the west coast in the means... the natural couple flow nadir supports a Chi Town winter... 

 

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17 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

18Z GFS still has the snow for Wed into Thurs.

Then it's a 2018-2019 trademark massive cutter for the weekend.  What exactly do we need for that threat not to cut?

That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. 

yeah, I was just commenting on that ... looked like white rain in the ORH hills and a pounding for the Monads ... but yeah close enough.   I thought there was "hope" there -

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, I was just commenting on that ... looked like white rain in the ORH hills and a pounding for the Monads ... but yeah close enough.   I thought there was "hope" there -

And who knows if that is the final result. It's certainly not a high confidence call and probably is dependent on Wed-Thurs too. We can't even get some agreement on that.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

And who knows if that is the final result. It's certainly not a high confidence call and probably is dependent on Wed-Thurs too. We can't even get some agreement on that.

That's a good point actually .. That Wed/Thur thing with more important backside NVA obviously might change the llv PP which that latter situ has some sensitivity due to such a fast flow not really giving the BL 'nough time to real rot/modify... 

lotta moving parts

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That run actually snows really heavily down to about EEN to MHT in NH ... and probably cat paws into the Worcester Hills...  it's been 'hinting' at more commitment to secondary, but I tell you what... The main reason why the primary is so dominant in that entire ordeal is because there's actually too much northern stream mechanical awesomeness carving S like an errant galaxy from N of the Lakes.... 

That's a...  

b,  there's just no ridging over the Rockies... It's been the rudimentary cause for all these lakes cutters ...which is also tantamount to saying the R-wave configuration is just aligned too far W..with ridging along or just off the west coast in the means... the natural couple flow nadir supports a Chi Town winter... 

 

Theme of the season and it won’t change. 

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. 

I'm no Met obviously and my knowledge is like the Earth in the Universe compared to you but I just consider any low pressure center that goes to the west of NE into the Great Lakes and then Canada a cutter, even the ones that develop a secondary off the coast because by the time those have got going this winter, it was too late every time. 

The lack of blocking and super fast flow has ruined this month in term of a big coastal, among other parameters

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41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. 

The 18z GFS has every event the same out to 384 hours...some form of a primary way west and a redeveloping low near the coast or SNE.  Amazingly consistent.

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1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I'm no Met obviously and my knowledge is like the Earth in the Universe compared to you but I just consider any low pressure center that goes to the west of NE into the Great Lakes and then Canada a cutter, even the ones that develop a secondary off the coast because by the time those have got going this winter, it was too late every time. 

The lack of blocking and super fast flow has ruined this month in term of a big coastal, among other parameters

Our classic "cutters" are those strong lows that shoot through the ern great lakes or NY state. Those do not have a redeveloper and offer little if any winter wx in SNE. What the GFS shows is similar to what we have had this winter. 

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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

no thread for northern new england on this event?

It doesn't seem like anything exciting. A few inches of snow then some mixed precip. My downslope prone locale might not even see that.  Only decent thing seems to be the potential for upslope after the storm but I think only 3 of us on here care about that

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22 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Which is garbage for SNE.    :weep:

Its semantics. What he is essentially telling you as that the it will be cold before and after it rains...and you may steal a couple of inches of snow and sleet as the cold vacates near the onset.

Rinse/repeat.

We are resigned to this for the rest of the season.

I said the same thing, more or less.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/yet-another-bundle-of-energy-trundles.html

Our only shot for a big ticket is to have something cut off in the right spot once the wave lengths shorten later in March and into April, which is always a possibility every season, but never a probability.

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The PNA that could never get it up this winter...

Example using multi-run comparison of Mar 2 that had once looked more favorable... we have been chasing this disappearing mirage multiple times beginning mid-January:

EDIT: failing to upload GIF so here is the series start-end points:

EPS_comparison_wide.thumb.jpg.c128d995b8efd963c084a69c297f5530.jpg

 

Webp.net-gifmaker (1) smaller.gif

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