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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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44 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nothing is going right at all

Great winter for Caribou ,Marquette and the west.

It still boggles my mind how different this winter has been from BTV to CAR than say south of ALB to PWM.  

BTV passed their normal seasonal snowfall average a week or two ago.  

I'm hoping we can pull off a big 18-24" storm before it all melts.  I just want to see this get taken to the next level.  I'd have 40" on the ground or more with an 18" event.

Summit snow depth is still only behind 1968-69 by a few inches as the deepest pack in 65 years.  This is a true high-end winter snowpack.

IMG_2334.PNG.f4c050c1dbb1a1c2dacc31b2634602e9.PNG

 

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It still boggles my mind how different this winter has been from BTV to CAR than say south of ALB to PWM.  

BTV passed their normal seasonal snowfall average a week or two ago.  

I'm hoping we can pull off a big 18-24" storm before it all melts.  I just want to see this get taken to the next level.  I'd have 40" on the ground or more with an 18" event.

Summit snow depth is still only behind 1968-69 by a few inches as the deepest pack in 65 years.  This is a true high-end winter snowpack.

IMG_2334.PNG.f4c050c1dbb1a1c2dacc31b2634602e9.PNG

 

That is how marginal the difference between a home run and a laughingstock-whiff actually is.  Had the blocking showed up like it does in most weak el nino seasons, the 1969 analog would have nailed it. But miss one index, and it all goes into the toilet.

Its actually part of the reason I love doing it, along with my obsession with snow....the high stakes and razor thin margin of error is so captivating. Much like sports...last season was a SB loss coupled with an outlook win, and this year is vice versa. 2015 was just complete ecstasy in a clean sweep.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Guidance is going to be all over the place in these patterns. 

At the end of the day, we still end up with same crap solution we have had all year...  cold dump west, primary into lakes, rain-mix.

Its like groundhog day....million and one ways to arrive at the same mundane, yeast infection of a solution.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Wow what a winter for Marquette

 I was in the upper peninsula a few weeks ago and I can concur. They may be the snowbelt, but the snow depths up there are far above what they normally are. Definitely an epic Winter up there for snow depth.  They are benefiting from the roller coaster Winter that we are having further downstate. From Jan 17-Feb 23 i will have had 20" of snow, 3 ice storms, temp ranges of 56° to -15° and hurricane force winds. With each radical shift in the pattern, they just get more snow.  When we torch and melt they get slammed with synoptics snow, when we snow they get slammed with LES, when we ice they get slammed with more synoptic snow.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At the end of the day, we still end up with same crap solution we have had all year...  cold dump west, primary into lakes, rain-mix.

Its like groundhog day....million and one ways to arrive at the same mundane, yeast infection of a solution.

It’s over. Studying beisbol should priority numero 1 now. 

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31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus...radical run-to-run variability.......there is just some impenetrable wall at 500mb just prevents energy from getting to the east coast this season.

Ya....that double low structure where the primary sorta transfers to the coast but not fully has been infuriating......modeled or otherwise......hate this winter

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is how marginal the difference between a home run and a laughingstock-whiff actually is.  Had the blocking showed up like it does in most weak el nino seasons, the 1969 analog would have nailed it. But miss one index, and it all goes into the toilet.

Its actually part of the reason I love doing it, along with my obsession with snow....the high stakes and razor thin margin of error is so captivating. Much like sports...last season was a SB loss coupled with an outlook win, and this year is vice versa. 2015 was just complete ecstasy in a clean sweep.

It's true that's a great way of looking at it.  

150 miles was the difference this winter between SNE grand slams and the whiff as you put it.  

BTV to CAR could've easily been NYC to BOS with some slight tweak to the long wave pattern or minor index changes.

But I guess in reverse the same could've been said for 2015...some small butterfly fart and all those storms track over PVD-BOS instead of the Benchmark. It's crazy how razor thin the line can be on a seasonal level.

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wonder if there are those still shook of a -NAO after this winter?

Perfect example of why you need to place the synoptic trangressions of past seasons in the rear view memory once you glean any lessons you can from them. They bias your perception moving forward...that is the challange...fine line between mindfulness of a lesson learned, and a misperception born of past experiences.

Harkens back to my sports analogy....lets past defeats inform what you can do differently, but you also have to distinguish between what you can control and what you can't...too much focus on the latter at the expense of the former can have a degrimental impact for many seasons to come.

No matter how well you play, you are never going to win every period, every down, inning or quarter..likewise, no synoptic evolution is always going to deliver the desired outcome.

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41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol true this winter will move quickly to the top of mind for "don't need -NAO"...see no -NAO and had constant deep snow cover starting November 12th!  Until that year comes along when we do need one.

NNE actually does better without neg NAO, I think..

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