40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Fwiw. Ukie continues to look pretty nice for next week. Model guidance all over the place on that. The chart doesn't do much for me...1009mb ...boing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The chart doesn't do much for me...1009mb ...boing 2-4/3-6 doable. I lose interest in these light events after mar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: 2-4/3-6 doable. I lose interest in these light events after mar 1 Yea, I'd just assume not have to write about it at this point. I'd take 50s over 2-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 44 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nothing is going right at all Great winter for Caribou ,Marquette and the west. It still boggles my mind how different this winter has been from BTV to CAR than say south of ALB to PWM. BTV passed their normal seasonal snowfall average a week or two ago. I'm hoping we can pull off a big 18-24" storm before it all melts. I just want to see this get taken to the next level. I'd have 40" on the ground or more with an 18" event. Summit snow depth is still only behind 1968-69 by a few inches as the deepest pack in 65 years. This is a true high-end winter snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It still boggles my mind how different this winter has been from BTV to CAR than say south of ALB to PWM. BTV passed their normal seasonal snowfall average a week or two ago. I'm hoping we can pull off a big 18-24" storm before it all melts. I just want to see this get taken to the next level. I'd have 40" on the ground or more with an 18" event. Summit snow depth is still only behind 1968-69 by a few inches as the deepest pack in 65 years. This is a true high-end winter snowpack. That is how marginal the difference between a home run and a laughingstock-whiff actually is. Had the blocking showed up like it does in most weak el nino seasons, the 1969 analog would have nailed it. But miss one index, and it all goes into the toilet. Its actually part of the reason I love doing it, along with my obsession with snow....the high stakes and razor thin margin of error is so captivating. Much like sports...last season was a SB loss coupled with an outlook win, and this year is vice versa. 2015 was just complete ecstasy in a clean sweep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Day 7 looks interesting on the EURO...lets see what this is cooking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 PV much more involved this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Jesus...radical run-to-run variability.......there is just some impenetrable wall at 500mb just prevents energy from getting to the east coast this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus...radical run-to-run variability.......there is just some impenetrable wall at 500mb just prevents energy from getting to the east coast this season. Guidance is going to be all over the place in these patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Guidance is going to be all over the place in these patterns. At the end of the day, we still end up with same crap solution we have had all year... cold dump west, primary into lakes, rain-mix. Its like groundhog day....million and one ways to arrive at the same mundane, yeast infection of a solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Wow what a winter for Marquette I was in the upper peninsula a few weeks ago and I can concur. They may be the snowbelt, but the snow depths up there are far above what they normally are. Definitely an epic Winter up there for snow depth. They are benefiting from the roller coaster Winter that we are having further downstate. From Jan 17-Feb 23 i will have had 20" of snow, 3 ice storms, temp ranges of 56° to -15° and hurricane force winds. With each radical shift in the pattern, they just get more snow. When we torch and melt they get slammed with synoptics snow, when we snow they get slammed with LES, when we ice they get slammed with more synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At the end of the day, we still end up with same crap solution we have had all year... cold dump west, primary into lakes, rain-mix. Its like groundhog day....million and one ways to arrive at the same mundane, yeast infection of a solution. It’s over. Studying beisbol should priority numero 1 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus...radical run-to-run variability.......there is just some impenetrable wall at 500mb just prevents energy from getting to the east coast this season. Ya....that double low structure where the primary sorta transfers to the coast but not fully has been infuriating......modeled or otherwise......hate this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 It’s the ground hog day winter pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 24 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Ya....that double low structure where the primary sorta transfers to the coast but not fully has been infuriating......modeled or otherwise......hate this winter Wonder if there are those still shook of a -NAO after this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wonder if there are those still shook of a -NAO after this winter? All of nne who did just fine without one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: All of nne who did just fine without one.... The belt south of the Moose labia zone could have used it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 The belt south of the Moose labia zone could have used it. Angry Scooter is the best Scooter. Ray needs a side bet with Pickles if Jerry gets a 12 incher the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At the end of the day, we still end up with same crap solution we have had all year... cold dump west, primary into lakes, rain-mix. Its like groundhog day....million and one ways to arrive at the same mundane, yeast infection of a solution. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is how marginal the difference between a home run and a laughingstock-whiff actually is. Had the blocking showed up like it does in most weak el nino seasons, the 1969 analog would have nailed it. But miss one index, and it all goes into the toilet. Its actually part of the reason I love doing it, along with my obsession with snow....the high stakes and razor thin margin of error is so captivating. Much like sports...last season was a SB loss coupled with an outlook win, and this year is vice versa. 2015 was just complete ecstasy in a clean sweep. It's true that's a great way of looking at it. 150 miles was the difference this winter between SNE grand slams and the whiff as you put it. BTV to CAR could've easily been NYC to BOS with some slight tweak to the long wave pattern or minor index changes. But I guess in reverse the same could've been said for 2015...some small butterfly fart and all those storms track over PVD-BOS instead of the Benchmark. It's crazy how razor thin the line can be on a seasonal level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'd just assume not have to write about it at this point. I'd take 50s over 2-5". I'll take nickels and dimes right up to April 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Don’t start believing Winter’s still deceiving Pacific Jet rages through. Don’t start believing Winter’s still deceiving Still Does, always looked like poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: All of nne who did just fine without one.... lol true this winter will move quickly to the top of mind for "don't need -NAO"...see no -NAO and had constant deep snow cover starting November 12th! Until that year comes along when we do need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I dunno...the next two weeks look interesting. Maybe we bat 0.000...but considering I've been pretty negative this winter....I'm interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Eps likes Mar 5/6, only a few days to go before that eventually evaporates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wonder if there are those still shook of a -NAO after this winter? Perfect example of why you need to place the synoptic trangressions of past seasons in the rear view memory once you glean any lessons you can from them. They bias your perception moving forward...that is the challange...fine line between mindfulness of a lesson learned, and a misperception born of past experiences. Harkens back to my sports analogy....lets past defeats inform what you can do differently, but you also have to distinguish between what you can control and what you can't...too much focus on the latter at the expense of the former can have a degrimental impact for many seasons to come. No matter how well you play, you are never going to win every period, every down, inning or quarter..likewise, no synoptic evolution is always going to deliver the desired outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: Angry Scooter is the best Scooter. Ray needs a side bet with Pickles if Jerry gets a 12 incher the rest of the winter LOL, not angry at all. Actually, Ray deserves credit for that term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Biggest wind threat is north of the Pike Berks ORH Ne Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Biggest wind threat is north of the Pike Berks ORH Ne Mass. That extends into CT and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol true this winter will move quickly to the top of mind for "don't need -NAO"...see no -NAO and had constant deep snow cover starting November 12th! Until that year comes along when we do need one. NNE actually does better without neg NAO, I think.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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