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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

GFS and Canadian say next system, early next week, cuts so far West we just get showers and warm breezes.  I mean Jeezuz, that look has Green Bay in the warm sector. 

Yeah, can't often remember seeing a forecasted 981 MB low over the western Great Lakes in early February in recent memory.  Such an odd pattern this winter.

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16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was my favorite analog...expected less RNA and less NAO version, but picked 1978 because 1969 was so extreme RNA and NAO. I should have just went with it anyway, and specified its limitations.

I was talking all fall about how the MEI was meager just like 1969, so it makes sense that nino has been late and null. Not sure if that season came off of a nina, as well, but this one did....so there you go.

I think 2012-13 is a decent analog too, especially based on how the pattern has been proceeding.

 

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16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Another -20C 850 airmass behind the cutters.

1980s pattern. 

yep, in storm tracks and frequency of arctic shots- we went below zero a few times in the 80s, including on Christmas morning one year (1980).  The Jan 1985 arctic shot was the coldest I've ever experienced with lows below zero and highs in the single digits.

None of those winters had much snow lol.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yep, in storm tracks and frequency of arctic shots- we went below zero a few times in the 80s, including on Christmas morning one year (1980).  The Jan 1985 arctic shot was the coldest I've ever experienced with lows below zero and highs in the single digits.

None of those winters had much snow lol.

I remember a Christmas in the 80's and the temp never got above 0; brutal day trying out my new sled but worth it!

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18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The death knell to my season totals was when the first half of February went to crap...that's when I waived the white flag on my seasonal totals..I still think we'll have a nice ending, but I could not afford to lose the peak week of climo to a crap pattern and I am. I was convinced we'd see a juggernaut during that stretch, and instead its a rusty coat hanger.

Sorry Ray, but losing the first half of the month could be the difference between getting one KU and two.  I know you still hold hope for the 1968-69 analog to work out but I think that one also had the Lindsey storm earlier in the month.  This time around it might be more like 2012-13 and there may be only one KU event rather than two.  Still, much better than what we have right now!

*March had a significant event in 2013 too, which can also happen this time around, but not on the same level as the historic Feb 2013 storm.

 

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18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are always going to be exceptions and outliers....but I'll bet that this would have been a great season 7-8/10 times.

The only reason I have to think otherwise is that we did have this pattern 7-8 times in the 80s and it always sucked lol.

These kinds of patterns are very stable and hard to dislodge- you need a really strong el nino to do it, not the kind we have right now.  Cold/dry with a southern storm track interspersed with cutters/huggers in between cold shots is a very familiar pattern that we had for a decade or more.

a big change a la Feb 2013 could do it

 

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

1994 has knocked in the door alll season in the medium range only to get lost when told to come back.

thats what I was thinking too!  1994 also had two zero or below Arctic shots in NYC and we got down to 4 degrees a week ago and now it's 2 degrees!  Very close to 1994 levels

This is basically 1994 with cold and storm frequency but about 4 degrees warmer- so instead of the two below zero Arctic outbreaks we have the two below five Arctic outbreaks!

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Just now, weathafella said:

Liberty-2012-13 delivered 65 inches to BOS thanks to a rocking February and March 

Yes and the rest of the pattern matches up well too, we had some cold and dry stretches after the pattern flipped around Jan 20 but the big snows waited until Mid February.  That was our first decent snow since November.  And we had another one in March!

What was the date of that big snow in Feb 2013, Jer?

 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tell ya whats going to be in the news is California.  978 sitting and spinning off the N Cali coast then Arctic air brings snow way down the coast. 6 to 8 feet of snow in the Sierras 4 to 5 inches of rain the entire Cali coast

ugh they're going to have the same problem they had a few years ago with landslides and mudslides come warm season and then a big burst of foliage again and then a bigger fire season- rinse/repeat

 

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15 minutes ago, Modfan said:

I remember a Christmas in the 80's and the temp never got above 0; brutal day trying out my new sled but worth it!

I think there was a big snow squall with an arctic frontal passage that day too with temps below 0, might have been the coldest temp I've ever seen with snow falling.  Christmas 1980!  NYC -1 BOS -8

 

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