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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it was obvious beforehand.

If you are that good, write it out next time.

I only know of one individual (met or hobbyist) who articulated his work and was reasonably accurate...lots of Monday QB, hindsight warriors who knew it all along.

Just don’t engage 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah guidance all over with that pig EPO ridge. Good luck getting consensus on storm threats. All you can say is that we remain favorable for a few events over the next 2 weeks.

Ridge is way east of where it has been....so there's definitely more longwave support for something interesting. No guarantees of course. All we can say is a coastal has a better shot in this pattern than it did the rest of this month.

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45 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was wrong with 15-16???.....Nothing was wrong except for a blow torch month of December. Followed by a Jan-Mar period that had well above normal temps. Any snow that fell that winter quickly vaporized. People walking around in shorts and sandals.  Ideal New England winter weather.

That's the best kind of winter,  Above average snows and temps with no pack.

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20 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Ray, think of the pattern leading into the fall/winter. Go back and take a look at the pattern that developed in late November. As I said wrote back then, I did not like the parade of storms that was hitting the west. I even commented in the El Nino sub forum that many forecasters had down played the El Nino and the overall state of the Pacific.

Cool. You should do a short outlook next year...maybe we can all learn something.

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15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m starting to buy into this upcoming period 

And it’ll probably last longer than everyone thinks.  I know everyone is buying into the indice slash weeklies collapse after 3/7-3/10 but as we often see this will probably hang in for another 1-2 weeks longer 

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Here's a quick illustration of how the longwave positions are more favorable for EC cyclogensis....you can see the western longwave ridge (marked in red) is actually just onshore rather than well offshore and the long wave trough (marked in bright green) is centered over the Lakes/OH Valley/Southeast.....12z EPS for March 1-2.

 

 

Feb21_12zEPS204.png

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For comparison, here's what the pattern looked like mid-month.....Feb 8th run of the EPS valid Feb 16-17...more classic gradient La Nina pattern. We can do ok in these, but they are generally hostile to coastals.

 

 

Feb8_EPS216h.png

It feels like the entire period from 1984-1991 that was the dominant pattern during winter for whatever reason.  Even when we had west coast ridging it tended to be too far west.  The coldest periods tended to have the same evolution, December 89 the ridge was largely too far west part of the month  

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49 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You are being overly sensitive. Nothing I wrote was directed at you. 

I think you are the one being overly sensitive...I was serious. There isn't a poster on this forum whom I haven't learned from...hell, even Kev has taught me the value of the ignore function.

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And remember-my house is Boston for verification purposes and we’re at 24 now.

Well, it’s 3rd and 28 on our own 25yd line down by 11 with 2:10 to go. We have the 2min warning and 1 timeout left. Pick up 14-16 inches, i mean, yards...and go for it on 4th down. Get the first, get into fg range and knock it through. Then the onsides, recover that....and we have a shot with 35sec to go.

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you are the one being overly sensitive...I was serious. There isn't a poster on this forum whom I haven't learned from...hell, even Kev has taught me the value of the ignore function.

You take weather a lot more seriously than I do. Honestly there are more important things in life. 

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well, it’s 3rd and 28 on our own 25yd line down by 11 with 2:10 to go. We have the 2min warning and 1 timeout left. Pick up 14-16 inches, i mean, yards...and go for it on 4th down. Get the first, get into fg range and knock it through. Then the onsides, recover that....and we have a shot with 35sec to go.

My money's on we get butt tackled.

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38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you are the one being overly sensitive...I was serious. There isn't a poster on this forum whom I haven't learned from...hell, even Kev has taught me the value of the ignore function.

I think a few folks thought that meant you had me on ignore. Whoosh on them lol

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