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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bedford was definitely a good one but it is now defunct...hasn't reported snowfall since 2008-2009 winter.

Back in 92 when I was interning with the RI State Climatologist they had annual SNE Coop meetings.  I went to 2, those guys and gals had some great stories of getting up at 6 and trucking through snow hurricanes lightning etc to get readings.  As dedicated as they come, many were older so I imagine that's why those long term coops are no longer. Special people serving the greater good.  I was involved in ground truthing doppler radar so I had the pleasure of going to many of the sites and talking with the folks. Many a sandwich and beer was consumed.  Lot of people take things for granted but it was the peeps on the ground who help develop your apps etc.

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3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

This winter has that girl next door feel to it.  Not a smoke show that everyone drools over but more of a subtle vibe that keeps you intrigued. 

Not in the lease bit.  This winter has been like the fat plumber hanging out from under your kitchen sink with the biggest plumber crack you've ever seen 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The FV3 this winter has been the PS version of Giancarlo Stanton.

 

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not in the lease bit.  This winter has been like the fat plumber hanging out from under your kitchen sink with the biggest plumber crack you've ever seen 

We've had worse. 11-12 and 15-16 were worse in my book.

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58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie looks like it may be trying for some overrunning like the GFS next week....GGEM is a bit more amped...almost a little NJ/LI redeveloper that gives a shot of snow.

do y'all refer to free open-source sites for UKMET this early ...?  

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6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

We've had worse. 11-12 and 15-16 were worse in my book.

This is far worse then 11/12. Big expectations, guidance always looked good at D10, with nothing to show for. 11/12 was a KU for interior then it was over. Guidance never teased, nor did Ray’s weenie....outlook. 

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Pacific west coast is a real mess next week. Look at H5 and the E-W line of troughs from off of CA to the interior US. Guidance is all over the place so expect no consistency for awhile. Ideally we want wat I mentioned earlier. Get one of those troughs to retro and pump up a Rockies ridge. That will lead to a trough in the east and a piece of the PV diving into the trough. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is far worse then 11/12. Big expectations, guidance always looked good at D10, with nothing to show for. 11/12 was a KU for interior then it was over. Guidance never teased, nor did Ray’s weenie....outlook. 

My thoughts exactly, although I did not live up here that year...it sucked everywhere. This has been the ultimate "get that pattern inside of 10 days" season....It never really got there, at least the snowy part. Also, I prefer ratter years to be nice and warm, at least enjoy being outside if there isn't any snow around and not have to pay to heat the house in the process....outside of November, even when it did snow it ended up a glacier, just a very thin one...

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is far worse then 11/12. Big expectations, guidance always looked good at D10, with nothing to show for. 11/12 was a KU for interior then it was over. Guidance never teased, nor did Ray’s weenie....outlook. 

Well I never had big expectations for this winter.  The  pattern told the story regardless of what the models showed at D10. And never trust a D10 model run. Doing so is going to set you up for disappointment.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pacific west coast is a real mess next week. Look at H5 and the E-W line of troughs from off of CA to the interior US. Guidance is all over the place so expect no consistency for awhile. Ideally we want wat I mentioned earlier. Get one of those troughs to retro and pump up a Rockies ridge. That will lead to a trough in the east and a piece of the PV diving into the trough. 

Just speaking to the GEFs ... it looks movement toward more 'under-cut' -EPO style over last 24 hours ... trying to go zonal with blocking situated over top.  

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Just speaking to the GEFs ... it looks movement toward more 'under-cut' -EPO style over last 24 hours ... trying to go zonal with blocking situated over top.  

 

Yeah, a ridge sandwich with arctic cold in between. Makes sense that the GFS op had that strung out, but long duration deal.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, a ridge sandwich with arctic cold in between. Makes sense that the GFS op had that strung out, but long duration deal.

Not saying it has any merit but did you seee the GGEM...  NJ model pop hammer...  

It's like each model has as separate rendition of what to do with all that instability out there with that -EPO dumping cold down...  I think we got iron out what the big picture is going to settle into for a start. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

oh duh... wonder why I didn't think to go look for European sites seeing as they're like 5 hours ahead ...  

oy. 

cool, stanks -

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

what was wrong with 15/16? I had above average snowfall.  Over 45".  I'm sitting at 14.90" right now.  That's what I had in 11/12.

What was wrong with 15-16???.....Nothing was wrong except for a blow torch month of December. Followed by a Jan-Mar period that had well above normal temps. Any snow that fell that winter quickly vaporized. People walking around in shorts and sandals.  Ideal New England winter weather.

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23 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well I never had big expectations for this winter.  The  pattern told the story regardless of what the models showed at D10. And never trust a D10 model run. Doing so is going to set you up for disappointment.

I don't think it was obvious beforehand.

If you are that good, write it out next time.

I only know of one individual (met or hobbyist) who articulated his work and was reasonably accurate...lots of Monday QB, hindsight warriors who knew it all along.

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4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was wrong with 15-16???.....Nothing was wrong except for a blow torch month of December. Followed by a Jan-Mar period that had well above normal temps. Any snow that fell that winter quickly vaporized. People walking around in shorts and sandals.  Ideal New England winter weather.

It sucked up this way...better south of the pike.

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was wrong with 15-16???.....Nothing was wrong except for a blow torch month of December. Followed by a Jan-Mar period that had well above normal temps. Any snow that fell that winter quickly vaporized. People walking around in shorts and sandals.  Ideal New England winter weather.

15-16 was tough if you missed out on the Mid-Atlantic HECS in January. It was a terrible winter in upstate NY as well. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it was obvious beforehand.

If you are that good, write it out next time.

I only know of one poster who articulated his work and was reasonably accurate...lots of Monday QB, hindsight warriors who knew it all along.

Ray, think of the pattern leading into the fall/winter. Go back and take a look at the pattern that developed in late November. As I said wrote back then, I did not like the parade of storms that was hitting the west. I even commented in the El Nino sub forum that many forecasters had down played the El Nino and the overall state of the Pacific.

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