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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Those are the easiest forecast for sne so even the worst models arbitrarily do well. 2” rain or drizzle fropa, it’s all same ioby.

Exactly. As long as it rains, nobody cares about track. It could cut through ALB or DET. It’s still a cutter. Wider margin for error. 

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

No kidding. EURO is pretty snowy in NNE. 

 

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah...could be nice for you folks.  Still ,looks like crap down here.

Kind of had this one on the back burner as it has looked to start as some snow/sleet then a change but its looking to stay mostly frozen now on some of the guidance outside of the GFS but we know how that goes.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Have not looked at the cold source set up for that one but yesterday/today certainly overperformed with the cold.

We have seen this most of the winter for some areas where the cold has done this, Models struggle with that aspect until closer to the event.

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1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Fantasy east of the rivah nuke on the 06z GFS op. If there was ever a favorable time for a coastal it will be in that 7-10 day period at the start of Morch 

Seeing the PNA whipsaw around that period lends some credence to the possibility. We often see significant systems when the modes switch like that.

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49 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

not for nothing fellas but it has been down right wintry for a week or so!

I was just thinking about this en route to work this morning... 

I've had contiguous snow pack ...albeit < 5" but a snow pack nonetheless, for over 10 days now.. .And, I'm up to 27" on the season.  I'm basically one solid performing coastal CCB from this getting to within a stone's throw of average, and looking at the pattern ahead (tele's and subtleties with the operational runs and so forth) I'm not willing to dispense with the notion of getting that done.  

We'll see.. but (hint hint) March's first week is about a good a shot as any for seasonal recuperation -

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been the most brutal winter I can remember. And man what a head fake November turned out to be. 

I can't wait till Spring arrives and this wretched winter gets bleached out of existence.

I wish the -EPO was just gone and we could torch March completely 2012 style.

I think you hit the nail on the head. We have had winters with less snow, but other than 2001 2002 winter they were not predicted to be snowy, AND Crap models like the weeklies did not continually show an epic look weeks 3 and 4 the entire winter. That combination, combined with a weak Nino, kept our minds thinking a 2015 repeat was coming till a couple weeks ago. Basically a giant tease. To make matters worse we had to endure cold temps. That is why I feel this is the worst winter of my life.

Regarding our upcoming cold snap, if the early 90s and 80s are a blueprint, we probably get a good pure snowstorm before we torch.

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Next week needs some help. That is a tricky pattern with the EPS keeping flow zonal through early next week. You are going to need that s/w trough to retro west of Seattle (which the 6z EPS tried to do). This allows for some weak ridging as a piece of energy breaks off the PV in Canada and tries to ignite cyclogenesis off the East Coast. This does not look like an easy task for a big low, but something lgt-mdt is possible. 

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