RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Fantasy east of the rivah nuke on the 06z GFS op. If there was ever a favorable time for a coastal it will be in that 7-10 day period at the start of Morch Both the 0z and 6z have a nuke but unfortunately, we don’t use the gfs to forecast coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Both the 0z and 6z have a nuke but unfortunately, we don’t use the gfs to forecast coastals. Yeah, just suttin to admire, ease the pain and pull out the old ween too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 6z GFS is full on winter after Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: right, only cutters, always spot on... Those are the easiest forecast for sne so even the worst models arbitrarily do well. 2” rain or drizzle fropa, it’s all same ioby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Those are the easiest forecast for sne so even the worst models arbitrarily do well. 2” rain or drizzle fropa, it’s all same ioby. Exactly. As long as it rains, nobody cares about track. It could cut through ALB or DET. It’s still a cutter. Wider margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 not for nothing fellas but it has been down right wintry for a week or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 22 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: not for nothing fellas but it has been down right wintry for a week or so! Stay safe fish, don’t get hooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 26 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: not for nothing fellas but it has been down right wintry for a week or so! Correct, “wintry” is a fair term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Sunday looking sneaky up here in CNE/NNE, Model trend has been colder on everything except the GFS, Could be a decent snow event if it continues, Euro is very bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Icy sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Sunday looking sneaky up here in CNE/NNE, Model trend has been colder on everything except the GFS, Could be a decent snow event if it continues, Euro is very bullish. No kidding. EURO is pretty snowy in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Sunday looking sneaky up here in CNE/NNE, Model trend has been colder on everything except the GFS, Could be a decent snow event if it continues, Euro is very bullish. Yeah...could be nice for you folks. Still ,looks like crap down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 41 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: not for nothing fellas but it has been down right wintry for a week or so! Greenfield is solid snow cover. Several snow to ice events with a lil' fluffer in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icy sne Have not looked at the cold source set up for that one but yesterday/today certainly overperformed with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: No kidding. EURO is pretty snowy in NNE. Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah...could be nice for you folks. Still ,looks like crap down here. Kind of had this one on the back burner as it has looked to start as some snow/sleet then a change but its looking to stay mostly frozen now on some of the guidance outside of the GFS but we know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Have not looked at the cold source set up for that one but yesterday/today certainly overperformed with the cold. We have seen this most of the winter for some areas where the cold has done this, Models struggle with that aspect until closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Fantasy east of the rivah nuke on the 06z GFS op. If there was ever a favorable time for a coastal it will be in that 7-10 day period at the start of Morch Seeing the PNA whipsaw around that period lends some credence to the possibility. We often see significant systems when the modes switch like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icy sne We rain in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 49 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: not for nothing fellas but it has been down right wintry for a week or so! I was just thinking about this en route to work this morning... I've had contiguous snow pack ...albeit < 5" but a snow pack nonetheless, for over 10 days now.. .And, I'm up to 27" on the season. I'm basically one solid performing coastal CCB from this getting to within a stone's throw of average, and looking at the pattern ahead (tele's and subtleties with the operational runs and so forth) I'm not willing to dispense with the notion of getting that done. We'll see.. but (hint hint) March's first week is about a good a shot as any for seasonal recuperation - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Fantasy east of the rivah nuke on the 06z GFS op. If there was ever a favorable time for a coastal it will be in that 7-10 day period at the start of Morch Lol, just looked at the run. You ain't kidding. A stalling 960s nuke replete with loop-de-loop. Jeebus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We rain in SNE. Watch the trends friend . Take your 50’s down at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Watch the trends friend . Take your 50’s down at the very least The trend is not your friend. Enjoy the cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The trend is not your friend. Enjoy the cold rain. Icy mix to rain . We take as trends evolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icy mix to rain . We take as trends evolve Trend your wishcast to liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Trend your wishcast to liquid. You said that about this event today and it turned out to be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It's been the most brutal winter I can remember. And man what a head fake November turned out to be. I can't wait till Spring arrives and this wretched winter gets bleached out of existence. I wish the -EPO was just gone and we could torch March completely 2012 style. I think you hit the nail on the head. We have had winters with less snow, but other than 2001 2002 winter they were not predicted to be snowy, AND Crap models like the weeklies did not continually show an epic look weeks 3 and 4 the entire winter. That combination, combined with a weak Nino, kept our minds thinking a 2015 repeat was coming till a couple weeks ago. Basically a giant tease. To make matters worse we had to endure cold temps. That is why I feel this is the worst winter of my life. Regarding our upcoming cold snap, if the early 90s and 80s are a blueprint, we probably get a good pure snowstorm before we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Epo tanks big time on the gefs and collapses on the eps near the 1st week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: You said that about this event today and it turned out to be great. Great? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Next week needs some help. That is a tricky pattern with the EPS keeping flow zonal through early next week. You are going to need that s/w trough to retro west of Seattle (which the 6z EPS tried to do). This allows for some weak ridging as a piece of energy breaks off the PV in Canada and tries to ignite cyclogenesis off the East Coast. This does not look like an easy task for a big low, but something lgt-mdt is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 This season can not end soon enough, These petty storms are nothing more then a pain in the ass. Nothing enjoyable about them whatsoever. 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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