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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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There's big ridging much further east than what we've seen. It is definitely more conductive for a coastal storm than the pattern we've been in. 

That doesn't mean you go locking it in but there is a reason to actually entertain the possibility. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's big ridging much further east than what we've seen. It is definitely more conductive for a coastal storm than the pattern we've been in. 

That doesn't mean you go locking it in but there is a reason to actually entertain the possibility. 

The question is does that better look evaporate as the next 6-8 days unfold .

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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes still looks pretty good in a long range. It’s our chance to at least get something sizable.

Until Lucy pulls the rug one more time?

granted it could stay for another week and then we actually have that period but let’s not act like it’s def coming I mean it’ll prolly be muted into meh a little better 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

 

:huh:

Lol. Yeah the signal is still there. But it's suppressed compared to yesterday. But for a day 7 threat....we know the drill. 

Still a very stormy EPS run though...signals for Mar 1-2 and another good one Mar 4-5. The early March ones likely have more longwave support than the 2/27 signal for reasons you mentioned earlier...the ridge really pops after 2/27 or 2/28. 

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

 

:huh:

I mean if your into 1008 down near SC headed to NF I guess thats a signal for some. Epic 970 ish  thru Michigan transfers to a mega ocean storm which acts like a Scooter stain, until that moves we will have to wait until day 9 10 like Will said. But meh today on the EPS for any strong coastal. 

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10 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

With the PNA forecasted to plummet per GEFS around March 1st, wouldn't the cold air dump from the -epo just fall to the west again, repeating the garbage pattern we are in?

For reference.

1509125238_pna.sprd2(7).thumb.gif.0d0a1e4e72dd52f2cb82b1bd1317e828.gif

Read my mind. The vintage 1985 EPO dump into Butte, MT just doesn't doesn't do it for me...as for the PNA developing and setting up further east...I place about as much stock in that as the NAO, at this point. I'm prepping for MLB fantasy draft.

I've moved on...not getting roped back in until we have strong consensus inside of day 4.

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I started researching my winter outlook not long after I got back from my honeymoon in August, dude.. AUGUST. I was fantasizing about this winter while sitting on a beach in Maui. All that work, anticipation....for this? A 3 month long cold-rain-cold shuffle so adroit in the art of evading snowfall and engineering dissapointment among winter enthusiasts that its just inconceivable that its anything other than a conscious effort....an endless cespool of 2-3" rusty coat hangers that lead us chasing our tails in search of pots of gold over the rainbow that just frankly didn't exist.  Hey, at least we have answered the riddle of just how much precipitation we can muster at nearly 43* latitude in the absence of a positive temp anomaly and still challenge record snowfall minima.

What a three-month enema that will leave me walking sideways for years to come.

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to listening to a Sox broadcast out on my deck during a sweltering summer evening amid reports that somewhere in the deepest recesses of a rubber room in Brooklyn, snow88 is still endlessly refreshing wxbell while staring at an MJO chart muttering incoherently.

He mutters incoherently enough already without the MJO chart. 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to listening to a Sox broadcast out on my deck during a sweltering summer evening amid reports that somewhere in the deepest recesses of a rubber room in Brooklyn, snow88 is still endlessly refreshing wxbell while staring at an MJO chart muttering incoherently.

He’ll still be going strong in April, predicting MJO phase 8, SSW’s, modoki El Nino forcing, blizzards and arctic cold death for NYC while the rest of the civilized world is enjoying spring

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I started researching my winter outlook not long after I got back from my honeymoon in August, dude.. AUGUST. I was fantasizing about this winter while sitting on a beach in Maui. All that work, anticipation....for this? A 3 month long cold-rain-cold shuffle so adroit in the art of evading snowfall and engineering dissapointment among winter enthusiasts that its just inconceivable that its anything other than a conscious effort....an endless cespool of 2-3" rusty coat hangers that lead us chasing our tails in search of pots of gold over the rainbow that just frankly didn't exist.  Hey, at least we have answered the riddle of just how much precipitation we can muster at nearly 43* latitude in the absence of a positive temp anomaly and still challenge record snowfall minima.

What a three-month enema that will leave me walking sideways for years to come.

It's been the most brutal winter I can remember. And man what a head fake November turned out to be. 

I can't wait till Spring arrives and this wretched winter gets bleached out of existence.

I wish the -EPO was just gone and we could torch March completely 2012 style.

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