Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You wouldn't have gotten the warm sector QPF though either . So many high PWAT intrusions south of the warm fronts in events this season... but yeah if you moved the snow that's fallen up here, down there then 100+ seems like a good bet. Then again it's funny in hindsight because if someone said gimme near normal temps and way above normal precip like this year, you'd take the over on snowfall. Near normal temps? You were BN and that's why you are buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I can’t believe no one has come out with Cobb maps yet. Someone doesn't know how Cobb works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 56 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean you can see the ratio in the text products of the GFS and NAM, in theory it shouldn't be that hard (says the non-programmer). It doesnt 20:1 ratios on the reg so it wont get the clicks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 hours ago, wxsniss said: Nice succinct summary from last week. Wonder if this is finally a turning point. For Feb 27-28 Euro and EPS start to finally build a west coast ridge that looks to last through D10. It's not robust yet for Feb 27-28 and we need help of that little weak blocking that Will mentioned to get that track under us. Yeah... I'm a little apprehensive ... admittedly, do to that persistence... But, in my 25 years of being privy to Meteorological concepts and exposure to the field, both for science and "art" ... I have rarely seen persistence last more than 90 days. 2012 came close but the season in fact entered modulation toward spring prior to testing that ... This year is trying to broach that extent prior to winter being over and low and behold... we have a something sniffing out ..right about on the deadline... Perhaps a more profound mass-field change ...entering the last week of this month. So we'll see... Like I said earlier today, ... the 27th isn't impossible .. My biggest points of contention with that first in probably a series is that the Euro is on its own ... forgot about that, but more specifically, the Euro tends to spuriously deepen troughs when spitting then E out of 100 ... 90 W or so, passing from mid to extended range. It seems to do this regardless of antecedent dailies in the run, too. Just all the sudden, a subtle curvature over Iowa turns into a negative tilted menaces in NE and this smells a bit like that. That's all A. B, heights over the deep south and SE are running a bit lofty to allow a negative turner to close off over the Del Marva like that. Although ... I see the Euro keeps it rollin' right along and it's a fast movers ... I'll give it that... nonetheless, prior to that even happening, the heights in the south are in a destructive interference with that wave space and it should actually be getting damped ... not strengthened, as it's slipping through to the north. Sure is eye-candy though... But that's as is....? Yeah, lower the heights a tad in the south... weaken that inhibition. Pop the backside ridge in the west a little more. Doable also... If the NAO also materializes more than a mere modest 530 dm height node over the lower D. straight region..that would also help. All of these adjustments are within reach... Over all I'm liking the the last week of the month into the first week of March and probably after too... This EPO is much more supported cross-guidance species/sources... and perhaps most important of all, the PNA shifting signs may mean less loading the trough over the Great Basin with the EPO strengths in negative sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Someone doesn't know how Cobb works Iterated omega temp and rh. Should be doable for nam and gfs products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Iterated omega temp and rh. Should be doable for nam and gfs products. I mean that's my primary method to accumulate in Bufkit, no reason it couldn't be done on a map level with some interpolation between grid points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Iterated omega temp and rh. Should be doable for nam and gfs products. Meaning they dont go out 8 days https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94815.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Meaning they dont go out 8 days https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94815.htm Why wouldnt the necessary variables be available out to day 16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean that's my primary method to accumulate in Bufkit, no reason it couldn't be done on a map level with some interpolation between grid points. Bufkit warehouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Why wouldnt the necessary variables be available out to day 16? Have at it, figure out the compaction while you are at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msg112469 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: This would work for the forum as a whole . Just showed my son this. He said "That's fake". Lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I could have swore I saw before that when Hawaii gets flooding rain and storms in winter, we get hit a week later. But I could be completely wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Have at it, figure out the compaction while you are at it I never said it was easy. Why did you immediately go on the attack lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I never said it was easy. Why did you immediately go on the attack lol? Stop stealing clown snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I could have swore I saw before that when Hawaii gets flooding rain and storms in winter, we get hit a week later. But I could be completely wrong! Happened in 2005... I had just moved in for my semester there and we had severe storm on O'ahu. Less than two weeks later James began writing chapter 1 of his novel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I never said it was easy. Why did you immediately go on the attack lol? Thats an attack woah lol geezuz, have at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Stop stealing clown snow. So sensitive you need a hug too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Near normal temps? You were BN and that's why you are buried. Ginxy I thought we were talking about SNE... or at least where Pickles was. -2F to +2F across New England for the most part...but I think the departures are likely influenced by deep snow cover too. The places below normal have generally had consistent snow cover since mid-November...Adirondacks, northern half of VT & NH and Maine away from the coast. It's interesting to see that deep snow cover likely feedback into colder nights and more surface cold in WAA events. Hard to tell what came first, the chicken or the egg. Is the snow a result of the below normal temps, or are the below normal temps a result of the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You kno what’s funny ...if that pacific ridging had been hundreds of miles east this winter and we had a +PNA w STJ action we would probably be over 100” . Gimme 15-20” QPF and a +PNA -EPO and I’ll take the over on snow Dec-Mar That was 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That was 2015. All within 3-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol you weren't around at the time so I will let this pass. Great some cryptic sh*t that a handful of people understand. Hopefully we get something decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Great some cryptic sh*t that a handful of people understand. Hopefully we get something decent Sam was a kid growing up in Keene, NH who was a whiz at meteorology from the get go. He was a big snow lover but probably a bigger severe lover. He got his degree and the went to Oklahoma for post grad. I think his name here is OKPowdah. He used to draw snow maps that always seemed to have a “phallic” look to the contours. If you look at that clown map, you can see the darker blue shading also has that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Fun progs to look at for a fantasy storm. Look at that 850 jet speed and circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Fun progs to look at for a fantasy storm. Look at that 850 jet speed and circulation. Only 34 more runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Not a peep about the 18z Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Not a peep about the 18z Euro? Ribbit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Not a peep about the 18z Euro? It was partly sunny and 70 with a Michigan mauler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. Yeah...I was looking more for info on the two systems incoming. I thought 18z was shorter range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. Nice interior ice event maybe for Sunday? Please? Lots of insolation this time of year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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