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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, msg112469 said:

Here in lies the reason why things haven't worked out for the large cities of the Northeast. I bet if you look back at big winters we've had in the past these amounts would be almost microscopic.

I mentioned something similar back in late November or early December when the parade of storms began to hit the west. 

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13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

pike north should def wait to throw in the towel Wednesday/thurs. I think trends will be improving going forward with more of a -NAO look over the northeast showing up on guidance going forward, and the main surface reflection trending further south...

Who is throwing in the towel? Over the next 7 days it looks like up here were close to 12" of snow/mix.

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Would start a belated February Discussion II thread but not sure the enthusiasm supports ...

Some changes lurking for this next 12 days ...probably into the first week of March, however.

Firstly, Thursday has a shot at a sneaky gem ... relative to calendar date, a top 10 day.  Keep in mind, that's relative to date. Not talking low RH 80 F cobalt blue skies with picturesque CU's, light winds and sun kissing napes... but, "down slope dandy" is prevalent and now that we are surpassed the perennial solar minimum ... these latter February > days on out to escape enters the perennial "MOS' bust too chilly" times of the year. 

The day dawns with grains and mist ... but mid morning, plummeting RH at 700 mb and established NW BL flow will probably cleave the skies clear pretty fast by mid morning, I've seen that look at this time of year before and the temperature usually sores.  Could see that surge into the mid 50s ... possibly a lollypop 61 over SE zones.  Not sure the BL would extend to the 850 mb level (probably not, ... ) but, with tempertures of +1 at Orange Mass and +4 or 5 over SE zones, the only limitation with light drying bl flow and full sun would be lingering llv inversion.  900 mb adiabat + 5F may do it.  But overall, light wind, clean air post solar nadir sun on a down slope flow is borderline feverish.

That as an aside...  and now looking more forward, the GEFs mean is still not quite as emphatic about the -EPO as the GFS operational version.  One thing I like about the -EPO outlook in general is seeing the operational Euro with a blocking node entering the picture up over the NW territories and Alaska.  That's a goodly bit of cross-guidance support over all.  The operational GFS even staggers the ridge node into an east -based EPO, a subtlety that is more successful in loading the Canadian shield.   The EPS landing on D10 looks not as deep as other times earlier this season, but has a better 'vector' with some heights moving onshore western Canada and more slope to the flow over W o/ JB ...  I call that support. 

Meanwhile, the PNA is trying to simultaneously flag some form of corrective event nearing the first couple of days of March, while hiding that fact - typical for this year... repeating theme of concurrent off-set signals.  But, with the antecedent -EPO (assuming success therein)... there is a whisper in the wind for a season "atonement" of past injustices.. ha.  Kidding of course...but, this is four days now of -EPO consistency, from multiple sources foreign and domestic ... cold loading is a good start and we'll see what happens.

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