ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Euro isn't even close for Wednesday....a totally different look than other guidance. It's really cold with temps near 0F though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro isn't even close for Wednesday....a totally different look than other guidance. It's really cold with temps near 0F though.... Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro isn't even close for Wednesday....a totally different look than other guidance. It's really cold with temps near 0F though.... Euro also was last to the potty for the Monday snowstorm. It’s tossed today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Man still flat. Yay for useless cold. I hope it’s crapping itself again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I do. I learn a lot from them. He was one of the only mets who suspected this winter would be a klunkerI usually just read the last paragraph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... deeper than all that.. I don't personally believe that all which has travailed us can be watered down to merely mishandling the el Nino - Firstly, ...this/that was no dig on you further above - like I said...there was a goodly bit of tongue-in-cheekism intended. Secondly, while I agree that the el nino appears to have failed, I believe the circulation base-line isn't either la nina. As I intimated pretty clearly in that, there is a systemic crisis - for lack of better word - where every autumn when "normal" seasonal cooling heights begin to push south during ensuing winters, since roughly 2000 ..they are running into more resistance elevated geopotential medium - perhaps rooted in GW as an aside, but perhaps not. Either way, there results in the gradient being anomalously sloped from roughly the 35th parallel to the 55th. The "likeness" that creates to to La Nina, is purely coincidental. It has to be... because SSTs/thermocline is/are crucial in determining the oceanic-atmospheric "coupled" state, and since the cooler SST part of that is missing... it cannot logically be La Nina. SO, the only alternative conclusion is that something else is causing these compression preponderances and its concomitant accelerated overall wind speeds. I think it's just normal seasonality from the N ...butting into pervasive heat saturation. NCEP also recently published a statement in their ENSO write up ... that it does not appear the Pacific anomaly has ever yet coupled to the circulation system of the atmosphere so... It's just been a non-factor, which leads no where else. Did you know that some airline reported 730 mph ground relative velocities over the open Atlantic ocean last week. That's essentially sonic speeds! I mean, it's ground relative velocity, mind you - they weren't actually flying a commercial jetliner at sound relativistic velocities ... not a 747 anyway. Now I don't know if that's ever happened before... if so, how frequent, but I suspect that sort of effect is increasingly evidenced where flights can either benefit vs delay from the maelstrom. Recently ... a buddy of mine and his family set out on what turned into a major crusade, connection flight deal to ultimate destination, Fiji. This was something outta of 1980s comedy about Plains Trains and Automobiles only not so haha. They ultimately ended spending three days of their allotted vacation, replete with squirming unforgiving 5 year old, ... somewhere around L.A. because a critical leg of the flight miss-calculated (in this day and age of high tech Meteorology, device to wisdom and back) fuel due to higher consumption at slow flight rates in head winds... The connection missed... it seemed the FAA couldn't rewire the transportation infrastructure if they wanted to... These sort of occurrences are increasingly more common ... But that's a digression... My point is, a normal seasonal arctic/polar domain space resting over top even a subtly ubiquitous warm surplussed middle and upper air medium in the mid latitudes is f'n everything up. Okay, gotcha. And I didn't take offense to anything...no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, cut said: I'll make sure my wife wears sunscreen while she's working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, Lava Rock said: I'll make sure my wife wears sunscreen while she's working I've never thought of the radiation aspect of flying - though it makes sense as the earths protective layer is thinner up there - just like Mt. Everest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Either last year or the year before we had a heck of a windstorm.. trees snapping and power flashes in the distance, it definitely was wild for a bit Last October I think. No damage or power issues here. The last damage around here that I recall is October of 2011. Allot more wind/snow damage when I lived in Coventry. We even had a tornado in July 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 D 7/8's got a decent prelude set up ...not sure it'll do anything with it on this run... but, with the EPO ridge dislodged and drifting into NW Canada, it should push that SPV fragment S and into that "dent" in the field over the Missouri Valley region... The flow over the Gulf and Florida and so forth is also less compressed ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Lol at this season, the EURO is cooking up something good at 198 hours, coming up the coast and right on cue @216 it has no precip over SNE as the low is moving ENE...It does snow in PA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Heh... I'd watch that... The fact that the N/stream didn't come down and phase more with those antecedent features looks dubious to me. Not tryin' to storm monger but that looks a little odd at D9 how it has that little tiny nuke E of MA while the entire majesty of the full latitude trough is anchored to JB like that - that's a look I suspect will change on the next runs(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... I'd watch that... The fact that the N/stream didn't come down and phase more with those antecedent features looks dubious to me. Not tryin' to storm monger but that looks a little odd at D9 how it has that little tiny nuke E of MA with while the entire majesty of the full latitude trough is anchored to JB like that - that's a look I suspect will change on the next runs(s) Its a lot of parts that are disjointed at that time, it has something cooking at Day 9 in the midwest right after the swing and miss. Probably better not to be a bullseye at this point since we all know how that has worked out so far this year. That day 7-10 periods seems ripe for something, definitely a window for something more "substantial" than this year has produced. Also that period of time has a lot of southern stream moisture being worked into the equation...lots of cold to the north, lots of moisture to the south hopefully they can combine into something nice here and not over the plains...the southeast ridge seems to be beaten down at that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, butterfish55 said: 59 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I do. I learn a lot from them. He was one of the only mets who suspected this winter would be a klunker I usually just read the last paragraph I read until I come across something I don't understand . . . so one or two sentences on average. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 From the 12z Euro ensemble members, still quite a few that have decent signal for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I read them when I have time. During the work day it’s never. This. While at work there just isn't time to delve in to the deep ideas most times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I think MPM should make a thread for the Saturday night/Sunday deal since it'll be his first ORH Hills big ice event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 EPS continue to look good for Mar 2 ad Mar 4-5....they show a really weak sig for 2/27....but it's still a miss. We're gonna have to hope the Euro and its ensembles are just wrong on that threat like they were for the 2/18 threat at 4-5 days out. It doesn't happen that often though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, Whineminster said: I think MPM should make a thread for the Saturday night/Sunday deal since it'll be his first ORH Hills big ice event. It doesn't look like a big deal....maybe a few hours of glaze and a tenth or two of accretion. Those are a dime a dozen in ORH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 56 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Its a lot of parts that are disjointed at that time, it has something cooking at Day 9 in the midwest right after the swing and miss. Probably better not to be a bullseye at this point since we all know how that has worked out so far this year. That day 7-10 periods seems ripe for something, definitely a window for something more "substantial" than this year has produced. Also that period of time has a lot of southern stream moisture being worked into the equation...lots of cold to the north, lots of moisture to the south hopefully they can combine into something nice here and not over the plains...the southeast ridge seems to be beaten down at that time too. But even that late system...it does ..or hints strongly like it's going to, do the same thing. It has plenty of space in the south for plumbing a deeper anomaly on down, and it even has a block in NW Canada to help force that to happen, yet it dangles powerful wave spacing precipitously over the Lakes and somehow it holds it at that latitude... Yet, at other times, it doesn't have the compression available in the south...and it doesn't have a blocking mechanism in NW Canada to force things S, yet like that run three days ago, ...it somehow melon balls the troposphere 'nough to stem wind a bomb on the MA... we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS continue to look good for Mar 2 ad Mar 4-5....they show a really weak sig for 2/27....but it's still a miss. We're gonna have to hope the Euro and its ensembles are just wrong on that threat like they were for the 2/18 threat at 4-5 days out. It doesn't happen that often though. I'm wondering if that's the last hurrah for this winter... barring something that's really fluky in bowling season. Heh, been a while since we've have a dynamical blue beaut ... I remember the one in 1987 ...like way back then. It was deep enough into the spring that leafs on the broad leaf sugar maples were half unfurled ... Course there's 1997 and 1977 ... Hey, maybe it's a 1 very 10 year thing... So, we're owed three of them - haha But, this is different than last year. We are not getting the whole scale relaxation to go along with the blocking ( in this case...the EPO... last year was the NAO...etc...) ...it's why we are getting more smearing of mid and extended range chances. I remember last year, those nor'easters in March really were well handled at fairly long leads... Anyway, I just wonder if when the EPO fades off around March 10 or whatever, if there's nothing left... like in 2014.. the big huge coastal bomb that rolled all the cold up with it and that was it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 -30C 850s wed on the euro here. Fml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I'd be fine with this winter ending...so sick of the EPO 2-4" deals...either produce something noteworthy, or get on with spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It doesn't look like a big deal....maybe a few hours of glaze and a tenth or two of accretion. Those are a dime a dozen in ORH. Looks like even less than that here in Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: -30C 850s wed on the euro here. Fml Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd be fine with this winter ending...so sick of the EPO 2-4" deals...either produce something noteworthy, or get on with spring. Well... fwiw - I've always felt that the previous peregrinations with the EPO were sorta "bootlegish" ... It just always seemed to me the previous EPOs were there numerically ...not so much synoptically so structured - probably owing to the domain space defaulting negative phase because of stuff going on around it... if that makes any sense? It's kind of like when the MJO makes the AO negative... when the AO heights don't look that way - it's basically because storminess at mid latitudes is enhancing the easterly trades up there around 55 N and those easterlies trip the EOFs into a negative mode... something like that... But those shenanigans may be more what's ad nauseam. This one looks more bona fide structured, with obvious blocking nodal Alaskan sector and migrant through the NW Territories ...more climate friendly to winter enthusiast liking. It's entirely possible that global models are not yet fully responding to that forcing just yet. Also, the PNA relaxing toward neutral appears clad, and that's also changing the landscape a little. I get it though... hot dogs, stadium beer, home runs and daisy dukes are a much better alternative to any sort of unfulfilled promises. To that ... I can only say, no promises being leveled... But, this is a different look for a couple of weeks just the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Awful. When I saw the 2m temperature anomaly maps you were the first person I thought of because I know how much you love late winter dry and Arctic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well... fwiw - I've always felt that the previous peregrinations with the EPO were sorta "bootlegish" ... It just always seemed to me the previous EPOs were there numerically ...not so much synoptically so structured - probably owing to the domain space defaulting negative phase because of stuff going on around it... if that makes any sense? It's kind of like when the MJO makes the AO negative... when the AO heights don't look that way - it's basically because storminess at mid latitudes is enhancing the easterly trades up there around 55 N and those easterlies trip the EOFs into a negative mode... something like that... But those shenanigans may be more what's ad nauseam. This one looks more bona fide structured, with obvious blocking nodal Alaskan sector and migrant through the NW Territories ...more climate friendly to winter enthusiast liking. It's entirely possible that global models are not yet fully responding to that forcing just yet. Also, the PNA relaxing toward neutral appears clad, and that's also changing the landscape a little. I get it though... hot dogs, stadium beer, home runs and daisy dukes are a much better alternative to any sort of unfulfilled promises. To that ... I can only say, no promises being leveled... But, this is a different look for a couple of weeks just the same. Yea, I agree. Thankfully if this still fails to produce, we are getting into mid March and it should be about over and easier to shrug off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: When I saw the 2m temperature anomaly maps you were the first person I thought of because I know how much you love late winter dry and Arctic. March 2006, 2014 and 2015 were awful for that...at least IMBY. Winter really is a miserable season if it doesn't behave- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March 2006, 2014 and 2015 were awful for that...at least IMBY. Winter really is a miserable season if it doesn't behave- Even worse when your expecting a memorable finish and it doesn’t produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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