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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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Just now, tamarack said:

Warning criteria - wouldn't that be unexpectedly nice?  Not confident it works out that way, more likely advisory snow to mix'n'mess, but still a pack builder.

Yes, I like these surprises, The euro was actually very bullish on this, Here is the 24 hr clown map

image.thumb.png.2264f7db4164e7f50a90823ea450acbf.png

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Trends and friends . Ice here we go

Retreating high/in-situ CAD hybrid so I'm not counting on huge ice....it's gonna be icy in the typical spots like east slope of Monads/ORH hills at some elevation...maybe Berks too. But many areas will latently warm to 33F....there could be a good shot of sleet though on the front end and then a few hours of ice.

 

I'd want to see more of a mesolow protruding northeastward off the E coast of MA to lock in bigger ice.

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52 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I am sitting at a conservatively measured 34" since I often don't record anything less than 1". As Tip  said earlier it wouldn't take that much to get to normal.  A 12"+  and a few advisory events could do it which is not unreasonable considering there is a solid month of winter weather left.

 I guess where we stand right now based on how much snow I've had and how much snow cover and winter activity I've been able to engage in I can't really give this season less than a C.   Not that that has anything to be really excited about.

The problem I have with this grading practice is that it is too guided by subjectivity.  

If someone "digs" the winter ...for whatever reason they do, they give it good grade.  If not...the opposite of course, and in either case, there's no "standardization" - it's whether they got what they wanted.  Or, at best ... some corruption of fairness happens whether they are even consciously aware they are modulating their impression or not. 

So what of it ... I mean, duh. We all know this...  But, it would be interesting if there was a standard metric that could be derived for determining the silliness of whether a winter 'passes' or not.  And then... it would make it that much more fun ( muah hahahaha) to rub people's noses in their own emotional, nonsensical baggage they lay off on others in here.  "This winter failed ... blah blah..."  Oh no it didn't, thus forcing the bitcher to face their emotional demons and suffer like they should for allowing this crap to affect them in the first place. I love that... 

Sort of kidding there... but, suppose we take an average at my location, gladly throwing myself under the bus:   52 at Lowell, and 54 at Barre Falls Dam ... so, triangulating for me in Ayer ... I can assume 53 inches as a rough guesstimate of my seasonal snow fall average.  

Fright now ...  ha, "fright" now...  I like that typo - let's go with that!  Fright now, as of this last evening's little over-production, I'm right around 27" in my yard on the season.  I don't speak for the region or anyone else, just what I've noted.  So, 27" is roughly half? 

Well, if 100% of a season is 53" (say) and I'm at 27 ...that's 50% of normal.  50% on any test is an F ... this winter Fails to achieve normalized snow variance.  So that is at least approaching a methodic, objective way to assess a pass fail conjecture about the year to date.   

I don't think it is over... re-echoing those sentiments, of course! At least in my all-indicative holier than though yard... we are only a single 5" event from this getting into the 60th percentile, and suddenly ... the year passes with a D- grade.  

I mean ... if people want to create a separate, none mathematical system, essentially tantamount to one based on flopping five year tantrum in a grocery store line because Mother Nature said no to the pretty wrapping candy-bars set strategically at said five year old's line of sight ... there's unfortunately no one size fits all agreeable metric for that.  

By the way... while on the subject of seasonal totals vs what the average neurotic, vaguely functional winter enthusiast wants... I found this site I'd never heard of called "Current Results" ?  I have no idea of its veracity ... but it list Amherst with 36.9" ?   Doesn't that seem low?  I can't find any explanation on that site but I thought that number was peculiar.  Buffemville too for that matter.  41 seems shirked 

Central Massachusetts

Average total snowfall for a year
Days Place Inches Centi­metres
16.6 Amherst 36.9 93.7
23.0 Barre Falls Reservoir Dam 54.7 138.9
14.5 Buffumville Lake 40.9 103.9
23.1 East Brimfield Lake 59.0 149.9
20.3 Lowell 51.9 131.8
20.3 Tully Lake 49.5 125.7
31.7 Worcester 64.1 162.8
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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Retreating high/in-situ CAD hybrid so I'm not counting on huge ice....it's gonna be icy in the typical spots like east slope of Monads/ORH hills at some elevation...maybe Berks too. But many areas will latently warm to 33F....there could be a good shot of sleet though on the front end and then a few hours of ice.

 

I'd want to see more of a mesolow protruding northeastward off the E coast of MA to lock in bigger ice.

I noticed yesterday NAM kept trending colder and so far it has today . Lots of 40’s and 50’s forecasts out there for Sunday when many interior folks could be icing in some degree 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I noticed yesterday NAM kept trending colder and so far it has today . Lots of 40’s and 50’s forecasts out there for Sunday when many interior folks could be icing in some degree 

Def take 'em down for Sunday....I haven't really looked at official forecasts...but nothing has supported 50s for Sunday since the beginning of this threat, at least over the interior....the coast and SE areas are a different story....maybe a brief post-FROPA spike into the 40s Sunday evening for interior.

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Nothing was supporting that in the first place - you've just been conned into placating a straw-argument ... 

Not sure why he does this - but sounds off like some absurdity is ubiquitous ... like to get vitriol about what he (really) fears happening maybe.. . I dunno.  Kinda fascinating actually - 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nothing was supporting that in the first place - you've just been conned into placating a straw-argument ... 

Not sure why he does this - but sounds off like some absurdity is ubiquitous ... like to get vitriol about what he (really) fears happening maybe.. . I dunno.  Kinda fascinating actually - 

His NWS forecast is 48F on Sunday

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem I have with this grading practice is that it is too guided by subjectivity.  

If someone "digs" the winter ...for whatever reason they do, they give it good grade.  If not...the opposite of course, and in either case, there's no "standardization" - it's whether they got what they wanted.  Or, at best ... some corruption of fairness happens whether they are even consciously aware they are modulating their impression or not. 

So what of it ... I mean, duh. We all know this...  But, it would be interesting if there was a standard metric that could be derived for determining the silliness of whether a winter 'passes' or not.  And then... it would make it that much more fun ( muah hahahaha) to rub people's noses in their own emotional, nonsensical baggage they lay off on others in here.  "This winter failed ... blah blah..."  Oh no it didn't, thus forcing the bitcher to face their emotional demons and suffer like they should for allowing this crap to affect them in the first place. I love that... 

Sort of kidding there... but, suppose we take an average at my location, gladly throwing myself under the bus:   52 at Lowell, and 54 at Barre Falls Dam ... so, triangulating for me in Ayer ... I can assume 53 inches as a rough guesstimate of my seasonal snow fall average.  

Fright now ...  ha, "fright" now...  I like that typo - let's go with that!  Fright now, as of this last evening's little over-production, I'm right around 27" in my yard on the season.  I don't speak for the region or anyone else, just what I've noted.  So, 27" is roughly half? 

Well, if 100% of a season is 53" (say) and I'm at 27 ...that's 50% of normal.  50% on any test is an F ... this winter Fails to achieve normalized snow variance.  So that is at least approaching a methodic, objective way to assess a pass fail conjecture about the year to date.   

I don't think it is over... re-echoing those sentiments, of course! At least in my all-indicative holier than though yard... we are only a single 5" event from this getting into the 60th percentile, and suddenly ... the year passes with a D- grade.  

I mean ... if people want to create a separate, none mathematical system, essentially tantamount to one based on flopping five year tantrum in a grocery store line because Mother Nature said no to the pretty wrapping candy-bars set strategically at said five year old's line of sight ... there's unfortunately no one size fits all agreeable metric for that.  

By the way... while on the subject of seasonal totals vs what the average neurotic, vaguely functional winter enthusiast wants... I found this site I'd never heard of called "Current Results" ?  I have no idea of its veracity ... but it list Amherst with 36.9" ?   Doesn't that seem low?  I can't find any explanation on that site but I thought that number was peculiar.  Buffemville too for that matter.  41 seems shirked 

Central Massachusetts

Average total snowfall for a year
Days Place Inches Centi­metres
16.6 Amherst 36.9 93.7
23.0 Barre Falls Reservoir Dam 54.7 138.9
14.5 Buffumville Lake 40.9 103.9
23.1 East Brimfield Lake 59.0 149.9
20.3 Lowell 51.9 131.8
20.3 Tully Lake 49.5 125.7
31.7 Worcester 64.1 162.8

That Lowell number is a good 10" too low.

ORH is about 4" low...

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Posted this before and maybe got lost in a storm-specific thread...

 

Up to a few years ago, NOAA used to have a site with a simple table listing individual monthly snowfall totals Jan-Dec, year by year since at least early 1900s, for KBOS, KORH, and other SNE locations (and possibly nationwide METAR IDs)

 

It was a great resource, and I can no longer find it or it’s been removed...

 

Anyone know of a comparable resource?

TIA

 

 

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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’ve seen low 50s from some Boston TV mets. I’ve already written Sunday off for MBY. Looks interesting though for the interior and up north. 

Ignore him. He’s just angry ,and facing a long way until spring and napes and disc golf with the lads.. so he’s taking it out on a few innocent souls here. 

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8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Posted this before and maybe got lost in a storm-specific thread...

 

Up to a few years ago, NOAA used to have a site with a simple table listing individual monthly snowfall totals Jan-Dec, year by year since at least early 1900s, for KBOS, KORH, and other SNE locations (and possibly nationwide METAR IDs)

 

It was a great resource, and I can no longer find it or it’s been removed...

 

Anyone know of a comparable resource?

TIA

 

 

Hey man,

Go to http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org select single station monthly summarized data select snow select station

Screenshot_20190221-110630_Chrome.jpg

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12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Posted this before and maybe got lost in a storm-specific thread...

 

Up to a few years ago, NOAA used to have a site with a simple table listing individual monthly snowfall totals Jan-Dec, year by year since at least early 1900s, for KBOS, KORH, and other SNE locations (and possibly nationwide METAR IDs)

 

It was a great resource, and I can no longer find it or it’s been removed...

 

Anyone know of a comparable resource?

TIA

 

 

 Def miss that link. 

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