ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: We take...Can this please be one of these systems that the EURO sees way out in time and keep it the whole way through? The days of the old EURO. I guess what I am saying, is this a thread the needle deal 8 days out? Because we know how this will end up if it is. Maybe if it was day 5-6, I'd think about it....but D8 on the euro isn't really any better than D8 on the GFS...mabe slightly, but they are all clowns at that range. They just might be wearing different clothes. All the guidance has a system around that time frame though....the reason the Euro is so good is because there is a weak NAO block near the Davis strait that forces that shortwave underneath us so we get a more classic Miller B redevelopment. There's also at least a hint of ridging out west too, but most of that solution is owed the to the weak Davis strait block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe if it was day 5-6, I'd think about it....but D8 on the euro isn't really any better than D8 on the GFS...mabe slightly, but they are all clowns at that range. They just might be wearing different clothes. All the guidance has a system around that time frame though....the reason the Euro is so good is because there is a weak NAO block near the Davis strait that forces that shortwave underneath us so we get a more classic Miller B redevelopment. There's also at least a hint of ridging out west too, but most of that solution is owed the to the weak Davis strait block. I think this one has a decent shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 That’s a Boxing Day track on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Dendy or Dryslut or Gene should fire up a thread for the Weds/Thurs event in CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 40 minutes ago, dryslot said: Euro has been pretty consistent with qpf amounts here over the last several runs, 4-6" seems to be the number. Congrats me on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Fantasy nuke at day 8 on the Euro. You don’t often get wood but when it’s good In your hood..... Look at the size of that Sammy Lilo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s a Boxing Day track on the euro Near us it is, but the development is quite a bit different. Boxing Day was a miller A storm that had the maximum intensification too far southwest to give us the max goods. This one is a miller B that nukes out in a good spot for us....but yeah, they do both track near the outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe if it was day 5-6, I'd think about it....but D8 on the euro isn't really any better than D8 on the GFS...mabe slightly, but they are all clowns at that range. They just might be wearing different clothes. All the guidance has a system around that time frame though....the reason the Euro is so good is because there is a weak NAO block near the Davis strait that forces that shortwave underneath us so we get a more classic Miller B redevelopment. There's also at least a hint of ridging out west too, but most of that solution is owed the to the weak Davis strait block. Fair enough, thanks! It is nice to see it at day 8 rather than 10... I feel like the Euro has had a few day 10 "biggies", nothing around 8, at least it has that going for it. EURO + BLOCKY patterns might help it in forecasting ability, pulling that from the weenie handbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 It's a bit early ... but doable. The "corrective event" I was speaking about was more into that first week of March (nearer side of ..) ...say, 2, 3 or 4th ... But, the 27 may pan in there with that -EPO happening in tandem with the PNA rising so smartly as it is in both model systems. I'm not sure I see a lot of -NAO in that Euro run though... Their is a "semblance" of lower D. Straight blocking ...yeah, but it's magnitude? Heh... it is < 530 dm, which isn't a very significant positive SD, not nearly enough to transitively instruct amplitude in the western OV like that ... I would suggest this particular rendition the Euro is sellin' is more an artifice of that model magically coring out troughs beyond D7 too liberally like it does so often.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Those clown maps....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Those clown maps....lol Weather.us gives me 24” What could possibly go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: What could possibly go wrong? 2019 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 EPS are actually pretty bullish on the D8 threat. We'll see if that holds over the next few days to get us to more reliable lead times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 54 minutes ago, dryslot said: Been feast or famine on ratios this season. Mostly famine - other than yesterday's little fluffy surprise, I haven't had anything reach 15:1, and very few even 10:1. Lots around 8:1 not even counting the ZR. Pretty amazing to get as much snow as we've had here with modest ratios and frequent taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, tamarack said: Mostly famine - other than yesterday's little fluffy surprise, I haven't had anything reach 15:1, and very few even 10:1. Lots around 8:1 not even counting the ZR. Pretty amazing to get as much snow as we've had here with modest ratios and frequent taint. Yeah, My thoughts were the same, We would be well ahead if we stayed away from the taint and higher ratios, This next one could put me right at seasonal avg so anything thereafter will be bonus time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You don’t often get wood but when it’s good In your hood..... Look at the size of that Sammy Lilo That's a thing of beauty. Do you have the snow maps just for fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think this one has a decent shot. Where have I heard this before? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Dendy or Dryslut or Gene should fire up a thread for the Weds/Thurs event in CNE/NNE Ha, another 2-4" or 3-6", I would barely notice it with all the snow out there. I'm already preparing for the 970mb bomb over CC next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Yeah, My thoughts were the same, We would be well ahead if we stayed away from the taint and higher ratios, This next one could put me right at seasonal avg so anything thereafter will be bonus time. Maybe your climo average In the 8 years that Kevin W has run the snow table, I've averaged more than you - no surprise given our respective locales - with an average of 94.0" (4" above my 20-yr and Farmington's 125-year averages) to your measly 93.6". As noted before, this year's latitudinal gradient resembles 2007-08 but shifted a full degree or more northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: That's a thing of beauty. Do you have the snow maps just for fun? 2+ feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 If this can pull a March 1960 can next winter give us a 1960-61? I’m asking for a friend (tamarack) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2+ feet Lol at the Kuchera, its like 3 ft around Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You don’t often get wood but when it’s good In your hood..... Look at the size of that Sammy Lilo hat has to be wrong. There is a small maximum in VT smack dab over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 EPS pretty much went wild for their whole run...multiple storm chances even after the Feb 27 threat. Prob the best run all winter actually in terms of pattern and storm look. Arctic cold in there too....don't be surprised at a brutal outbreak or two. Winter's last run at a weak Nino pattern that hasn't been able to develop this season....maybe we get our fun two or three weeks....or maybe this is just the final Lucy football act. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EPS pretty much went wild for their whole run...multiple storm chances even after the Feb 27 threat. Prob the best run all winter actually in terms of pattern and storm look. Arctic cold in there too....don't be surprised at a brutal outbreak or two. Winter's last run at a weak Nino pattern that hasn't been able to develop this season....maybe we get our fun two or three weeks....or maybe this is just the final Lucy football act. back end winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: back end winter It’s inside of 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Geez, totally missed how fast the jet is upstairs right now. Screaming along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Lol at the Kuchera, its like 3 ft around Boston I can imagine with that panel that Ginx posted. We Pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2+ feet My Weatherbell Kuchera clown map gives most of SNE 30-40". It drops down to around 20" on the south shore. Cape only gets 1 foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Geez, totally missed how fast the jet is upstairs right now. Screaming along. I was watching my flight radar app last night as some of the planes flying to Europe or just headed east towards the East Coast were showing ground speeds in excess of 750mph. That's unheard. Conversely, flights headed west from Boston were at speeds of only 300-350mph at 38,000ft. That's one hell of a tail wind and head wind respectively 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now