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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

I am here now on a visit but yes that was ridiculous. However, Pi Day more than made up for it. My first 30 inch snowfall.

You just happened to be up there in a few lean years, But that's good you got to experience that 30", They don't grow on trees and i have only seen one here and that was back in 1969, Came close in 2015 with 28.5" though.

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It sucked north of the pike. Cold and dry. Cost me unseating 1996 for #1.

24" month here.  I just pulled up each of the PNS's for Jan-Mar 2015.  Never say never, but that was unreal.  I think it was by the end of the 1st week of March after seeing another 18" fall that week, I sat back at was in awe of how deep it was.  Had like 110" 

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28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It sucked north of the pike. Cold and dry. Cost me unseating 1996 for #1.

I would have switched with you anyday. I received only 7 for the blizzard, 10.5 for the following storm and 2 from the steal the snow storm. Plus 7 from an overrunning event.

53 for the winter.

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How did that individual die?   

I don't recall ever meeting him ... I do remember the announcement that he passed (rip) but I don't recall engaging in any of the condolences and so forth so I don't know - he must have been a good deal to longer legacy members because his name is often resurfacing...  Don't mean to dredge up anything either - 

----- 

 

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32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You just happened to be up there in a few lean years, But that's good you got to experience that 30", They don't grow on trees and i have only seen one here and that was back in 1969, Came close in 2015 with 28.5" though.

Still waiting for a 30 - tops is 26.5, with another half dozen in the 2 foot range (and half of those came in one 5-year stretch in NNJ.) 

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8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Still waiting for a 30 - tops is 26.5, with another half dozen in the 2 foot range (and half of those came in one 5-year stretch in NNJ.) 

I mean, I have had several in the low 20's range but the real big ones seem to happen in SNE more frequently then here but also tend to come from Miller A's that mature further south and end up as an occluded POS or they miss to the NE as the get to this Lat, So they're rare.

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What do ya'll think about the possibility that we do end up getting a 2-3 week period of sustained winter starting next week.  It seems like the PNA will develop and the EPO will continue to supply.  With the trough edging towards the east and some modest -NAO we could do really well.  At some point the cold air in Canada will have to disappear and the SPV will reform over the pole.  Maybe that happens in a few weeks and we can melt out quickly for a great spring in the 3rd week of March.  That scenario seems plausible but with the caveat that if the -NAO gets too well established it will want to stay for 4-6 weeks and then we have cut-off and back door hell in April-May.  But if the NAO is more moderate then maybe we're good.

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How did that individual die?   

I don't recall ever meeting him ... I do remember the announcement that he passed (rip) but I don't recall engaging in any of the condolences and so forth so I don't know - he must have been a good deal to longer legacy members because his name is often resurfacing...  Don't mean to dredge up anything either - 

----- 

 

Scott suffered a TBI in 2007 if I remember correctly he ironically slipped on the ice and hit his head. He took his own life.  Like NFL players who have done the same its so sad how TBI effects them

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/brain-injury-linked-to-higher-risk-of-suicide/

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lucky...........;), Its like following Boston sports, Millennial's don't know anything but winning..........lol

Well I'm older than most Millennials...I'm often not included in Millennials (some say 1980 and a lot of others say 1985 is the cutoff). They call us "Xennials" (cross between Gen-X and Millennial) or the Oregon Trail Generation. Basically anyone born in the late 1970s/early 1980s....Scooter, Ray, and I's generation.

 

So I'm old enough to remember the lean times in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

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From WPC's extended discussion this morning:

Multiple waves traversing the southeast front combine with the enhanced precipitable water and lift to bring several rounds of widespread and likely heavy rain. Model/ensemble guidance show the strongest signal for heavy rains over the Southeast/Southern Appalachians/eastern Gulf coast. There is a threat of multi-inch rainfall totals in the southeast next week as the blocking ridging channels surges of moisture and lift along the same axis. The Ensemble situational awareness table highlighted this area with "MAX" values per the GEFS QPF relative to the reforecast database, signaling the rarity of the GEFS ensembles to be this wet this far out this time of year (Jan/Feb/Mar). Colder air settled in place on the northern periphery of these low pressure systems offers threats of snow/ice for the Great Lakes, portions of the Ohio Valley, northern Appalachians, and New York/New England.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's getting the ejecting shortwave further east before getting ground up...so it's getting some better snows into here on Wedensday night.

 

Plausible given the PAC this winter.  So we monitor and if it can get ahead of the confluence we could see a nice event in New England.

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well I'm older than most Millennials...I'm often not included in Millennials (some say 1980 and a lot of others say 1985 is the cutoff). They call us "Xennials" (cross between Gen-X and Millennial) or the Oregon Trail Generation. Basically anyone born in the late 1970s/early 1980s....Scooter, Ray, and I's generation.

 

So I'm old enough to remember the lean times in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Yeah, You fall into Gen x, I forget your older then some of these younger posters here, Then you remember the suckage from the 80's and lived it.

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