Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who the heck is arguing those arbitrary numbers , im saying 9/10 primary’s going to Toronto is the Pattern. That’s the main point of the season....the amazingly consistent primary storm track ...That’s not luck if someone can’t understand that is the main point of all this luck/ not luck talk they can’t be helped I agree. Luck has nothing to do with it at all. The pattern has been unfavorable since late November when the parade of storms into the west began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The pattern sucks.....bad luck and a bad pattern are not mutually exclusive. We had like 5 warning events in 2007-2008 with a primary into the lakes. Lol. That's where the chaotic nature of the discussion goes...the longwave pattern doesn't dictate whether it's a robust overrunning snow event or a brief flip while north of CON stays snow. We actually had a more stout SE ridge in that winter and an uglier PAC, so if anything, we should have done worse. But we didn't. It was super active and we managed to score a bunch of well-timed SWFEs. Someone convince me that it wasn't good fortune that we got 70-80" just north of the pike in this look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The 6z EPS certainly does not suck. We are entering a snowy period. Unless you are preening for a KU that is We’re not entering a super snowy period in SNE. Not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And would you consider N Foster representative of SNE as a whole? Lol so so silly. I mean cmon man keep trying. I am sure you understand but are just being a contrarian. SNE encompasses the Berks to the Ocean yet many of us usually have long winters with many days of snow cover on average. Some years are insane some are boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 So friday is a wash out even for up north? Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We had like 5 warning events in 2007-2008 with a primary into the lakes. Lol. That's where the chaotic nature of the discussion goes...the longwave pattern doesn't dictate whether it's a robust overrunning snow event or a brief flip while north of CON stays snow. We actually had a more stout SE ridge in that winter and an uglier PAC, so if anything, we should have done worse. But we didn't. It was super active and we managed to score a bunch of well-timed SWFEs. Someone convince me that it wasn't good fortune that we got 70-80" just north of the pike in this look: Exactly. 2011-2012 was an example of a putrid snow season that had nothing to do with luck. This season, we have had the cold, but no blocking and bad timing. I have a feeling that if we talking luck at 80", there wouldn't be this much resistance. But no one got their snow, and all they want to hear is how much it sucks. Tough shit....learn and evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think we will ever be able to predict something like snowfall via a longwave pattern because the nuances within that pattern are likely impacted by short term events that cannot be predicted. A flock of terns in Alaska may be enough to affect something or maybe a volcano grumbling or a few factories in Siberia were not running when an important front of wind occurrred so now the result of mountain torque is slightly different than it would have been. The best we can do is probabilistic. Say one area is more favored than another. I get that most people don't like probabilities. We inherently want to believe that it was all destined to happen and we just are missing that golden nugget of info that will make it all predictable one day. I don't believe that is possible though given the variables involved that are by their very nature, "chaotic". In other words, I do not think 50 years from now we will be able to say "oh look at this pattern, North Carolina to Maryland is going to do well while Philly to Boston gets screwed and then north of CON does well again." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I don't have a lot of faith in anything big for Monday. A couple of s/w's really start digging that western trough deep and try to pump the SE ridging as that system cuts across the OH valley. I'm afraid that s/w will get a little too sheared out or just not be able to amplify much even if we get a little secondary going. We'll see...hopefully the snow starved can at least get a light all-snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol so so silly. I mean cmon man keep trying. I am sure you understand but are just being a contrarian. SNE encompasses the Berks to the Ocean yet many of us usually have long winters with many days of snow cover on average. Some years are insane some are boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We had like 5 warning events in 2007-2008 with a primary into the lakes. Lol. That's where the chaotic nature of the discussion goes...the longwave pattern doesn't dictate whether it's a robust overrunning snow event or a brief flip while north of CON stays snow. We actually had a more stout SE ridge in that winter and an uglier PAC, so if anything, we should have done worse. But we didn't. It was super active and we managed to score a bunch of well-timed SWFEs. Someone convince me that it wasn't good fortune that we got 70-80" just north of the pike in this look: You’ve explained it perfectly each and every time. And like you said...the term Chaotic is probably better for the folks that like to play semantics. The random Chaos of it all explains it so well. Much better pattern over all speaking this year than 07-08, and we’ve pretty much struck out in SNE. Sh*t happens sometimes in decent patterns. And we strike oil sometimes in bad patterns...Will ‘s explanation is perfect of why we are, where we are. Thank you Will!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’re not entering a super snowy period in SNE. Not at all You added an adjective. Best period of this winter so far, not saying much this year but its gonna be snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: So friday is a wash out even for up north? Sad. Lol if showers is a wash out I guess, places in Western Maine probably wont go above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You added an adjective. Best period of this winter so far, not saying much this year but its gonna be snowy Ahhh you caught him...does that crap all the time. Then he would say you said “super snowy.” Lol. Nice catch of the “Twist.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly. 2011-2012 was an example of a putrid snow season that had nothing to do with luck. This season, we have had the cold, but no blocking and bad timing. I have a feeling that if we talking luck at 80", there wouldn't be this much resistance. But no one got their snow, and all they want to hear is how much it sucks. Tough shit....learn and evolve. I do believe in the "unpredictable chaos/luck" aspect, but I feel like there is something more to the pattern here just like most of the 80s. Torching cutters followed by arctic cold that frequently struggles to hold its ground ahead of the next system is a pattern flaw to me that may/may not have been predictable from a longer lead. Obviously no one will nail down the details of if it will be 36" or 29", but you could maybe say we're going to be more prone to cutters and retreating cold. This has been a crap pattern with chaos also not in SNE's favor so it's been a ratter to date. How much is chaos and how much is pattern? Who knows? But even in super ninos we can score some good events when chaos is on our side. Modeling will continue to improve with time (long range too). But calculating the methane and heat release of every cow dump in the world is difficult for the models to factor in. The models use parameterization anyway where they kind of avg out certain aspects of the geography and conditions to get a best guess estimate of certain variables. They're not factoring the frictional coefficient around PF's picnic tables or a dead hanging branch from one of Kevin's oak trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You added an adjective. Best period of this winter so far, not saying much this year but its gonna be snowy Is this your equivalent of his days and days of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Never had much issue with the NAM's termination latitudes for that elevating WCB .. my self. In terms of ptype, that's almost a separate argument. Total impact ...whether ZR, PL ...mixing with snow are all snow.. have their own headaches and can be ironed out under the banner of Winter Storm Warning, in general... I am pleased enough given what " I " see in the synoptic evolution, for the layout of the warning/advisory .. wouldn't split hairs. The issue for us locally... really from eastern Maine down thru CT ... as is normal for this "tuck" region, is the fact that topographic forcing is adding vectors to the N/NNE/NE drain/ageostrophic low-levels, ... a factor that the models, regardless of resolution, have not seemed to mastered. Particularly adding to this "standard correction" an actual physically correlated high pressure situated ideally (as is demoed countless times in climatology mind you) ... N of Maine, already in place and modeled to resist as lower pressure attempts to approach the region from the SSW, there is a high likelihood of busting the interior cold in this. I really don't have a problem with ORD's icestorm layout ending up (or should be already...) along the southern rim of the present WSW region and also occupying some of the northern rim where sits present Advisory layout. ...But, again, probably splits hairs. Obviously ... NWS' is to some degree mandated and cow-tied to toeing the model lines ... because (as I was told by an ex-employee), if one mavericks an outlook and is wrong, there is a short leash on that type of approach - which there really should be. I mean, we're talking about a service that is inherently charged with the macro-responsibility of millions of lives/civility safety. Not on a sunny day...mind us. But, in these sort of situations - so, there needs to be reliance upon higher regulatory practices. The idea here is to improve the models... We'll see how the chips fall in this... I'd be shocked if ORH gets above 31 prior to ...occluded passage.. In fact, I could see CT/RI and southern new england zones popping to almost 40 after the that passages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don't have a lot of faith in anything big for Monday. A couple of s/w's really start digging that western trough deep and try to pump the SE ridging as that system cuts across the OH valley. I'm afraid that s/w will get a little too sheared out or just not be able to amplify much even if we get a little secondary going. We'll see...hopefully the snow starved can at least get a light all-snow event. What has happened is the weekend system is a glorified fropa. The gradient is slipping south and the temp contrast has lessened. Weaker systems less precip but increased chances for snow for SNE. We will take anything we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: In other words, I do not think 50 years from now we will be able to say "oh look at this pattern, North Carolina to Maryland is going to do well while Philly to Boston gets screwed and then north of CON does well again." Even if you could observe the atmosphere and model it at the atomic level, there would be a certain amount of Brownian randomness that is fundamental to physics and ultimately expressed at the classical level as error bars in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Is this your equivalent of his days and days of snow? I try to be more thoughtful and respectful of others opinions, you should try it. Your new found elitism is a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You’ve explained it perfectly each and every time. And like you said...the term Chaotic is probably better for the folks that like to play semantics. The random Chaos of it all explains it so well. Much better pattern over all speaking this year than 07-08, and we’ve pretty much struck out in SNE. Sh*t happens sometimes in decent patterns. And we strike oil sometimes in bad patterns...Will ‘s explanation is perfect of why we are, where we are. Thank you Will!! Its not a copout, either. I , along with many others, missed this season because el nino never manifested as thought, nor did we have any blocking...yet. That has nothing to do with luck. Bad call. Two different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Lots of anger in SNE the last couple of days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not a copout, either. I , along with many others, missed this season because el nino never manifested as thought, nor did we have any blocking. That has nothing to do with luck...yet. Two different things. I never thought it was a cop-out. I just think Will’s explanations on why things have turned out to date as they have, have been perfectly laid out. Obviously, A lot of what happens is not a result of a chaotic nature..but it’s in there whether one wants to believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We'll see how the chips fall in this... I'd be shocked if ORH gets above 31 prior to ...occluded passage.. In fact, I could see CT/RI and southern new england zones popping to almost 40 after the that passages. Yep 6 z Euro for 2 am tonight torches SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lots of anger in SNE the last couple of days... It's because too many individuals consider SNE to be guaranteed a cold and snowy winter every winter. And that is not reality. The signs were there pretty early on that this was not going to be a great winter for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The best lr outlook for NAO, AO and PNA all season! Only negative is MJO backtracking to 7 (Don S nailed this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Pretty significant change in the CPC teleconnector outlooks overnight... After more than week's (really) continuity, the extended domains have all abruptly entered modality. The AO falls precipitously among all members ... quite aggressively, with surprisingly well clustering. The NAO is subtly sagging but... I'm thinking it's 'sag' is probably more related to the AO sharing domain space with it and that the latter is merely imposing its weight. The PNA, may in fact be unrelated to the AO's forcing/causality and probably is ... but, it's showing an interesting spike ... Which as an aside, I find interesting, but some of the ensemble members of x-y-z clusters have at times indicated an active pattern next week so, we could be merely blind to soon emergence, so to speak. In the meantime, the AO is interesting because the MJO has been showing bit of a robust migration through the left side quadratures of the WH lately... several days that's been the case. The way the MJO correlates with the AO is through the easterly trades along the 55th parallel. When the MJO is in a strong Phase 8,... and it's dispersion/syncing induces Rosby inclination ..that can enhance mid level cyclogenesis parameters ... of which easterly loading at mid latitudes ensues. That sort of "defaults" the AO into a negative status... and may draw the numbers down (even) without very demonstrative blocking nodes in those times. Other times, the AO is clearly positive with blocking without the MJO's default... and when the MJO then enters a favorable wave space, look out! Anyway, simpler put: the AO might be tanking because of the MJO migration over the next 10 days... It could be a hemisphere that's a bit more constructively interfering this time - stay tuned!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I never thought it was a cop-out. I just think Will’s explanations on why things have turned out to date as they have, have been perfectly laid out. Obviously, A lot of what happens is not a result of a chaotic nature..but it’s in there whether one wants to believe it or not. Oh, I know....speaking to you, not at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Phase 7 in late Feb and March is not bad at all dude . I dont understand the angst in here but I guess its easier on some people to always think the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Phase 7 in late Feb and March is not bad at all dude . I dont understand the angst in here but I guess its easier on some people to always think the worst. I think rhe AO, PNA and NAO all look good in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I try to be more thoughtful and respectful of others opinions, you should try it. Your new found elitism is a surprise It's called sarcasm and I've always had it. No need to be a snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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