CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 The GFS op has massive blocking 2010 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Starting when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 lol.....I love how every GFS model run I've checked the past few days has a screw you feature for every threat....its ridiculous and totality not surprising for this completely awful winter.....omg....JFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Still like a moderate event Tuesday night: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/confidence-increasing-for-significant.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 The run to run continuity on the models is the worst I've ever seen. The difference between tonight's Euro and the 12z Euro is staggering. Idk what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 4:57 AM, SnoSki14 said: Parts of the Mid-Atlantic could pick up a few inches with the 1st wave as per the GGEM/Nam. Crazy to think those places are doing much better than a good chunk of this area. Expand We've gotten a lot of 1-2" and then over to rain. As of the 18z gfs I was looking at 3inches and then rain in SEPA Tues night. And 3-5inches for friday/sat. Now with the 00z gfs I'm looking at 1 inches for both of those and a lot of rain. I'm also a little too far north for the sunday night system. The 00z nam has that dropping up to 5 inches on Cape may although that seems a little aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:46 AM, SnoSki14 said: The run to run continuity on the models is the worst I've ever seen. The difference between tonight's Euro and the 12z Euro is staggering. Idk what's going on. Expand If I had to hazard a guess, it's because models are struggling with how to handle the anticyclonic wave breaking event over western North America, and how the resulting cut off low evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 7:53 AM, OceanStWx said: If I had to hazard a guess, it's because models are struggling with how to handle the anticyclonic wave breaking event over western North America, and how the resulting cut off low evolves. Expand I actually tweeted about this. I've never seen the EPS have such massive differences starting at day 5. Differences from the previous run that is. Holy cow. But, the end result is a good look so we take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 8:02 AM, CoastalWx said: I actually tweeted about this. I've never seen the EPS have such massive differences starting at day 5. Differences from the previous run that is. Holy cow. But, the end result is a good look so we take? Expand In three weeks the only thing I want to take is a trip to the driving range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Liking the high position on the guidance right now. #manhigh. Good setup for at least a thump anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 10:04 AM, CoastalWx said: Liking the high position on the guidance right now. #manhigh. Good setup for at least a thump anyways. Expand Guidance is in good agreement right now. So what could go wrong? I suspect that will wobble around a bit in guidance as the upper low out west changes subtly run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 10:10 AM, OceanStWx said: Guidance is in good agreement right now. So what could go wrong? I suspect that will wobble around a bit in guidance as the upper low out west changes subtly run to run. Expand I'd like to see a quicker coastal develop, but given it appears the main s/w probably won't have a huge influence on coastal development, we'll take what we can get for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 10:12 AM, CoastalWx said: I'd like to see a quicker coastal develop, but given it appears the main s/w probably won't have a huge influence on coastal development, we'll take what we can get for now. Expand Day 6 ensemble sensitivity was like a 15 mb variance in SLP with the primary in the Great Lakes (from the 12z runs). So definitely wide goalposts on the surface low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 GFS going nuclear later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Finally, a fantasy coastal bomb inside day 8-9! Think that's the first time all season...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 That was model porn. I feel like smoking a cigarette after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 yeah, that was an absolute bomb riding up the coast next friday/saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 10:34 AM, CoastalWx said: That was model porn. I feel like smoking a cigarette after that. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 3:18 AM, Ginx snewx said: If you really believe Boston only had 1.1 inches of snow IDK what to say Expand As John Fogarty once wrote: I know it's true, oh so true, because I saw it on TV. On 2/8/2019 at 10:37 AM, OceanStWx said: Expand I can only imagine how long it took you to find that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 10:44 AM, moneypitmike said: As John Fogarty once wrote: I know it's true, oh so true, because I saw it on TV. I can only imagine how long it took you to find that.... Expand The shift is almost over, I'm kind of out of things to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Pretty high POPs for 4.5 days out. Tuesday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 26. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 21. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Wind advisory! Damage damage damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6z GFS is a weenie dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 A very snowy couple of weeks upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 10:55 AM, JC-CT said: Wind advisory! Damage damage damage Expand It’s a dangerous world out there, stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 10:59 AM, ineedsnow said: 6z GFS is a weenie dream Expand If only. Ideal nuke away from coastline. Too bad euro/eps says it’s just a dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 10:34 AM, CoastalWx said: That was model porn. I feel like smoking a cigarette after that. Expand Your welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Your ‘re Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 11:51 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Your ‘re Expand ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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