SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The SE ridge is going to bump the thermals north. Said that last night. Hopefully not into Canada If the first wave is strong enough it probably won’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: If the first wave is strong enough it probably won’t. I wouldn’t sleep on that first wave Monday night. It seems like a 1-2 incher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I wouldn’t sleep on that first wave Monday night. It seems like a 1-2 incher It probably has more potential than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Get out there and sell. Ya, gotta go with the more pedestrian scenario's now...been the theme for the whole first half of this winter, so sticking with that idea is prudent at this timeframe. Lots of things messing up systems this year for SNE...so the SE Ridge looks to be the issue coming up on this one. Hopefully we can sneak a modest event in though...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, gotta go with the more pedestrian scenario's now...been the theme for the whole first half of this winter, so sticking with that idea is prudent at this timeframe. Lots of things messing up systems this year for SNE...so the SE Ridge looks to be the issue coming up on this one. Hopefully we can sneak a modest event in though...?? It’s why I completely disagreed the other day with the ‘looking very good’ comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, gotta go with the more pedestrian scenario's now...been the theme for the whole first half of this winter, so sticking with that idea is prudent at this timeframe. Lots of things messing up systems this year for SNE...so the SE Ridge looks to be the issue coming up on this one. Hopefully we can sneak a modest event in though...?? It all depends on the epo ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s my bet. A sloppy couple inches S of Pike is what most are staring at atm. I think it will be better than that..widespread warning, but widespread over 12" will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The SE ridge is going to bump the thermals north. Said that last night. Hopefully not into Canada There is some confluence...need to try to get mid levels to redevelop east..which is tough, but not impossible. Low levels will, no prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Have fun tracking. I'll check in around Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just looking at the past few model cycles and that's quite laughable on the GFS from 05/18z to 06/0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Just looking at the past few model cycles and that's quite laughable on the GFS from 05/18z to 06/0z I like Maine in this...more time to redevelop mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like Maine in this...more time to redevelop mid levels. This looks like it wants to hug as the SE ridge flexes some, Yesterdays 12 Euro developed it much faster then 0z overnight, Time will tell, But yeah, I think were in a good spot for this one, If not, I would not have to travel far for it to end up being in one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: This looks like it wants to hug as the SE ridge flexes some, Yesterdays 12 Euro developed it much faster then 0z overnight, Time will tell, But yeah, I think were in a good spot for this one, If not, I would not have to travel far for it to end up being in one. Yea, agree RE hugger, but prob not a big deal unless you have hopes pinned to a blizzard...which is unlikely for a myriad of aforementioned reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 pointing out the obvious ... you don't need a "bomb" to get big snows... I've seen bombs snow 6" and stationary boundaries bust 14 and a half in early April ... anyway, I think that situation there is overall loaded with miss-direction potential though - a resounding theme for this winter. There are conflicting schools and it's difficult to know which will dictate the final outcomes - perhaps more obviousness. 1 .. .being that the flow is less than ideal for bombs - I agree with that. We don't have a more text book sloped/meridian flow ...tumbling a S/W from the top shelf with favorable W-E wave spacing setting it's greatest amplitude sights on the lower OV to MA regions.. What the Euro was doing was "stretching" the flow in the prior runs... Now, it seems to be stretching less; but, that means that the ridge position still being out along or even slightly W of the west coast.. .puts the primary wind-up region through the Lakes, and so removing the stretch it ends up west.. 2 ... it enters a plausible clue to GFS error ..in that one of its peccadilloes is that it runs a stretched/stretching/progressive bias in the mid and extended range. This is noted by NCEP and modeling et large. Not really debatable as it's an empirically measured bias in this particular model. Which... unfortunately could very well be re-introducing too much coastal/Miller B detection ..because its not supposed to have extended its mechanics that far E in the first place. See how that insidiously leads one to believe one run over the other? As an aside, that kind of bullcrap antic has been going on all f winter long! It's pretty annoying... One error gets corrected right into the production of the other models error, concealing the truth as proficiently as imaginable. There is yet a third option... 3 ... there is no reason why the anomalous stretched flow can't take place. It's basically a zonal flow construct with a very potent wind max ripping through it.. .and given any tendency to curl at all, the previous Euro runs were then breaking the wave ... if by chance alone, in a near ideal spatial-temporal range. I don't know if I'd carry a torch very far for that solution though as it's problematic enough for the models to handle fast zonal regimes, let alone details such as where and when in the flow buckling takes place.. Forget it. The 06z GFS trended somewhat toward the Euro's 00z run... fwiw - I would feel better about the "bomb" ...hell, even the Miller B at all, scenarios if the western heights would bump more toward Montana... Dakotas would be better. Otherwise, we're waiting on an anomalous flat wave scenario to return, which by very nature of "anomaly" is rare. Nice... lets light the fires of hope for a "rare" scenario in an "extended" outlook. That's usually ends well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, agree RE hugger, but prob not a big deal unless you have hopes pinned to a blizzard...which is unlikekly for a myriad of aforementioned reasons. As long as no one is expecting that, This can be a decent event, It just won't be a memorable one unless your in areas that has seen little to no snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s why I completely disagreed the other day with the ‘looking very good’ comments. Until I am shoveling more than 3 inches of snow, I wont believe anything. I have had a total of 5 inches since November 15th, if it were up to the models, even the EURO I would have had 70 inches by now. I would take a SWFE at this point and be happy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 So many beaten down weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 This will probably turn into a 6-12 inch event for all of SNE verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said: This will probably turn into a 6-12 inch event for all of SNE verbatim I agree...most, anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: So many beaten down weenies... I admit that it has been tough, but things are looking better next week. Canada is frigid and looks to remain that way for sometime and the steady stream of moisture is still there. It's not like it is bone dry or roasting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Euro and CFS MJO forecast look great with nice amplitude into 8 and then 1. Earthlight and others seem gungho on this upcoming pattern. This is the best looking pattern all winter with the strong epo ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 33 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: This will probably turn into a 6-12 inch event for all of SNE verbatim Heck even the Novie storm gave 6.5 to the south coast, and this one is a slightly better setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Euro and CFS MJO forecast look great with nice amplitude into 8 and then 1. Earthlight and others seem gungho on this upcoming pattern. This is the best looking pattern all winter with the strong epo ridge. You are going to be stroking the MJO in July waiting for the blizzard it promised you last November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are going to be stroking the MJO in July waiting for the blizzard it promised you last November. I disregarded the mjo earlier in the winter and got burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Heck even the Novie storm gave 6.5 to the south coast, and this one is a slightly better setup. That November storm had an incredibly cold airmass for the time of year. Is this ones airmass as cold? I know we are in the heart of winter now...not mid November, so the one next week could have the same type of air to work with, but it just wouldn't seem as extraordinary because we are in season now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That November storm had an incredibly cold airmass for the time of year. Is this ones airmass as cold? I know we are in the heart of winter now...not mid November, so the one next week could have the same type of air to work with, but it just wouldn't seem as extraordinary because we are in season now. Agreed. This season we rely on overrunning events for our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I disregarded the mjo earlier in the winter and got burned. So now overcompensate.... Its a factor that can enhance or mitigate the likelihood of a major winter storm, but it doesn't operate in a vacuum. The pattern doesn't looks great to me, it looks okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 For the simple "winter appeal" enthusiast, this upcoming threat looks really good...well as good as it can from 156 hours out. Let's keep that perspective here. Even if snow flips over it's likely to be a lot of IP/ZR with that frigid Arctic high in place in a classic spot. I do think there's good snow potential though on the front end even if we do flip because of that high. So in that sense...this has a lot going for it. OTOH, of you are a blizzard/nor' Easter purist, this one is probably not for you. It's unlikely this sharpens into a stemwinding tempest off ACK with classic ML deformation bands frolicking over SNE dropping 1-2 feet of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For the simple "winter appeal" enthusiast, this upcoming threat looks really good...well as good as it can from 156 hours out. Let's keep that perspective here. Even if snow flips over it's likely to be a lot of IP/ZR with that frigid Arctic high in place in a classic spot. I do think there's good snow potential though on the front end even if we do flip because of that high. So in that sense...this has a lot going for it. OTOH, of you are a blizzard/nor' Easter purist, this one is probably not for you. It's unlikely this sharpens into a stemwinding tempest off ACK with classic ML deformation bands frolicking over SNE dropping 1-2 feet of powder. I feel like it may be kind of like January 20th with slightly colder mid levels and not as impressive low level cold....less QPF, too. We may try for a little more redevelopment of the mid levels as it exits, too, which could help NE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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