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February 2019 Discussion I

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 1:32 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Get out there and sell.

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Ya, gotta go with the more pedestrian scenario's now...been the theme for the whole first half of this winter, so sticking with that idea is prudent at this timeframe.  Lots of things messing up systems this year for SNE...so the SE Ridge looks to be the issue coming up on this one.  Hopefully we can sneak a modest event in though...??

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 1:46 PM, WinterWolf said:

Ya, gotta go with the more pedestrian scenario's now...been the theme for the whole first half of this winter, so sticking with that idea is prudent at this timeframe.  Lots of things messing up systems this year for SNE...so the SE Ridge looks to be the issue coming up on this one.  Hopefully we can sneak a modest event in though...??

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It’s why I completely disagreed the other day with the ‘looking very good’ comments.  

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 1:46 PM, WinterWolf said:

Ya, gotta go with the more pedestrian scenario's now...been the theme for the whole first half of this winter, so sticking with that idea is prudent at this timeframe.  Lots of things messing up systems this year for SNE...so the SE Ridge looks to be the issue coming up on this one.  Hopefully we can sneak a modest event in though...??

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It all depends on the epo ridge

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 1:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

The SE ridge is going to bump the thermals north. Said that last night. Hopefully not into Canada 

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There is some confluence...need to try to get mid levels to redevelop east..which is tough, but not impossible. Low levels will, no prob.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 2:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like Maine in this...more time to redevelop mid levels.

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This looks like it wants to hug as the SE ridge flexes some, Yesterdays 12 Euro developed it much faster then 0z overnight, Time will tell, But yeah, I think were in a good spot for this one, If not, I would not have to travel far for it to end up being in one.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 2:19 PM, dryslot said:

This looks like it wants to hug as the SE ridge flexes some, Yesterdays 12 Euro developed it much faster then 0z overnight, Time will tell, But yeah, I think were in a good spot for this one, If not, I would not have to travel far for it to end up being in one.

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Yea, agree RE hugger, but prob not a big deal unless you have hopes pinned to a blizzard...which is unlikely for a myriad of aforementioned reasons.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

pointing out the obvious ...  

you don't need a "bomb" to get big snows...   I've seen bombs snow 6" and stationary boundaries bust 14 and a half in early April ... 

anyway, I think that situation there is overall loaded with miss-direction potential though - a resounding theme for this winter.  There are conflicting schools and it's difficult to know which will dictate the final outcomes - perhaps more obviousness.

1 .. .being that the flow is less than ideal for bombs - I agree with that.  We don't have a more text book sloped/meridian flow ...tumbling a S/W from the top shelf with favorable W-E wave spacing setting it's greatest amplitude sights on the lower OV to MA regions..   What the Euro was doing was "stretching" the flow in the prior runs... Now, it seems to be stretching less; but, that means that the ridge position still being out along or even slightly W of the west coast.. .puts the primary wind-up region through the Lakes, and so removing the stretch it ends up west..  

2 ... it enters a plausible clue to GFS error ..in that one of its peccadilloes is that it runs a stretched/stretching/progressive bias in the mid and extended range. This is noted by NCEP and modeling et large.  Not really debatable as it's an empirically measured bias in this particular model.   Which... unfortunately could very well be re-introducing too much coastal/Miller B detection ..because its not supposed to have extended its mechanics that far E in the first place.  

See how that insidiously leads one to believe one run over the other?  

As an aside, that kind of bullcrap antic has been going on all f winter long!  It's pretty annoying... One error gets corrected right into the production of the other models error, concealing the truth as proficiently as imaginable.   

There is yet a third option...  3 ... there is no reason why the anomalous stretched flow can't take place.  It's basically a zonal flow construct with a very potent wind max ripping through it.. .and given any tendency to curl at all, the previous Euro runs were then breaking the wave ... if by chance alone, in a near ideal spatial-temporal range.   I don't know if I'd carry a torch very far for that solution though as it's problematic enough for the models to handle fast zonal regimes, let alone details such as where and when in the flow buckling takes place.. Forget it.  

The 06z GFS trended somewhat toward the Euro's 00z run...  fwiw -

I would feel better about the "bomb" ...hell, even the Miller B at all, scenarios if the western heights would bump more toward Montana... Dakotas would be better.  Otherwise, we're waiting on an anomalous flat wave scenario to return, which by very nature of "anomaly" is rare.  Nice...  lets light the fires of hope for a "rare" scenario in an "extended" outlook.  That's usually ends well...

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 2:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, agree RE hugger, but prob not a big deal unless you have hopes pinned to a blizzard...which is unlikekly for a myriad of aforementioned reasons.

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As long as no one is expecting that, This can be a decent event, It just won't be a memorable one unless your in areas that has seen little to no snow this winter.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 2:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s why I completely disagreed the other day with the ‘looking very good’ comments.  

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Until I am shoveling more than 3 inches of snow, I wont believe anything. I have had a total of 5 inches since November 15th, if it were up to the models, even the EURO I would have had 70 inches by now. I would take a SWFE at this point and be happy....

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 3:13 PM, Snow88 said:

Euro and CFS MJO forecast look great with nice amplitude into 8 and then 1.

Earthlight and others seem gungho on this upcoming pattern. 

This is the best looking pattern all winter with the strong epo ridge.

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You are going to be stroking the MJO in July waiting for the blizzard it promised you last November.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 3:13 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Heck even the Novie storm gave 6.5 to the south coast, and this one is a slightly better setup.

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That November storm had an incredibly cold airmass for the time of year.  Is this ones airmass as cold?  I know we are in the heart of winter now...not mid November, so the one next week could have the same type of air to work with, but it just wouldn't seem as extraordinary because we are in season now.  

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 3:19 PM, WinterWolf said:

That November storm had an incredibly cold airmass for the time of year.  Is this ones airmass as cold?  I know we are in the heart of winter now...not mid November, so the one next week could have the same type of air to work with, but it just wouldn't seem as extraordinary because we are in season now.  

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Agreed. This season we rely on overrunning events for our snow chances.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 3:19 PM, Snow88 said:

I disregarded the mjo earlier in the winter and got burned.

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So now overcompensate....

Its a factor that can enhance or mitigate the likelihood of a major winter storm, but it doesn't operate in a vacuum. The pattern doesn't looks great to me, it looks okay.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

For the simple "winter appeal" enthusiast, this upcoming threat looks really good...well as good as it can from 156 hours out. Let's keep that perspective here. Even if snow flips over it's likely to be a lot of IP/ZR with that frigid Arctic high in place in a classic spot. I do think there's good snow potential though on the front end even if we do flip because of that high. So in that sense...this has a lot going for it. 

OTOH, of you are a blizzard/nor' Easter purist, this one is probably not for you. It's unlikely this sharpens into a stemwinding tempest off ACK with classic ML deformation bands frolicking over SNE dropping 1-2 feet of powder. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2019 at 3:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

For the simple "winter appeal" enthusiast, this upcoming threat looks really good...well as good as it can from 156 hours out. Let's keep that perspective here. Even if snow flips over it's likely to be a lot of IP/ZR with that frigid Arctic high in place in a classic spot. I do think there's good snow potential though on the front end even if we do flip because of that high. So in that sense...this has a lot going for it. 

OTOH, of you are a blizzard/nor' Easter purist, this one is probably not for you. It's unlikely this sharpens into a stemwinding tempest off ACK with classic ML deformation bands frolicking over SNE dropping 1-2 feet of powder. 

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I feel like it may be kind of like January 20th with slightly colder mid levels and not as impressive low level cold....less QPF, too.

We may try for a little more redevelopment of the mid levels as it exits, too, which could help NE areas.

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