NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 Anyone want to make a threat for the midweek rain/ice threat? Us coastal folks look past this week towards the next snow chance early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: I know it has been tough to look past 3 days, let alone 7 days, but that period from Feb 11th to the 13th might be the first legit shot at getting some snow around here. It has been on and off on the OP and Ensembles for a few days now. A nice 3-6 inch snowfall would be nice at this point.... I am at a point where 3-6” won’t tickle my fanny much. It’s getting late. Go big or shine the golf clubs already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I am at a point where 3-6” won’t tickle my fanny much. It’s getting late. Go big or shine the golf clubs already. Yep. That's where I'm at. 1-3/ 2-4 type deals can suck it. I want an 8-12"+ storm, making it worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So your snow option is off the table? Leaving big ice as the only outcome for you? There was never a snow option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 So now you deny writing what I quoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yep. That's where I'm at. 1-3/ 2-4 type deals can suck it. I want an 8-12"+ storm, making it worthwhile. Where's the eggplant emoji when you need it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I am at a point where 3-6” won’t tickle my fanny much. It’s getting late. Go big or shine the golf clubs already. Kids are on the back porch, screen door is open and it is 47 degrees. It does feel lovely, it almost smells like spring....I am almost ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 GFS coming in colder aloft. Snow for S NH Wednesday night? Prob sleet for N MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 50F here, snowcover melting away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 We winter of Yore, glad the warmth and cutters ended on Jan 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Kids are on the back porch, screen door is open and it is 47 degrees. It does feel lovely, it almost smells like spring....I am almost ready I noticed that same distinction last night pilin' outta my friends Super Bowl party around 10:30 pm down in the Arlington area. As I climbed the rest of the way up Rt 2, the dash thermometer rose from 36 to 38 as I pressed onward out past the Concord rotary and eventually over I-495. Out there amid middle Mass, on February 3rd, at 11:30 pm, it was just shy of 40 F...and the air carried a similar aroma to that of distantly burning paraffin wax. It's nostalgic of the warm season, no doubt. The peculiar thing is...I actually have smelled that before blue-bomb snow events... That SYZYGY storm way back in 1986 ...two days before that event a rotted polar air mass was slabbed across PA to NE and I recall the evening had that smell, despite the winter storm warnings in place. But a subtle polar front homogenized in as the storm was moving N of the coast and that ended that detection. Anyway, I think it's any time the moisture content gets above a certain level in the air ...it (maybe) mixes with impurities and gives at vague sweet pungency - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS coming in colder aloft. Snow for S NH Wednesday night? Prob sleet for N MA. Any ice here in N Connecticut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 What's the status regarding a pattern change to snowier? I was reading a lot from the mets that it is coming and now it seems to have dropped. Still hopeful for a potentially snowier pattern for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Any ice here in N Connecticut? Verbatim no on the GFS but if that look verified I would guess there might be some. The wedge is pretty visible even in the 900-950 layer that far south with it below freezing at those levels. You can see it on the BDL sounding. The cold layer gets more intense and deeper further north which is actually why it might be sleet north of the pike. Note how weak the warm layer is even at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Verbatim no on the GFS but if that look verified I would guess there might be some. The wedge is pretty visible even in the 900-950 layer that far with it below freezing at those levels. You can see it on the BDL sounding. The cold layer gets more intense and deeper further north which is actually why it might be sleet north of the pike. Note how weak the warm layer is even at BDL. And we know how poorly the gfs performed in the last icestorm blasting 50’s into N CT up to ORH when reality was mid-Upper 20’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS coming in colder aloft. Snow for S NH Wednesday night? Prob sleet for N MA. Denver weather FTW sunny 50’s then snow ? there is a nice cold shot feeding in Tuesday nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And we know how poorly the gfs performed in the last icestorm blasting 50’s into N CT up to ORH when reality was mid-Upper 20’s. Models will underestimate the CAD again...they almost always do...but the risk is that we are wedging in 33F air when the models are trying to drive it to 41F by Thursday morning. The models would be wrong but nobody would notice because it's still cold rain. If its 29-30F instead, then everyone will notice. The problem is we don't yet know what it will be. We don't get that really strong Arctic push after the cutter/torch tomorrow that we were seeing maybe 3-4 days ago. If we did, then I would be locking in 20-25F and sleet/snow/ice for virtually the whole storm. Instead, we get a weaker push and that muddies things up...we could be 28F or 33F Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 16 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: What's the status regarding a pattern change to snowier? I was reading a lot from the mets that it is coming and now it seems to have dropped. Still hopeful for a potentially snowier pattern for SNE? Hmm ...that's an interesting question - Firstly, the pattern changed to a snowier one. The problem? It just didn't snow. While not necessarily intended to point at you, per se... I have noticed a tendency to conflate the weather people want to see in the models, with the pattern ...which is understandable, but unfortunately there's more to it and there is a disconnect there. The pattern doesn't dictate whether it actually storms or not. The pattern only indicates favorable regimes. It may be hard to for some to really grasp or understand what that means... but, think of it this way ... with a superior organization, an NFL football team is in a better probability for winning on any given Sunday. But, that doesn't guarantee a win. Same here... When the pattern changed after the December debacle ... it changed for the better, but your team still lost. It just didn't snow in a pattern that had ample ingredients supplied to make that happen. So the cause for why it did not actually "do" x-y-z exists elsewhere. To that...I don't know what to say or add. We can be adult about that... or we can kick and scream and flop like five year-olds (proverbially speaking) because we're not getting what we want - which is a metaphor for the impatience and vitriol that happens among the neurotic usership of this site - haha. Anyway, the pattern this week ...not so much ...no. But this is a well-advertized thaw that's merely going according to plan. A pattern that is likelier to produce events more in sync with winter enthusiasts is out there... oh, D7 to 10 ... but it's really more like "returning," ...which again, following from this logic, doesn't not mean it will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I noticed that same distinction last night pilin' outta my friends Super Bowl party around 10:30 pm down in the Arlington area. As I climbed the rest of the way up Rt 2, the dash thermometer rose from 36 to 38 as I pressed onward out past the Concord rotary and eventually over I-495. Out there amid middle Mass, on February 3rd, at 11:30 pm, it was just shy of 40 F...and the air carried a similar aroma to that of distantly burning paraffin wax. It's nostalgic of the warm season, no doubt. The peculiar thing is...I actually have smelled that before blue-bomb snow events... That SYZYGY storm way back in 1986 ...two days before that event a rotted polar air mass was slabbed across PA to NE and I recall the evening had that smell, despite the winter storm warnings in place. But a subtle polar front homogenized in as the storm was moving N of the coast and that ended that detection. Anyway, I think it's any time the moisture content gets above a certain level in the air ...it (maybe) mixes with impurities and gives at vague sweet pungency - I saw there are air quality advisories in Philly/Baltimore areas?! What is this July? Even at 30 degrees this morning the air almost had a hazy look to it, not really fog. I could smell the scent of a skunk and quite the vocal chorus of song birds. Something you would see/hear in April or May and you just knew the temps were going to spike as soon as the sun took over. Maybe it has something to do with that circulation down in the Carolinas, mixing in some of that air from down south. Already 51/40 out there and the forecast is for 56..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I saw there are air quality advisories in Philly/Baltimore areas?! What is this July? Even at 30 degrees this morning the air almost had a hazy look to it, not really fog. I could smell the scent of a skunk and quite the vocal chorus of song birds. Something you would see/hear in April or May and you just knew the temps were going to spike as soon as the sun took over. Maybe it has something to do with that circulation down in the Carolinas, mixing in some of that air from down south. Nah...it's just a circumstance of broadly warming environmental air ... probably like we discussed, simply holding more water vapor that combines with ongoing impurities. I've smelled this air in other February 52 F blasts ... Hell, remember last year's 80 F day? ...I actually didn't even smell that smell as much at first, but the DP was desert dry in that warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS coming in colder aloft. Snow for S NH Wednesday night? Prob sleet for N MA. Fwiw (not much most likely...) the NAM came in with an overnight pellet and glaze fest heading into Thursday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nah...it's just a circumstance of broadly warming environmental air ... probably like we discussed, simply holding more water vapor that combines with ongoing impurities. I've smelled this air in other February 52 F blasts ... Hell, remember last year's 80 F day? ...I actually didn't even smell that smell as much as first, but the DP was desert dry in that warm up. Makes sense, even though we don't have any snow on the ground. Around here it is like a giant ice cube melting, so much moisture that froze solid with the last two arctic outbreaks. It is going to look like Oregon when it finally warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Correct John. Winter pollutants are high in stagnant air-much more so vs summer and more particulate in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 By the way... not sure if anyone's paying attention but we got a pretty good temperature bust going on right now... Most MOS' , and as far as I am aware ... human interpretations, were colder than 54 to 57 F for this hour; in fact, the high was supposed to be shy of this or equal, and we're likely tapping 60 at that... Now the we are preparing to leave the perennial solar minimum over this next week, we sort of unofficially enter the time of year when MOS' will typically bust too chilly on these type of days. Not sure why that is ...although it's probably climo attributed - exactly how/why I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 It’s beautiful out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s beautiful out. I could get used to days like this. If it ain't gonna snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fwiw (not much most likely...) the NAM came in with an overnight pellet and glaze fest heading into Thursday morning... RPM was cold too. Quite a bit colder than the NAM even...it had advisory snows north of the pike and then a good sleet pounding for a while before turning to glaze. Granted, as you said, these aren't worth a whole lot yet but if we start seeing a theme amongst the meso models in the next 24 hours, then it probably wise to start paying attention to a colder profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Damn....may have to drive down to jfk via 95 vs usual inland route... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Gfs looks very good in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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