scoob40 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: If the standard is 2015....yeah. But there's plenty of other epic years that didn't have it. A bit of Atlantic help would certainly be a good thing. Are you still confident in your call for 50"+ at ORH for Jan 1 - March 31 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Was it the Gefs or EPS who lost the nice -NAO last nite w a big east coast ridge in the 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: EPS most certainly looks pretty freaking epic. EPO/NAO working hand n hand. I'm not seeing it. I see a zonal flow with cold air lurking. That does not scream "epic" to me. Screams win some/ lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Ya , next couple days Runs show it’s put up or shut up time for blocking to go from fantasy land to reality yesterday I thought blocking had a 50/50 shot of winning out by 12’th-14’th. one model last nite gave up the ghost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya , next couple days Runs show it’s put up or shut up time for blocking to go from fantasy land to reality yesterday I thought blocking had a 50/50 shot of winning out by 12’th-14’th. one model last nite gave up the ghost Is -NAO a fraud five honorable mention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Aweful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, scoob40 said: Are you still confident in your call for 50"+ at ORH for Jan 1 - March 31 ? Well my call was for the rest of the season, so I was including April in that (not that April is a big snowfall month, but it's not zero). So lets see, we're at 12.2" for January. Below average but not obscenely so. That leaves us needing 37.8". Climo from here on out is about 36-37"....so it's close. I'd lean to them getting there given the overall pattern look, but it's definitely not a confident call. FWIW, every year since 2013 has succeeded in beating 37.8" from here on out except 2016....which fell just short at 36.1". Maybe we're due for regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Ya it’s getting to the point where these signs need to progress on the modeling inside 10 days..if today’s/tomorrow’s modeling doesn’t show that, than this is the same old “it looks good in the 11-15” BS that we’ve seen all winter long. Sad to say...But Ratter is knawing at everyone’s door in SNE this year...can we turn him away is the big question??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya it’s getting to the point where these signs need to progress on the modeling inside 10 days..if today’s/tomorrow’s modeling doesn’t show that, than this is the same old “it looks good in the 11-15” BS that we’ve seen all winter long. Sad to say...But Ratter is knowing at everyone’s door in SNE this year...can we turn him away is the big question??? I believe im getting out of ratter territory as I’ve seen about 20” on year and that is about my threshold for ratter. Still plenty of room for shiat winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 16 hours ago, Isotherm said: Frd, there are a couple [major] reasons why the NAO is becoming increasingly negative. One is the z10 reintegration of the vortex and attendant push downward of the -ve circulation anomalies; aka, the downwelling is finally reaching the critical layers of the troposphere. And, secondly, the tropospheric receptivity to high latitude blocking is increasing by way of vicissitudes in the Pacific tropical forcing regime. Reweighting of centrally based warmth, easterly trades increasing in region 1+2, enhanced LL convergence/UL divergence near the dateline, signalling canonical walker cell emergence. Posted this on another board. U850 wind proxy is instructive. It's incontrovertible that the walker-cell orientation and attendant tropical forcing is altering for February, toward a more stable regime which has been largely elusive to date; namely, enhanced low-level convergence and upper level divergence near the more canonical dateline location. The U-wind at z850 is a valuable proxy to ascertain this eastward propagating WLY wind and thus convergence line, serving as a focus for tropical convection. The result of which should be the induction of the canonical Aleutian low / +PNA regime once the contaminating intra-seasonal signal propagates toward late phase 7 / near phase 8 [circa Feb 8th]. The Western troughing is courtesy of the slowly propagating MJO phase 6-7 signal, which has already been covered numerous time. We saw the same situation in late December w/ amplified 6-7 and resultant trough deepening in the West. I think we all realize that this winter has not "cooperated with the time scales delineated in many winter forecasts" but I believe the apposite thought in everyone's mind at this point is as follows: one no longer cares how it has been timed, but will winter ever show up? And the answer is that there's a good chance for 4-5 weeks of winter [which quite frankly, if one thinks about, a large percentage of our good winters have came in about a month's period]. The debate of course is the precise z500 structure going forward. Let me refrain from equivocating: the GEFS is dead wrong with the circling back to phase 6. The ECMWF is closer, but still a bit too much wandering in phase 7. The VPM has been most instructive, and indicates some slowing in phase 7 in early February before phase 8 entrance at the beginning of the second week of February. So the bottom line is that the pattern, a priori, should become progressively improved. Hope from Isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 And trying to save his outlook and that was posted before the GEFS lost the -NAO last nite lets see wether the Euro brings MJO to 7/8 or craps itself in the meantime we got troughs dropping to San Diego and a mean mean -PNA that is not in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: And trying to save his outlook and that was posted before the GEFS lost the -NAO last nite lets see wether the Euro brings MJO to 7/8 or craps itself in the meantime we got troughs dropping to San Diego and a mean mean -PNA that is not in fantasy land Epic Sierra dump incoming. You should take 1 trip out there and you will laugh the next time we have 100 pages for 3 to 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm not seeing it. I see a zonal flow with cold air lurking. That does not scream "epic" to me. Screams win some/ lose some. It’s 11-15 Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: It’s 11-15 Bob Exactly. I see the pattern getting worse, subsequently to this. That western ridge is getting beat down and the flow goes zonal. That's not an "epic" look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Wpc doesn’t sound hopeful next week nor does wAMWX, but GYX sounds a bit more hopeful about a cold front Tuesday and an active pattern following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 slight -NAO towards the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Until Will and other pros tell us to hang it up, I'll still hold out hope for some parting gifts this winter. Unfortunately, we're probably waiting until after 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Aweful. I would use caution with ripping and reading those rmm plots. @tombo82685 The GEFS forecast is complete garbage on that plot. Convection dosent go backwards like that. If you look at the vp200 maps you can see a standing wave over Australia. The rmm plots are focusing too much on the lead wave and then jump to the actual mjo wave over Australia. This will be in p8 between the 8th and 10th. The hot take this winter has become the awful rmm plots that chase convection everywhere. Stick with the vp200 maps or the euro forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Aweful. Check the euro mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 33 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Exactly. I see the pattern getting worse, subsequently to this. That western ridge is getting beat down and the flow goes zonal. That's not an "epic" look at all. Well when I look at long term I want to see how it evolves. We already said punt the next 10 says so beyond that is important! Doesn’t mean it happens but the medium to long range looks hopefully. Whether it’s right is another story obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I'm not even sure what most folks are looking for.....if you are looking for 2015, you prob aren't getting it. There aren't a lot of years where we get totally ratted with a frigid cold Canada. Lots of really good Februarys have little or no ridging out west in the PNA region....Feb 2014, Feb 2013, Feb 2005, Feb 1994, Feb 1993, Feb 1972, Feb 1969, Feb 1962, Feb 1958, Some of those years had NAO help and some didn't. Almost all of them had EPO ridging. Remains to be seen whether we will have NAO help or not, but we live in New England....there isn't some magic pattern where the stars have to align all perfectly to get a big month....maybe a 2015 with 100 inches in 3 weeks? Sure I'll grant you that. But not a 20-40 inch month. Buuuuut......It's easy to become hyper focused on phase 8 MJOs and 2015 ridges over the Rockies when you are snake bit....I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Check the euro mjo The CFS is a bit of a compromise between the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Personally I would take the Climate Diagnostic Center (CDC) indices with a grain of incredulity for the time being ... until it can be assessed and/or clarified one way or the other that they have completely shaken the cob-webs from the appropriations shut down. That agency just came on line just Monday after some 40 days of hiatus... It may be nothing - but I'd try to make that certain if I were y'all. Supposing their bar-graphs ARE entirely clad... that's an odd look - one of the reasons why I wonder about their data sourcing ... That WPO being unwavering positive while the EPO is dropping equal proportions out to the end ...strikes me as a processing that ran suspect - just going by experience in using. The PNA also looks aberrantly deeply negative compared to the only modestly deep Climate Prediction Center - which apparently stayed on line during the shut down, if perhaps only because it was better automated... I don't know. But simply put, a modestly negative PNA at CPC doesn't fit a near historically deep SD at CDC like that. It just over all looks odd and since there's a reason at all to suspect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not even sure what most folks are looking for.....if you are looking for 2015, you prob aren't getting it. There aren't a lot of years where we get totally ratted with a frigid cold Canada. Lots of really good Februarys have little or no ridging out west in the PNA region....Feb 2014, Feb 2013, Feb 2005, Feb 1994, Feb 1993, Feb 1972, Feb 1969, Feb 1962, Feb 1958, Some of those years had NAO help and some didn't. Almost all of them had EPO ridging. Remains to be seen whether we will have NAO help or not, but we live in New England....there isn't some magic pattern where the stars have to align all perfectly to get a big month....maybe a 2015 with 100 inches in 3 weeks? Sure I'll grant you that. But not a 20-40 inch month. Buuuuut......It's easy to become hyper focused on phase 8 MJOs and 2015 ridges over the Rockies when you are snake bit....I get it. Just calling out the people who say the pattern, post day 10 looks "epic". Looks serviceable with cold lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 So many melts we’ve lost track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just calling out the people who say the pattern, post day 10 looks "epic". Looks serviceable with cold lurking. I think it looks epic. Ground truth may be otherwise but NAO blocking with a favorable epo screams snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 The way it’s going this winter watch that thing go into 8 and 1 and we still get skunked LOL. Bottom line is it may not matter if a traditional PNA ridge doesn’t form and the NAO doesn’t go negative. It’s possible though if we go into 8 and 1 that due to wavelength decrease we may get some sort of fluke event or two in late February or March even in a meh pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just calling out the people who say the pattern, post day 10 looks "epic". Looks serviceable with cold lurking. That's probably fair...I don't think it is epic, but we're probably getting into a lot of semantics. It's definitely a good pattern out there. Whether it comes to fruition or not is certainly reasonable debate. The tropical forcing does seem to support it, but we know how that can work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 It's just folks admitting that things don't seem to be progressing much....it's always the 11-15 day that looks good. At some point, you have to consider that just a mirage of sorts. We have a good six weeks to get some decent winter...but losing the next 10 days really hurts us...I think that's what's setting in on most folks. Hopefully we can score going forward...but it is getting tough to keep a positive outlook especially when we are losing 10 days of absolute Peak Climo...that hurts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Ehhh, that setup tells me not to put away the Teak Oil in Southern CT. Lots of elbow grease workin that turd to a mirrored lacquer finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.