HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 As currently advertised, next week is rain to Quebec City. The w.e. in far NNE pack will be quite impressive come Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even with the 4" Picks is still Debbie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 It would be nice to get a big PNA ridge over the intermountain west....that would protect from cutters. But if we can't have that, we have a -EPO and perhaps a -NAO which is very good. It's too bad that we lost the overrunning next week on all the guidance. That could've been a way to reverse the bad fortune....sneak in an event like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As currently advertised, next week is rain to Quebec City. The w.e. in far NNE pack will be quite impressive come Spring. It's already the highest SWE in the mountain snowpack in the decade I've been coring. But that's not surprising considering it's a 1 in 65 year type snowpack based on the COOP stake. Mansfield probably around 100" on the ground after last night's fluff bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be nice to get a big PNA ridge over the intermountain west....that would protect from cutters. But if we can't have that, we have a -EPO and perhaps a -NAO which is very good. It's too bad that we lost the overrunning next week on all the guidance. That could've been a way to reverse the bad fortune....sneak in an event like that. I wouldn't say all the overrunning is lost. Big cutter but follow up looks further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I wouldn't say all the overrunning is lost. Big cutter but follow up looks further south. Yeah the follow up wave still has a decent shot though it was a real turd on the euro last night. We'll see if that comes back. In a decent year, it probably would. Negative EPO with big time cold in Canada tends to trend most of those types of events colder for us....but in this season the shortwaves tend to line up to make sure that we always flip heads and the storm goes through Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the follow up wave still has a decent shot though it was a real turd on the euro last night. We'll see if that comes back. In a decent year, it probably would. Negative EPO with big time cold in Canada tends to trend most of those types of events colder for us....but in this season the shortwaves tend to line up to make sure that we always flip heads and the storm goes through Ottawa. Despite people hating the warmup it actually feeds the ridge in Greenland setting up the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Despite people hating the warmup it actually feeds the ridge in Greenland setting up the NAO Have a feeling it’s a few days of 40’s and rain vs 65-70 to ski country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Have a feeling it’s a few days of 40’s and rain vs 65-70 to ski country Torch to Tamarack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 The past 2 Februarys have had big warmups, but at the end of the month I think...They were followed by snowy Marches, so with this warmup coming early in the month, maybe that leads to a snowy second half of the month rather than March? Hopefully..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I like yours better. I hope it stays the course for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Let the whiny bitches come out in full force Call it whining. I call what's transpired, reality. Live in the here and now and relish it all. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Winter 2018-19 motto "It's 10 days away" 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 With the tenure of this winter thus far IMBY, I’m legit psyched for the warm-up. Let’s just blowtorch this shite. In past winters these feelings would be 100% blasphemous, but, this winter has beaten me down like Jack Dempsey pounding on Jess Willard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Call it whining. I call what's transpired, reality. Live in the here and now and relish it all. It is whiny as hell. Deal with it, Cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Torch to Tamarack. Yay! No 65-70 here, though. In Farmington, it's only gotten to the 60s once in 125 Februarys, 61 on 2/21/1994. Might get into the 40s, however, which hasn't happened since 12/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be nice to get a big PNA ridge over the intermountain west....that would protect from cutters. But if we can't have that, we have a -EPO and perhaps a -NAO which is very good. It's too bad that we lost the overrunning next week on all the guidance. That could've been a way to reverse the bad fortune....sneak in an event like that. Yeah... agreed. For winter enthusiastic cause and "affect" ...that's a loss. From a more purely operational Meteorological perspective, that was really interesting how that did that. I originally advised folks back-down on the amount of warm latitude/penetration ..as typically those tend to normalize as they get closer. That was one. But two .. the -AO and a flat-line PNA (along with an emerging -EPO) screamed overrunning/ice potential given to the calendar and climo and gunk. Low and behold, a day or two later and the operational Euro does exactly that! Didn't see the flop back in the other direction though. Admit to being a bit surprised to see that not only happen, but got even warmer than the previous warm push. In total across the last four days...we have a warm push, ice storm, to even warmer push, in the large scale oscillation. Yeah...we could argue that's bad continuity and perhaps there still yet time to modulate colder again - sure... And we'd be right. But I also admit to having a little bit of trouble fending off the Stockholm Syndrome ...and having to 'sympathize with the captors' on a bad winter and just figure disappointment has been the predominating signal above all other, whether physical or immaterial. Kinda of being darkly sarcastic there a little of course. 60 days... Trying to maintain an objective vigil... It'a like the Bellicheck claim, "we don't care about the game last week; we only care about the game this Sunday" - trends notwithstanding, there is a certain wisdom to not being clouded by the past. It's certainly possible that we could cash in on significant winter returns in 1/6th of a year's worth of realistic chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, tamarack said: Yay! No 65-70 here, though. In Farmington, it's only gotten to the 60s once in 125 Februarys, 61 on 2/21/1994. Might get into the 40s, however, which hasn't happened since 12/17. You're lucky to see 40s in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 50 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Winter 2018-19 motto "It's 10 days away" Agreed... that's a whopper GEFs teleconnector convergence signal there. ... An expression I invented ten years ago to point out when there are multiple mass-field statistical packages ...some disparate, all pointing their weapons at a given location. It's like World War II ? The U.S. and the Soviets technically were not allies ... but they pointed their bombs at the same adversary. Anyway, the PNA could conjure an event alone... So to could the EPO ... as such, the NAO... Having them all three do so, suggests a hemispherically -footed root and thus adds confidence to the look at hand - in this case, a cold and stormy one. This doesn't say anything about longevity ... In fact, the WPO being so positive ... that's not really a stable Pacific. In any case, I just got done commiserating with Will that there's still (imho) some 60 days in which we can more realisticaly (potentially) get it done... It just may be hard to see things that way for the lay person staring through the lens of where we have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agreed... that's a whopper GEFs teleconnector convergence signal there. ... An expression I invented ten years ago to point out when there are multiple mass-field statistical packages ...some disparate, all pointing their weapons at a given location. It's like World War II ? The U.S. and the Soviets technically were not allies ... but they pointed their bombs at the same adversary. Anyway, the PNA could conjure an event alone... So to could the EPO ... as such, the NAO... Having them all three do so, suggests a hemispherically -footed root and thus adds confidence to the look at hand - in this case, a cold and stormy one. This doesn't say anything about longevity ... In fact, the WPO being so positive ... that's not really a stable Pacific. In any case, I just got done commiserating with Will that there's still (imho) some 60 days in which we can more realisticaly (potentially) get it done... It just may be hard to see things that way for the lay person staring through the lens of where we have been. As you well know, teleconnectors are just the signal. How they play will have a huge impact on any real event that transpires. We can have a -NAO but if its too far East, we can cut. We can pop a PNA ridge as well, but if it's too far west we can cut. Until I see legit optimism in operational runs under 5 days, I'm skeptical of what any charts show. I'm not an optimist. I'm a realist. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agreed... that's a whopper GEFs teleconnector convergence signal there. ... An expression I invented ten years ago to point out when there are multiple mass-field statistical packages ...some disparate, all pointing their weapons at a given location. It's like World War II ? The U.S. and the Soviets technically were not allies ... but they pointed their bombs at the same adversary. Anyway, the PNA could conjure an event alone... So to could the EPO ... as such, the NAO... Having them all three do so, suggests a hemispherically -footed root and thus adds confidence to the look at hand - in this case, a cold and stormy one. This doesn't say anything about longevity ... In fact, the WPO being so positive ... that's not really a stable Pacific. In any case, I just got done commiserating with Will that there's still (imho) some 60 days in which we can more realisticaly (potentially) get it done... It just may be hard to see things that way for the lay person staring through the lens of where we have been. I def. adopted that....use it in my blogs quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looking at the QBO data and it’s looks like the December value was at 8. The positive QBO could be making it harder for high latitude blocking to set up. It’s like the SSW wants to set up blocking but the state of the QBO isn’t letting it happen. The progression does look similar to 94-95. However, I still have hope for the NAO to turn negative as the long range guys keep thinking it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 50 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Loading up on Hawaiian Tropic futures as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Don't forget your sunscreen for the Pats parade on Tuesday (knock on wood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Many edits as the voice function makes me sound dumb and drunk - wait I am in Vegas... Does that not suggest the possibility that high pressure is centered over Southeast Quebec and will build up into the other weaker pressure that’s near to Greenland, pushing that that low west of Greenland to the south and then that the ridge in the EPO position will bridge across the pole and somewhere between 3 to 5 days after this chart that you’re showing the sand that you are sitting in in that beach chair will actually be snow as that trough heads out of the west and goes all that night pressure to our north being fed by the -epo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 54 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: As you well know, teleconnectors are just the signal. How they play will have a huge impact on any real event that transpires. We can have a -NAO but if its too far East, we can cut. We can pop a PNA ridge as well, but if it's too far west we can cut. Until I see legit optimism in operational runs under 5 days, I'm skeptical of what any charts show. I'm not an optimist. I'm a realist. Optimism and realism are not mutually exclusive Debbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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