February 2019 Discussion I

[NorEastermass128]

It appears that January will end with a whimper.  The system for early next week looks like more dog dung for SNE.  We now turn our sights onto February with most entering the final month of met winter with significantly BN snowfall to date.  

Discuss.

(Keep the discussion about the early week system out of this thread.)

[NorEastermass128]

1980s pattern of cutter to cold/dry looks to continue looking at the LR into Feb. #ratter

[CoastalWx]

[NorEastermass128]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Much need rain. Fill up those resovoirs before the summer drought. 

[ORH_wxman]

Time to cancel the rest of winter. 

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Time to cancel the rest of winter. 

Isotherm and to an extent Don are still optimistic for a good period.

CFS weeklies still look good and so does Weeklies.

I am holding on to hope as its pointless to give up until its over.

That being said, so far only 2001 2002 and 1997 1998 had less snow for the whole winter. Its actually fascinating to me how the pattern is unfolding. Not having to use my snow thrower all year is a first for me.

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Isotherm and to an extent Don are still optimistic for a good period.

CFS weeklies still look good and so does Weeklies.

I am holding on to hope as its pointless to give up until its over.

That being said, so far only 2001 2002 and 1997 1998 had less snow for the whole winter. Its actually fascinating to me how the pattern is unfolding. Not having to use my snow thrower all year is a first for me.

It's the anto-2015. What can go wrong, has gone wrong. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's the anto-2015. What can go wrong, has gone wrong. 

Agreed, and its really fascinating to see it unfold. 2015 in my area was not as good as eastern areas early (meaning 6 to 12 inchers instead of 16 plusers),  however that was my 2nd snowiest March next to last year. I write this to give myself hope that something breaks right.

Note - at some point I may start rooting for a shut out if this continues purely from a fascination standpoint. Like when the Russians started rooting for Rocky towards the end of the flight!

 

 

[CoastalWx]

If we fail to get a -NAO, I'm donkey punching all these MOFO's who have been stroking it to the stratosphere since November. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Big un 

[WeatherX]

Deep, deep nape tanning. RIP Winter 2018-2019

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

The euro is retrograding the PV that swings through back up into the Arctic and over toward AK. That's allowing the huge trough west/ridge east couplet to develop for early February. It may not happen though since there is a ton of spread on the ensembles. But that is why you see some changes in that period. That wasn't forecast even as recently as 24-36 hours ago. 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s hope. I’ll take 70s like last two Feb.

[SnowGoose69]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro is retrograding the PV that swings through back up into the Arctic and over toward AK. That's allowing the huge trough west/ridge east couplet to develop for early February. It may not happen though since there is a ton of spread on the ensembles. But that is why you see some changes in that period. That wasn't forecast even as recently as 24-36 hours ago. 

 

On the Op run it appears transient,...you can see by 240 the trof is rapidly progressing towards the East Coast

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

On the Op run it appears transient,...you can see by 240 the trof is rapidly progressing towards the East Coast

Well yeah. I don't expect it to last. But it's a change even if it's a 2 day torch. But considering it's a pretty new development I wouldn't trust it yet. Tip mentioned it wouldnt be surprising if it ends up pretty muted which I agree with. Could be something that is like a 12 hour warm sector or something. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Well yeah. I don't expect it to last. But it's a change even if it's a 2 day torch. But considering it's a pretty new development I wouldn't trust it yet. Tip mentioned it wouldnt be surprising if it ends up pretty muted which I agree with. Could be something that is like a 12 hour warm sector or something. 

 

The Op Euro has been cutter happy for a solid decade now beyond Day 5-6 in any pattern that is even somewhat conducive to systems cutting.  The first upgrade in 09 started it and the 2nd in 2014 seemed to make it even worse. 

[weathafella]

Some years it wants to snow.   This isn’t one of them.

[mahk_webstah]

Regarding your other post, yes let’s just declare a ratter. I mean it is let’s be honest.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s hope. I’ll take 70s like last two Feb.

Absolutely 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If we fail to get a -NAO, I'm donkey punching all these MOFO's who have been stroking it to the stratosphere since November. 

And you should...

SSW != -NAO....

It doesn't even = -AO ...

There's a lot of people in the game that write well ( ) ... and have learned a bit about this or that, and how a lot of the indices correlate ...without out really understanding the nature of the correlations.

That's the nice way of putting it

Charlatanism can be an accident too ... from intelligent, well-intended individuals that may just have gotten ahead of the learning curve before garnering the necessary wisdom to put it in the right perspectives. 

First of all (not for you per se, but the general reader) ... a primer on the NAO and AO.

1 ... the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) shares domain space with the AO (Arctic Oscillation).  That means the AO and NAO can and do part company within their respective EOF ( the mathematical model that determines their phase states...) results.  

2 ... Particularly in the case of the NAO... transient mid-latitude phenomenon passing through the domain can modulate that index regardless of any SSW leading/forcing... Such that the NAO's correlation with the SSW is comparatively less than the AO.  The AO may be suffering a very positive phase state... while a height ridge rolls through the NAO... and the two will thus have a more weakly negative correlation.  And vice versa...  Much of the time, because of their shared domain space they will tend to move together... which is why they have a longer term positive correlation coefficient... But not always tsk tsk.  You may as well extend this conceptually into the EPO as well, because the same disconnect vs connection is present between the AO and it too.

3 ... The AO's correlation with the SSW is not 1::1 ... Warm events are often observed firing off at altitude high up in the stratosphere .... yet, do not ultimately go on to correlate with any apparent AO response.  The critical pattern of behavior, "down-welling" (or moving warm anomaly down in altitude) needs to occur and interact with the tropopausal sigma level ... which, 

4 ... That takes times... some 20 days when averaging the apparent propagating SSW (downwellers) against historic AO indexes. This statement was rendered by yours truly and I was annoyed how few really wrapped their minds around it, or even paid attention.  When the warm anomaly first surged in last month ... I mean... like 7 or 10 days later and I'm reading about how the models were beginning to detect it's forcing... WRONG.  ... Pattern of course failed ... and that led to some discrediting of SSW, falsely, in some, but also just forgetfulness by others. Fact of the matter is, the AO descent we are seeing now is probably if not likely more related to that influence ...  But, as all these points in total should imply ... even if the AO does tank for a couple of weeks immediately going forward, that really doesn't mean the NAO has to do anything.  The EPO could go negative ... We could observe a block over in no-man's land of N. Eurasia... etc etc.   

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The Op Euro has been cutter happy for a solid decade now beyond Day 5-6 in any pattern that is even somewhat conducive to systems cutting.  The first upgrade in 09 started it and the 2nd in 2014 seemed to make it even worse. 

I've actually noticed this too, but only in the last five years.

I wasn't frankly paying attention to that mid and/or extended range behavior prior to 2009 though.  I seemed to recall thinking all models were mutable beyond D4 back in that era but I'll take your word for it.

My question is... I wonder if that's endemic to North American mid-latitudes, or if that's a global bias in the model? It does seem to want to curl systems poleward almost as fast as it generates them beyond D4 or 4.5 or so.  I recall some systems back in 2010 (I think it was...) that were modeled by the Euro to cut toward Lake Superior really fast, yet we end up with those front wall snow thumps with lows smearing out under blocking the model apparently missed in Ontario ...triple point and so forth. 

[MJO812]

12z gefs has the Nao,Ao and epo becoming favorable. That would bold well moving forward.

[Go Kart Mozart]

This would be nice.  The euro suite shows a lower amplitude 7, while Canadian has us mired in the Maritime Continent.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro is retrograding the PV that swings through back up into the Arctic and over toward AK. That's allowing the huge trough west/ridge east couplet to develop for early February. It may not happen though since there is a ton of spread on the ensembles. But that is why you see some changes in that period. That wasn't forecast even as recently as 24-36 hours ago. 

I am now seeing forecasts for February go warmer than January.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If we fail to get a -NAO, I'm donkey punching all these MOFO's who have been stroking it to the stratosphere since November. 

what about the people who thought this winter would be snowier than last winter haha?

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s hope. I’ll take 70s like last two Feb.

and March/April like last year?

[mahk_webstah]

If the repeated runs of fabulous weeklies then out wrong or underdone, why believe the trough West ridge east pattern?  I mean there is always Ti p's cosmic dildo but we did have an SAW and we do have a wet pattern in general so why not assume something in between the 2 extremes?  And what to make of suddenly better MJO?  

i mean, I have let go, given up assumptions of epicosity and in doing so feel open to the possibility of a nice wintry month ahead starting with 4-8 up here in 3 days.  This pack has a strong chance to survive and then the smaller events become more enjoyable.

[EastonSN+]

[NorEastermass128]

Meh