hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baum said: I just chuckle. A system 48 hrs ago had a substantial shift within 18 hrs, and yet everyone still jumps on every model run as if it's the correct solution. The reason I'm so quick to go with the northern solutions is that this system doesn't necessarily make as much sense to go south as the last one did. With the last system, there were a lot of things like the shearing out behavior and deep snow to the SW that supported a significant shift south, and it made sense. But with this system, it's coming from a different direction, it's much stronger and the snow out NW isn't nearly as deep or widespread. It makes decent sense this storm is doing what it's doing, at least to me. A south shift this time doesn't make nearly as much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 WPC sure isn't wanting to buy the northern shift yet. Track looks similar to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 A northern solution and a southern solution more like the Euro are both plausible. At this time, the preponderance of the models would say north, but preponderance doesn't always lead to the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, hlcater said: The reason I'm so quick to go with the northern solutions is that this system doesn't necessarily make as much sense to go south as the last one did. With the last system, there were a lot of things like the shearing out behavior and deep snow to the SW that supported a significant shift south, and it made sense. But with this system, it's coming from a different direction, it's much stronger and the snow out NW isn't nearly as deep or widespread. It makes decent sense this storm is doing what it's doing, at least to me. A south shift this time doesn't make nearly as much sense. I preface this by saying that I think the snowcover argument is overused and abused, but if you're going to use it in this case, then why wouldn't you lean on a southern track. That is a lot of snow on the ground in parts of IA/IL/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 question for the PROS what is the Euro seeing that the others arent or what are the others seeing that the Euro isnt? And what time does the 18Z EURO come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I preface this by saying that I think the snowcover argument is overused and abused, but if you're going to use it in this case, then why wouldn't you lean on a southern track. That is a lot of snow on the ground in parts of IA/IL/MO. LOL at the MSP and just east screw zone..now watch this track even more north to fill in that gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: I preface this by saying that I think the snowcover argument is overused and abused, but if you're going to use it in this case, then why wouldn't you lean on a southern track. That is a lot of snow on the ground in parts of IA/IL/MO. What was interesting to me at least is that big hole over NE/KS and E CO. Since that's roughly where the WAA is being drawn from, I figured that it should have an easier time moving the baroclinic zone farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I preface this by saying that I think the snowcover argument is overused and abused, but if you're going to use it in this case, then why wouldn't you lean on a southern track. That is a lot of snow on the ground in parts of IA/IL/MO. The snowcover argument is as annoying as the Sun angle argument. They are factors that are always weighed far too heavily by many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: question for the PROS what is the Euro seeing that the others arent or what are the others seeing that the Euro isnt? And what time does the 18Z EURO come out? Just quickly glancing at it, one difference I see is the wave is a bit less amped and more positive tilt longer than more northern guidance. There's probably more to it, but that's was just a quick glance. 18z ECMWF will be out after 5PM sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I'd just about rule out decent accumulations down there as well at this point, unfortunately.Rain has entered the forecast for us on my WGN App. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Is it really a northern shift or just the majority of operational models favoring a more northerly track? They're on the northern end of the ensemble spread and could be outliers in their own right, we just don't know. Most important element is where the system enters the CONUS. Euro still has a strong surface low for a clipper/hybrid at 997 mb over southern IA then weakening a bit eastward, but most importantly it enters the CONUS farther west than the farther north op models. Hate to overuse the lack of sampling argument, but I really think the multiple moving parts, complex evolution, angle of approach, make it that we're unlikely to have consensus until we get more observed data on the important features. Chiefly the primary wave coming ashore into northern BC later tomorrow. I continue to think that I-80 and north in IL into southern WI will do well, with highest totals I-88 and north, and going to hold with that thinking until things become more clear. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Is it really a northern shift or just the majority of operational models favoring a more northerly track? They're on the northern end of the ensemble spread and could be outliers in their own right, we just don't know. Most important element is where the system enters the CONUS. Euro still has a strong surface low for a clipper/hybrid at 997 mb over southern IA then weakening a bit eastward, but most importantly it enters the CONUS farther west than the farther north op models. Hate to overuse the lack of sampling argument, but I really think the multiple moving parts, complex evolution, angle of approach, make it that we're unlikely to have consensus until we get more observed data on the important features. Chiefly the primary wave coming ashore into northern BC later tomorrow. I continue to think that I-80 and north in IL into southern WI will do well, with highest totals I-88 and north and going to hold with that thinking until things become more clear. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Echoed my sentiments exactly but articulated them much better than I could've. So much of this has to do with the character of the system as it enters the CONUS. These northern biases (and southern) are probably what you might expect for 48-60 hours out. Stranger track jumps have certainly happened than a shift from N IL to S WI especially at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Is it really a northern shift or just the majority of operational models favoring a more northerly track? They're on the northern end of the ensemble spread and could be outliers in their own right, we just don't know. Most important element is where the system enters the CONUS. Euro still has a strong surface low for a clipper/hybrid at 997 mb over southern IA then weakening a bit eastward, but most importantly it enters the CONUS farther west than the farther north op models. Hate to overuse the lack of sampling argument, but I really think the multiple moving parts, complex evolution, angle of approach, make it that we're unlikely to have consensus until we get more observed data on the important features. Chiefly the primary wave coming ashore into northern BC later tomorrow. I continue to think that I-80 and north in IL into southern WI will do well, with highest totals I-88 and north and going to hold with that thinking until things become more clear. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk After lurking and occasionally posting on these threads for close to 7 years now, I admire the reality check you bring to all of us armchair forecasters who just model watch (saying that with myself included) and freak out about every shift! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 18z GEFS jumped north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 18z GEFS jumped north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Is it really a northern shift or just the majority of operational models favoring a more northerly track? They're on the northern end of the ensemble spread and could be outliers in their own right, we just don't know. Most important element is where the system enters the CONUS. Euro still has a strong surface low for a clipper/hybrid at 997 mb over southern IA then weakening a bit eastward, but most importantly it enters the CONUS farther west than the farther north op models. Hate to overuse the lack of sampling argument, but I really think the multiple moving parts, complex evolution, angle of approach, make it that we're unlikely to have consensus until we get more observed data on the important features. Chiefly the primary wave coming ashore into northern BC later tomorrow. I continue to think that I-80 and north in IL into southern WI will do well, with highest totals I-88 and north, and going to hold with that thinking until things become more clear. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk A thing I noticed even in the short term that I am sure you did as well is in Canada the evolution of the vort for this storm, starts out small then breaks in two, originally the storm going south was focusing on the southern half of the vort, now it is focusing on the northern and eastern half of the vort. I question if it even splits to begin with, which would have huge ramifications down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Will be a pretty major disappointment for ECMWF if the GFS scores this coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 A thing I noticed even in the short term that I am sure you did as well is in Canada the evolution of the vort for this storm, starts out small then breaks in two, originally the storm going south was focusing on the southern half of the vort, now it is focusing on the northern and eastern half of the vort. I question if it even splits to begin with, which would have huge ramifications down the line.Yep great point, yet another reason to take a step back from reading too much into every operational run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 24 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: #20 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: #20 please Don't you prefer #8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, Maneee said: Don't you prefer #8? Yeah..but 20 is safer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Starting to worry about it coming north of even here... Wouldn't that be typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Yeah..but 20 is safer Ha! True! Spoken like a true snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: Starting to worry about it coming north of even here... Wouldn't that be typical. Puerto Rico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: Starting to worry about it coming north of even here... Wouldn't that be typical. Personally, I'd say it's far more than typical for these things to come north of Puerto Rico. This one should be a lock for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Powerball said: Personally, I'd say it's far more than typical for these things to come north of Puerto Rico. This one should be a lock. It's 77/68 in San Juan right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 59 minutes ago, mimillman said: Will be a pretty major disappointment for ECMWF if the GFS scores this coup It would be an embarrassment. GFS is a trash model. Alas, even a blind squirrel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: It would be an embarrassment. GFS is a trash model. Alas, even a blind squirrel... I think you and me are lined up about the same for this, so we may be in the same boat whatever that is lol. The trend definitely doesn't seem to be our friend, but having the Euro on our side is somewhat encouraging. Obviously the QC has had an exceptional lucky streak that started last March, so you gotta figure our luck would run out sometime lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 18z ECMWF came in a bit north. SLP previously tracked south of I-80 in IL, now tracks along I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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