RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM looks about the same to a bit north to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 nope at 66 getting ready to go into west central wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Nam moved the heaviest snow swath even further north. Has consolation heavy band behind cf further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM is a smidge north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM big hit for Grand Rapids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Trough this run actually went neutral tilt earlier, thus a bit farther north solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Interesting to see how the offices are reading the models. NWS Buffalo AFD is going with the further north version and bringing in rain chances for a lot of their area, but keeping those closest to the border and lake ontario snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Interesting to see how the offices are reading the models. NWS Buffalo AFD is going with the further north version and bringing in rain chances for a lot of their area, but keeping those closest to the border and lake ontario snowier. From NWS Northern Indiana earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NWS Chicago still not moving wagons North just yet but keeping an eye on things... "Some of the American 12z operational model runs have tried to shift the track of the clipper a bit farther north, namely across far southern WI on Monday. This certainly adds some uncertainty to the forecast of snow amounts to the area, as such a track could keep the heaviest snow into Southern WI. However, the ensembles do not necessarily support such a slow and northward track of this low. For example the 12Z GEFS mean favors a track farther south and a slightly faster than the 12z operational run of the GFS. This farther south solution also continues to be favored by the 12z ECMWF and its ensemble. Overall, this is a very complex pattern in which this clipper will be evolving in, and as such the individual model runs are likely to continue to waver a bit in the track of the system into the weekend. While the farther north track seen in the GFS and NAM do add some uncertainty, we have opted to not change forecast snow amounts much at this time. As such, at this time, we continue to favor the heaviest snow along and north of I-80. However, this will have to be fined tuned in the coming days." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Last storm brought about 18 hours of above 32F and destroyed a 7" snow pack down to about 1". We've slowly got the snow pack back to about 3-4" but it wont be able to withstand another deluge of rain and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 This could be the biggest hit yet for the southern 1/3 of WI. After another rather zzzzzz period in early-mid January, winter sure got real in a hurry. At least it's doing so sooner than '17-'18 did, so with any luck it won't linger into the back half of April again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Incase anyone was wondering, the 18z ICON shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 33 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: NWS Chicago still not moving wagons North just yet but keeping an eye on things... "Some of the American 12z operational model runs have tried to shift the track of the clipper a bit farther north, namely across far southern WI on Monday. This certainly adds some uncertainty to the forecast of snow amounts to the area, as such a track could keep the heaviest snow into Southern WI. However, the ensembles do not necessarily support such a slow and northward track of this low. For example the 12Z GEFS mean favors a track farther south and a slightly faster than the 12z operational run of the GFS. This farther south solution also continues to be favored by the 12z ECMWF and its ensemble. Overall, this is a very complex pattern in which this clipper will be evolving in, and as such the individual model runs are likely to continue to waver a bit in the track of the system into the weekend. While the farther north track seen in the GFS and NAM do add some uncertainty, we have opted to not change forecast snow amounts much at this time. As such, at this time, we continue to favor the heaviest snow along and north of I-80. However, this will have to be fined tuned in the coming days." When is it ever NOT a complex situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: Incase anyone was wondering, the 18z ICON shifted south Praise be! /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 18z GFS is going north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GFS is going north too. Slightly faster as a result too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Unless the 0Z suite changes, probably will be able to throw in the towel locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 18Z GFS looks nearly the same - shifted heavier snows east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Unless the 0Z suite changes, probably will be able to throw in the towel locally I'd wait till 0z's tomorrow evening for here and out your way. I-80 on south can throw it in now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I'd wait till 0z's tomorrow evening for here and out your way. I-80 on south can throw it in now though. The heaviest band should be north of 80. Would not rule out sig snow there yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 It’ll be interesting to see what GEFS members do. My guess is they move north but will be interested to see if there’s still a large spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 While the GFS has been too far north on the previous few systems. I just don't see a way where we don't get rain from this system as IC is further south than the current farthest south deterministic models. Strong WAA, retreating high pressure, strong low tracking north of us. Stars are aligning for a warm system down here. Unless the baroclinic zone jumps south over 100 miles, which I don't see happening, our chances aren't good. Much of MN and WI serve to do well from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I'd wait till 0z's tomorrow evening for here and out your way. I-80 on south can throw it in now though. For heaviest snow yes. But can't disregard some decent accumulations possible though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: For heaviest snow yes. But can't disregard some decent accumulations possible though Decent accumulations of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: It’ll be interesting to see what GEFS members do. My guess is they move north but will be interested to see if there’s still a large spread 3rd and long. Euro a south outlier, but I suppose that if we need one for our team, it’s a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: For heaviest snow yes. But can't disregard some decent accumulations possible though I don't know about that far south. Trends are not good for down your way, just too far south on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I'm not throwing the towel in yet. Want to see adequate sampling of everything. Current trends are bad but as we seen this winter last second shifts are possible. Wouldn't take much of one to get me back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: For heaviest snow yes. But can't disregard some decent accumulations possible though I'd just about rule out decent accumulations down there as well at this point, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 3rd and long. Euro a south outlier, but I suppose that if we need one for our team, it’s a good one. I just chuckle. A system 48 hrs ago had a substantial shift within 18 hrs, and yet everyone still jumps on every model run as if it's the correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: I'd just about rule out decent accumulations down there as well at this point, unfortunately. Stop raining on my parade. Ha. I mean I know it is slim to none but let me live in denial a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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