Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Fairly good agreement on a track near or north of I-80, at this time. ORD to GRB is probably a good guess for a zone of heavier snows right now. For us south of the track, time to close the shades. Maybe peek out on Sunday afternoon or evening, just to make sure. Alas, hopefully rainfall here is light. Don’t want a repeat of the last event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Fairly good agreement on a track near or north of I-80, at this time. ORD to GRB is probably a good guess for a zone of heavier snows right now. For us south of the track, time to close the shades. Maybe peek out on Sunday afternoon or evening, just to make sure. Alas, hopefully rainfall here is light. Don’t want a repeat of the last event here. DTX said this about track, though not sure if it will apply out your way... The wide moisture swath across southern Lower Michigan appears to be less dependent on the precise track of the surface low at this stage in the forecast which suggests increasing potential for substantial/headline worthy snow accumulation Monday through Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 ORD plumes avg 4" at this point, early out. I don't understand the moisture rich depictions happening - seems overblown to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 47 minutes ago, King James said: Skilling Interesting. Pretty big difference between what his graphic showed last night. More south. Going against the model trends. Skilling doesn't often put these out anymore either. Usually done by his team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Interesting. Pretty big difference between what his graphic showed last night. More south. Going against the model trends. Skilling doesn't often put these out anymore either. Usually done by his team. I'd be surprised if Skillings involvement is much more than looking at the work his team has done and saying "yeah, that's not stupid - go ahead" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6ZGFS. As noted 6ZGEFS further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, DaveNay said: I'd be surprised if Skillings involvement is much more than looking at the work his team has done and saying "yeah, that's not stupid - go ahead" True. At the very bottom they put who it was written by. This one was written Tom and Bill Snyder. Bringing back the big boys for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Jeez models showing a solid 3-6” for Toledo on Monday with a serious serious shot of cold behind it. -6° for a high on Wednesday is beyond absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Forecast totals out. Look like some nice snow for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, DaveNay said: I'd be surprised if Skillings involvement is much more than looking at the work his team has done and saying "yeah, that's not stupid - go ahead" I no longer follow Tom much, but would find it hard to believe he isn't deep into what is going to be out there. He's too much of a weather geek. Perhaps he incorporates some old school gut meteorology into the equation as opposed to simple model worship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Reviewing SREF plumes and GEFS member plumes and spreads this morning, there is still quite a spread of 850 data, 2mT and QPF contributing to the derived uncertainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12Z NAM with a track thru southern Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Models playing the “lets all shift north at 48 hrs out” game. Hoping to see a correction south as we have with the other storms. Should have some sampling tonight correct? NAM takes the low wayyy north, track it over MSN. Not putting stock into it, but another piece for the north trend overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6z ECMWF jumper north, with a track between the IL/WI border and ORD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12Z NAM with a track thru southern WisconsinFurthest north out of any run yet I believe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 you put much credence in most models moving north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 ORD plumes avg 4" at this point, early out. I don't understand the moisture rich depictions happening - seems overblown to me.It’s a hybrid system, and it’ll have plenty of moisture to work with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Not buying the low will track north of the Illinois border...yet. On the last storm, were all models (including the NAM) still north at this timeframe? I remember it was within 48 hours they all started to converge south, but can’t remember if there was an outlier out around hour 72-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Trends are definitely concerning. I guess the good news is that this is a rather unusual system/track, and the models could be having difficulty due to the unique situation and/or poor sampling in the source area. Of course this may just be weenie thinking...but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Yea I'm not buying a track this north at all. I truly think the baroclinic zone will be further south. Hopefully in the coming days models will correct south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z GFS gonna be a bit north and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like GFS should come north basis H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 low over DBQ vs DVN on 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 yep 994 right over chicago at hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Great run for Minneapolis and Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 GFS a touch north, I seriously doubt the rain its showing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, janetjanet998 said: low over DBQ vs DVN on 00z Ends up very close to MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 decent front end hit for northern CHI metro..but then dryslotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea I'm not buying a track this north at all. I truly think the baroclinic zone will be further south. Hopefully in the coming days models will correct south It may correct south, but I think it's safe to say the farthest south the main/heaviest snowfall axis will set up is I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GFS a touch north, I seriously doubt the rain its showing though Has the warm air getting as far north as Flint lol. Areas south reach 40s. Wonder how radical of a temperature swing occurs if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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