madwx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 the flakes are small but it is pouring snow right now. already a dusting+ on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Trust me, there has been an internal debate on this else where. I'll let [mention=3997]RCNYILWX[/mention] explain more if he wants to. But for now it stays WWA, and an upgrade may or may not happen. I fully agree a WSW should be n effect though. Amounts will be near or exceed criteria, combined with winds, commute on a Monday morning...I'm not going to be critical of decisions made today at my office, was there for the internal discussion, certainly not an easy call. However, personally I would've done the upgrade from Lee and Ogle and eastward to Cook for many of the same reasons mentioned (impacts to rush hour, heavy rates, wind, etc) plus pretty good likelihood of getting warning criteria amounts in well under the typical 6"/12 hour standard. We'll see how it all plays out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'm not going to be critical of decisions made today at my office, was there for the internal discussion, certainly not an easy call. However, personally I would've done the upgrade from Lee and Ogle and eastward to Cook for many of the same reasons mentioned (impacts to rush hour, heavy rates, wind, etc) plus pretty good likelihood of getting warning criteria amounts in well under the typical 6"/12 hour standard. We'll see how it all plays out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah, given this new forecast snowfall from 10 minutes ago, I am not sure why the warnings weren't extended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, RyanDe680 said: Yeah, given this, I am not sure why the warnings weren't extended south. actually updated to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Southeast Michigan still lacks model consensus. HRRR showing 4-5. Canadian showing 6. GFS just came in with 8. NAM at 5. Guess we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 About 6" looks good for ORD at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 So far the snow is fairly granulated from the wind which may keep ratios in check. Was thinking 13:1 earlier, but it may be more like 10:1. Should see some nice rippage though for the next few hours before the dry slot arrives. 3-5" still looks decent, but may be on the low end of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: Southeast Michigan still lacks model consensus. HRRR showing 4-5. Canadian showing 6. GFS just came in with 8. NAM at 5. Guess we'll see what happens. 4 - 8 inches sounds like a pretty good consensus to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: So far the snow is fairly granulated from the wind which may keep ratios in check. Was thinking 13:1 earlier, but it may be more like 10:1. Should see some nice rippage though for the next few hours before the dry slot arrives. 3-5" still looks decent, but may be on the low end of that. Like the look of the radar out your way. I think your fate will be mine, roughly speaking, so try to get to 5" please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Like the look of the radar out your way. I think your fate will be mine, roughly speaking, so try to get to 5" please. Haha. Looks pretty legit out there right now with the wind whipping and fairly low visibility. Quite the change from yesterday's snow glober. Later on as the back edge approaches the snow may get more convective and hopefully the flake size improves with that. Temps will be a bit warmer as well. The good news is even if we only get 2-3" it would be a fairly dense snow which won't compact. Similar to that wind-blown event we had with the Jan 18-19th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, OHweather said: I've heard there's some debate and I'm sure both sides have merit...my lean is this should definitely be a warning, though given they just updated their grids to bump downtown Chicago to slightly over 6" and held with an advisory my guess is at this point there won't be an upgrade. I don't want to come off as looking for a reason to complain about a random NWS office. I discussed the Chicago forecast with the met putting it together at work late this afternoon and was surprised by no warning, and was wondering if anyone here was chiming in or not. Thoughts on GRR's southern counties then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Watching the regional radar loop this thing looks like it'll zip through in three hours tops. It's truckin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Thoughts on GRR's southern counties then? Since you asked, I do not agree with GRR's decision here. I think IWX boxing them in with a warning in their SW MI counties despite forecasting the exact same amounts of snow sums it up well. I am not sure why their advisory expires at 7 PM Monday when LES kicks in quickly Monday evening. GRR's southern counties will be getting heavy snow/wind during the rush with temps remaining very cold until later morning, worst conditions during and just after the rush. Then unlike northern IL they see squally lake effect snow showers with gusty winds and falling temps kick in immediately behind the storm Monday evening and lingering into Wednesday, which I think will just cause roads to just become snow packed as the cold weather sets in. The lake effect will also be good at reducing visibility as the cold lowers the DGZ below the clouds, resulting in a lot of small flakes falling with gusty winds. Not great for heavy accumulations but still will impact travel for an extended time in conjunction with winds chills getting close to their warning criteria. This all shoots down "how long it takes to get back to normal" criteria they mentioned earlier in the winter. Amounts hit criteria anyways. And it's high impact and prolonged. So I'll just leave it as I don't agree with GRR. It should probably be a long duration WSW through the day Tuesday at least, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 That convective looking band the models keep hinting at ahead of the cold front over extreme eastern IL into IN and southern MI looks interesting. Some decent PVA and lapse rates are almost steep enough for upright instability/CAPE through the DGZ. If it’s all snow (which it probably can be at least farther north?) it might be quite exciting for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Still waiting on flakes in Elmwood Park. Should be anytime now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 It has now started pouring fine flakes! Wish I could pull an all-nighter as it would probably be worth it, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1.2" as of midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Pouring pixie dust here...not a good sign.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Precip is hauling ass. Not sure we're gonna get the big totals in extreme N IL. Guess we'll see. Seeing pixie dust reports too, bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The front edge of the snow in NE IL is still saturating the dry low-level air, and lift in the DGZ improves with the heavier precip in a few hours. I think between the two flake size improves over the next few hours, though with a rather narrow DGZ and best lift focused JUST below it ratios probably aren't out of control...probably a 12-15:1 as opposed to the typical clipper 18 or 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 A bit over 2" now, but the back edge of the main snow band is less than a half hour away. Looks like we'll end up at, or just shy of 3". Nice little event, but a bit too fleeting to be noteworthy for this particular area. Still will be enough to get our snow depth up over 16", so def no complaints from me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Flake size is abysmal, straight sugar falling. Granted, it is pouring and drifting is becoming an issue. Unless flake size really kicks up a notch, going to fall short of estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Flake size is abysmal, straight sugar falling. Granted, it is pouring and drifting is becoming an issue. Unless flake size really kicks up a notch, going to fall short of estimate. FWIW the flake size stayed very small during the heaviest band when it moved through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: FWIW the flake size stayed very small during the heaviest band when it moved through here. That’s what I was afraid of. Staying awake (rocking the baby, sweet excuse to watch it snow) until this next heavier band works through, but if it’s pixie dust, it may be bed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: That’s what I was afraid of. Staying awake (rocking the baby, sweet excuse to watch it snow) until this next heavier band works through, but if it’s pixie dust, it may be bed time. It's like grains of fine sand falling out here. I'm throwing in the towel and calling it a night. If I wake up to 3 inches in the morning I'll be surprised. The timing and blowing around is going to make travel horrendous in the AM so I don't fault my daughter's school being canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yea these winds are destroying flakes. Already reports of freezing rain just to my west/southwest. This system moved way quicker than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Two things are apparent right now...Guidance that came in drier this evening (NAM/HRRR/ECMWF) had the right idea. Also, snow ratios are much lower, at least to start, than thought. The combo of these two means snowfall totals for most areas will likely under-perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Two things are apparent right now...Guidance that came in drier this evening (NAM/HRRR/ECMWF) had the right idea. Also, snow ratios are much lower, at least to start, than thought. The combo of these two means snowfall totals for most areas will likely under-perform. I went into this with the expectation of fairly low ratios down here... maybe 10 or 12 to 1 at best, so hopefully it doesn't come in lower than that. Also, it's looking like the northwestern row of counties in IN has a chance to come in with similar totals as much of Chicago metro, as that band of precip swings northeast later. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I went into this with the expectation of fairly low ratios down here... maybe 10 or 12 to 1 at best, so hopefully it doesn't come in lower than that. Also, it's looking like the northwestern row of counties in IN has a chance to come in with similar totals as much of Chicago metro, as that band of precip swings northeast later. What do you think? It's kind of looking like that. Probably a 2-5" event south to north across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 From what I can tell in the sheets of snow, the flake size doesn't seem terrible. Not great but I wouldn't call it pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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