wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Sciascia said: From the 3km NAM. This would be fun to see verify. I can’t see the time stamp, what time is this forecast for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z RGEM a bit south out west again, before curing NE. Goes from just west of DSM to UGN...roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: I can’t see the time stamp, what time is this forecast for? 9z Monday (3am, I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 that turn NE over northern Il is a different look than I'm used to seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Think we could easily get 10" in Madison, maybe even more than a foot with the way things are trending. Looks like the jackpot will be just north of the area. Snow will just be pouring down here between midnight and 6 am.When was the last time we saw double digits from a single event? Might have been GHD I, although I was living in Milwaukee for that one. Even during the vaunted 2013-14, that was more like a 6" or less event every few days without a real big thumper that stands out. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: When was the last time we saw double digits from a single event? Might have been GHD I, although I was living in Milwaukee for that one. Even during the vaunted 2013-14, that was more like a 6" or less event every few days without a real big thumper that stands out. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Dec 20, 2012. Madison got about 14". I think that's the most recent double digit snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 As far as why the northeast turn... you have the system in southeast Canada pulling away and our wave starts to take on a more neutral tilt. Maybe something else but that is what I saw at a glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: As far as why the northeast turn... you have the system in southeast Canada pulling away and our wave starts to take on a more neutral tilt. Maybe something else but that is what I saw at a glance. I believe it's exactly that. The Hudson PV lobe departs, as the new PV lode slides south out of Canada on the heels of this system, kicking it NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Feeling pretty good about warning criteria snows here. Think a 6-8” range is reasonable, and will make my call at 7.1” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 24 minutes ago, Sciascia said: 9z Monday (3am, I think). Thanks, timing of this event keeps getting pushed back it looks like. The start of the heavy snow around 2 or 3am, and many models show it pushing out by around rush hour, yet projections showing around a foot on a lot of models. Not sure I buy into that unless lake effect/enhancement adds to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 GRR is advertising 4-8" south of 96 in their AFD, yet my forecast (adjacent to the city of GR) is 8+, and we are well south of 96. Sh*t gets real when you include the lake effect totals by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’m gonna make a call of 2.9” in Iowa City. 4.1” in my backyard in Hiawatha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: As far as why the northeast turn... you have the system in southeast Canada pulling away and our wave starts to take on a more neutral tilt. Maybe something else but that is what I saw at a glance. You also have a high pressure between them. I would think that high would delay any NE turn? IDK though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 HRRR looking a lot like the NAM currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 S+ reported at Fargo ND with southeast winds gusting to 30 mph. Temp 1 F. Minot is 40 deg F with a west wind, low center appears to be crossing border now near southeast corner of SK. Looks to be dropping south faster than gaining east, until passing Watertown SD, then curves past MLI towards a point 50 miles south of RFD then east-north-east to JXN. If it can maintain this very tight temperature gradient into the heavy snow production zone, a raging blizzard will develop in northeast IA, southern MN into n IL and most of WI. I do see a weakening trend overall past Lake Michigan but still some potent lake enhanced totals in parts of southern MI. This curved track exposes Chicago to NNE winds for a time which may up your totals. Thinking about 8" RFD, 10" ORD, 15" MSN to MKE with 20" local maxima, trending to 12" GRB. Cold fronts have been active through Alberta and SK with reports of wind gusts to 55 mph in Alberta last night. It may maintain some of those dynamics although wind gusts near Rockies can be downslope pass drainage effects in some cases, but I saw some strong gusts as far east as Swift Current SK last night too, that's well away from any topography. This would apply to regions south of main snowfall band and track of low, but even there I feel that 1-2" quite possible in bursts of heavy snow. Warm advection will be weak once the chinook signature is extinguished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I will call 4.4” at ORD and 3.2” downtown. That would be my 2nd highest total of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 20z HRRR tracked pretty close to the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z GFS ticking south again as it heads into IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GFS ticking south again as it heads into IA. And ends up going right over DVN again. Seems to be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The GFS precip field seems to hold together much further east vs the recent NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Definitely slower than the NAM & HRRR. Exits further south in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Seeing this GFS makes me wonder if most of Michigan and maybe some more Illinois counties deserve warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18Z GFS is another better run for southern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z GFS is another better run for southern MI Doesn’t start the NE turn as early, giving you guys better snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Moosey2323 said: Seeing this GFS makes me wonder if most of Michigan and maybe some more Illinois counties deserve warnings... it's one model. big difference here is didn't head NE. And if it's slower that could help amounts i suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 What’s the best site for viewing Kuchera Method amounts? TT is only 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baum said: it's one model. big difference here is didn't head NE. And if it's slower that could help amounts i suspect. Agree. Low center is right over Chicago instead of Waukegan. Makes a huge difference. Verbatim, 18z GFS shows about 0.6” of liquid at ORD, and around 0.7” at the WI/IL border. Assuming 13:1 ratios, would imply 8-10” in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Baum said: it's one model. big difference here is didn't head NE. And if it's slower that could help amounts i suspect. Eh taking a better look, it’s not as slow as I had first thought. Main point is the lack of hard NE turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 La Crosse NWS mentioning possibility of thundersnow with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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