Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it looks that way. Hopefully the HRRR/RAP can keep trending upwards, but it's certainly looking like the 0.5" for CR/QC will be way too much. Still a nice 3-5" event though, if we can get LSRs over 13:1, which I think is possible. This. One step in the right direction is the models trending further away from the mid 30’s and more so into the upper 20’s to lower 30’s (depending on area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z NAM coming south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 IWX issues WSW for Berrien and Cass, ups totals in the other counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z NAM coming south again. Actually that is a sizable jump south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z NAM coming south again. This run actually puts the low track on the south end of the model range through Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Actually that is a sizable jump south this run. Quite a front end thump on that setup too. Low headed through SE IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice to see in the final 6-10hrs we're starting to narrow in on some sort of a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 New NAM is quite a bit south. Here we go again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 If the other models follow suit, I expect my driveway to be spoon-shoveled by 18z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Quite a front end thump on that setup too. Low headed through SE IA. Or not, over DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 P&C forecast (Elmwood Park, IL) has been updated from this morning & now lists 4-9 inches expected. Had previously been 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Or not, over DVN And then over RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 great run for SE WISC up to milwaukee as low heads NE from DVN to over Waukegan the ultimate pivot timing from a SE to NW movement is going to be huge!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, ILSNOW said: great run for SE WISC up to milwaukee as low heads NE from DVN to over Waukegan More a DVN to RFD to MKE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z NAM looks to dig south but then hits the turn signal over DVN and shoots NE. Looks like the low will end up north of GRR here this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah I am not seeing any substantial movement on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: More a DVN to RFD to MKE track. I was calling this Waukegan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 What a strange track on the NAM. I guess the Euro is doing this too, to some extent. The storm was modeled for the last 6 days to come down from the NNW and then head due E...and now, just before the event, we get a NE hook showing up on the models. Not saying this to complain...but this storm has been bizarre to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18Z NAM is much better for southern MI and extremely better for northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 new LOT map gets rockford and waukegan into the 8-12 range gets the 6-8 range into cook co but still north of downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z NAM is much better for southern MI and extremely better for northern IL Looks roughly the same for southern Michigan and half of a county further south in Northern Illinois from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: Looks roughly the same for southern Michigan and half of a county further south in Northern Illinois from what I can see. It is definitely better this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 New P&C forecast from IWX has me at 6 to 11 inches. WWA wording indicates 5 to 8 inches. Edit: Looking through forecasts around me IWX clearly thinking lake-enhancement/lake-effect will up totals closer to LM. Can't say I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 portion of LOT update Overall, there is some very impressive ingredients coming together to support a 6 to 8 hour period of heavy snow across portions of the area tonight. First and foremost, very strong isentropic upglide is expected across the area overnight as around 50 kt southwesterly winds develop orthogonal to the isobaric surfaces. This will be complimented by some quiet impressive moisture, which is noted by mixing ratios around 3.0 g/kg on the 280-290 theta surfaces. It appears that periods of heavy snow overnight will produce periods of 1 to perhaps 1.5 inches per hour, especially over far northern IL. This timeframe looks to be roughly from around midnight through 6 am Monday morning, when all of the dynamics with this system will be coming together. This includes what appears to be a strong band of 850-700 mb frontogenesis setting up across southern WI and into far northern IL during the overnight hours. Given that this will coincide with the timing of the best larger scale forcing for ascent from the parent mid- level impulse periods of heavy snow will be likely. Blowing snow is also expected overnight as south winds increase and becoming gusty. This will likely add to reduced visibilities in the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 ^ yeah nice write up. Basically sticking with a high end advisory by me. Seems fair, and new NAM supports this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Think we could easily get 10" in Madison, maybe even more than a foot with the way things are trending. Looks like the jackpot will be just north of the area. Snow will just be pouring down here between midnight and 6 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 agree 100% appears all think that the 12Z gfs was overdone. to me important thing to take away is that all models have taken the low further south in Iowa but where this thing pivots NE is going to be huge!!! Chicago storm or other PROS what causes the sudden NE movement and do you buy it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 DTX sticking with the current warnings and advisories per AFD. Quote All said, no plans with the afternoon forecast package to adjust the ongoing winter weather headlines. The combination of the stronger forcing and longer residence time positioned to the north maintains higher confidence for a warning level snowfall accumulation (>7") to focus along/north of the I-69 corridor. Recent probability guidance trending toward a slightly more contracted event for areas to the south, indicating the core of this event landing in that 5-7 hour window /centered between 9 am and 3 pm/ before the mid level dry slot arrives mid-late afternoon. While a period of higher intensity snowfall likely emerges, the smaller duration window still points to solid advisory level totals versus warning criteria. A gusty southeast wind to 25 mph for areas south of the low track will contribute a component of blowing snow through the day. Loss of ice nucleation as the emerging dry slot impinges on the region may bring a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle late Monday into Monday evening prior to the inbound cold frontal passage. The advective process may in fact nudge late afternoon temperatures above freezing for a time as far north as metro Detroit. Cold front set to surge through overnight, setting the stage for a long duration and impressive downturn in temperatures and corresponding wind chill for the week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Somewhere in central WI is going to cash in big time with the pivot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 From the 3km NAM. This would be fun to see verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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