RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 lol at the people who bailed two days ago. This winter this is what it’s been. Down to the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Think LOT will have to extend warnings south a tier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The RAP and HRRR don't even have data coverage in much of Canada, so yeah, would not be too concerned about them yet. System is getting closer to the US and they should keep correcting. Oh wow, that's interesting. Learn something new everyday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Seems like a number of us are in the same boat... how much precip on the southern end and how fast do temps warm above freezing? The 12z runs were not discouraging, and I'm starting to entertain the possibility of 5-6" even here if the rise above freezing can be delayed by just 2-3 hours... not entirely sold yet though. The thing about this is that past experience is not too helpful. Normally you are screwed south of a clipper track but this isn't a typical setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The RAP and HRRR don't even have data coverage in much of Canada, so yeah, would not be too concerned about them yet. System is getting closer to the US and they should keep correcting. Also the last few systems they’ve played catch up big time leading up to an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Oh wow, that's interesting. Learn something new everyday lol. The RAP has more I believe, but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Think LOT will have to extend warnings south a tier? I would guess they will wait for the euro, but if it follows the trend, then you can probably fairly confidently add another row of counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I would guess they will wait for the euro, but if it follows continues setting the trend, then you can probably fairly confidently add another row of counties Fixed that for you ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Anecdotally our boy RC and Skilling were seemingly reluctant to rely on models for this one. Skilling especially always had this one tracking south. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 TWC now calling for 6-11 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, King James said: Anecdotally our boy RC and Skilling were seemingly reluctant to rely on models for this one. Skilling especially always had this one tracking south. We will see. And that why they are the last true "forecasters" left. Seems as if everyone just hinge on the latest model runs these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: TWC now calling for 6-11 here Interesting. Usually not a fan of there tactics but definitely a sign of a trend south. You think that's a little excessive? I was thinking more like 5-6" between Toledo and Hillsdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: And that why they are the last true "forecasters" left. Seems as if everyone just hinge on the latest model runs these days am I missing something. I see there has been a slight shift south by the GFS. But it's not like this is tracking over Moline and than over Terre Haute. Majority of models still favor a track north of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 UK appears to be about the same as last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 12Z GFS precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 10 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Well then 4-8" it is. La la lock it in. If the RGEM is right, things are looking good for us. We must have got close to 4" in my neighbourhood this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, Baum said: am I missing something. I see there has been a slight shift south by the GFS. But it's not like this is tracking over Moline and than over Terre Haute. Majority of models still favor a track north of Chicago. A few days ago when the track was through central Wisconsin, Skilling put out a map that was 100 miles south of that and stuck to it. He went against the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Ok but how does the storm's current location match up to what models were forecasting the last few runs? @Hoosier like you pointed out yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Malacka11 said: Ok but how does the storm's current location match up to what models were forecasting the last few runs? Fairly close. GFS came a bit further south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: A few days ago when the track was through central Wisconsin, Skilling put out a map that was 100 miles south of that and stuck to it. He went against the models Maybe it's tracking fatigue but outside of a rogue run or two, I don't remember the surface low track being shown that far north. Consensus on southern WI/northern IL has been pretty solid for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: A few days ago when the track was through central Wisconsin, Skilling put out a map that was 100 miles south of that and stuck to it. He went against the models Yes. I commented on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Maybe it's tracking fatigue but outside of a rogue run or two, I don't remember the surface low track being shown that far north. Consensus on southern WI/northern IL has been pretty solid for a while. I agree however the models are taking the low farther south in Iowa before hooking and existing IL near Waukegan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said: GRR should already have warnings up in its southern most counties but GRR apparently is using different warning criteria than the rest of the country these days. Thank you! Extremely frustrating office, especially for one who lives along their SE most counties where we've been hit twice by 6-10" storms and no watch issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 looks like 997 over Quad cities at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Euro actually a bit further north of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: Euro actually a bit further north of 00z definition of "a bit"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Euro and GFS basically same spot over IL, might finally have reached consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: definition of "a bit"? I’d say 50 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Reviewing 12z data including short range ensembles and SREF plumes... really thinking it’s going to be tough to get more than 2-5” out of this for areas east of and south of I-69 due to the dry slot unless this pulls a fast one and is further south. However... this isn’t your average storm. And I should also add that there is absolutely no consensus on the SREF plumes - literally shows anything from 0.5” to 12.5” with no tightening to show a slight agreement. NWS’s have their work cut out for them again on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nudged ever so slightly south.. 8-12 has made its way south compared to 36 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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