Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Sort of looks like it's in between the 12z and 18z runs.Approximately. Solid run for many.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 To me the track should keep going se along the baroclinic zone. It's like right before it gets into IL it turns east. It's weird. It taking that more easterly turn always the "warmer" air south to creep more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 It does look like there's going to be a zone that gets thumped with heavy snow, changes to rain for a while, and then changes back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Curious how the thermals play out with this one. 00z NAM/GFS get anywhere from mid 30s to low 40s up as far north as the I-80/I-90 corridor in IN/OH. Not getting too out of shape about it just yet at 96 hours, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: It does look like there's going to be a zone that gets thumped with heavy snow, changes to rain for a while, and then changes back to snow. Yea I noticed that. I get a front end thump on gfs and then rain and then back to snow Just now, geddyweather said: Curious how the thermals play out with this one. 00z NAM/GFS get anywhere from mid 30s to low 40s up as far north as the I-80/I-90 corridor in IN/OH. Not getting too out of shape about it just yet at 96 hours, but something to watch. I think thermals may be overdone given where this system is originating and the fact there isn't a lot of warm air near it to pull north. But it does have a robust llj so that could do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: To me the track should keep going se along the baroclinic zone. It's like right before it gets into IL it turns east. It's weird. It taking that more easterly turn always the "warmer" air south to creep more north The idea of an east turn seems reasonable to me. The gyre in southeast Canada starts to lift out, which gives an opening. Where the east turn happens could change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: The idea of an east turn seems reasonable to me. The gyre in southeast Canada starts to lift out, which gives an opening. Where the east turn happens could change of course. True. Didn't think of that. Wpc has it turn east further south on their map. Closer to I72 versus I80 on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I continue to like northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin for a widespread 6”+ event. Somewhere between the GFS and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: True. Didn't think of that. Wpc has it turn east further south on their map. Closer to I72 versus I80 on gfs Map link? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 GEM a tick North from its 12z run. Hoping to avoid rain here before the arctic hammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Even where it does go above freezing and change to rain for a while, there is a good chance of having the cold surface issue again with icing on cleaned and untreated pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 This was actually just updated at 1028pm. But they're still keeping theirs closer to what Euro showed. If it moved due east from that position it will definitely be south of where gfs/nam track it east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Hard to tell with the UKMET but track looks Euro-esque. SLP sitting over Terre Haute, IN at hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 From what I heard the UKMET has a terrible track record. It did awful with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: From what I heard the UKMET has a terrible track record. It did awful with the last storm Incorrect. Both the UKMET and the NAM won last system earlier this week...The only two that had the further south track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, mimillman said: Hard to tell with the UKMET but track looks Euro-esque. SLP sitting over Terre Haute, IN at hour 96 SLP is near Watseka/Rensselaer at that time. It's definitly one of the further south tracks on 0z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Incorrect. Both the UKMET and the NAM won last system earlier this week...The only two that had the further south track. Well my bad. Guess I didn't pay enough attention to that. You think we will see a south trend with this as we get closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 0z ECMWF is coming in north, stronger and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z ECMWF is coming in north, stronger and wetter. 12-18" IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12-18" IL/WI border. Normally being in the bullseye this far off is a sure bet for disappointment but there doesn’t seem like there really is a huge spread/range for this thing to move. A storm like this followed by such cold would be a huge 3 day weather event wherever it does occur. How wide is the significant snow band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Nice to see the Euro trend back to a more significant system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Nice to see the Euro trend back to a more significant system. I'd like it to ideally come back a bit south. Getting a wee bit north for my liking, but I won't complain. Still a 6" system in IC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well my bad. Guess I didn't pay enough attention to that. You think we will see a south trend with this as we get closer? We seem to be seeing agreement on an SLP track somewhere around I-80. While sampling won't be until 0z Saturday evening runs, tomorrow might be the last shot to keep you in the game given trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 21 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: Normally being in the bullseye this far off is a sure bet for disappointment but there doesn’t seem like there really is a huge spread/range for this thing to move. A storm like this followed by such cold would be a huge 3 day weather event wherever it does occur. How wide is the significant snow band? On the ECMWF the 12"+ axis is the two northern tiers of counties in N. IL and the two southern tier in S. WI...So fairly wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, hlcater said: I'd like it to ideally come back a bit south. Getting a wee bit north for my liking, but I won't complain. Still a 6" system in IC. Yeah it'd be great to see the track from the 12z Euro verify. A combo of the 12z Euro track and the strength of the new 00z would be perfect for both our areas. Gonna be another fun period of model tracking over the next 48hrs. I'm not even gonna bother to guess what we'll get with this storm since my forecasts have sucked ass the past few events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 This is a very odd system imo. Not often do you get these strong of ones with the temps. -2F - 5F means ratios could be 40:1. Euro spitting out .6'' would mean 24'' which is a lot of course. I'm curious what the official forecast will call for in then next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Skilling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Would like to see a shift back south at 12z. The trend north in guidance is a bit unnerving. Optimistic though given what we saw with the previous two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, mimillman said: Would like to see a shift back south at 12z. The trend north in guidance is a bit unnerving. Optimistic though given what we saw with the previous two systems. A lot of people were thinking this was going South but all the last models have been wagons North. Still looks good here but I too would not mind a nudge South. 6z GEFS is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: A lot of people were thinking this was going South but all the last models have been wagons North. Still looks good here but I too would not mind a nudge South. 6z GEFS is perfect. Yeah, GEFS is a good deal south of the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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