michaelmantis Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Shame this is going to be an overnight event, should see some excellent rates with things really rocking and rolling for a good portion of the night. Timing seems awful for commute/school start. Only saving grace is it will be overnight while many cars off road but with heavy rates and blowing not sure that will make any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS coming south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS coming south a bit Quite a bit.. looks like a decent hit for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS following the trend, and coming south as well. . We talking shoveling a driveway with a spoon south? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Quite a bit.. looks like a decent hit for Chicago. Uh yeah. It’s around Cedar Rapids at 21. This should be a smoke job for N il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I still don't buy the turn NE between hours 30 and 36. Think it continues to slide south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: I still don't buy the turn NE between hours 30 and 36. Think it continues to slide south? If it is strengthening at that point I could see a bit of a left turn, but otherwise probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 DVN to UGN path across IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: I still don't buy the turn NE between hours 30 and 36. Think it continues to slide south? I was just going to say, looks like models are starting to take it further south but then hook the low northeast around this time frame. Something to watch. Either way, good trends late in the game. Milwaukee looks to get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Uh yeah. It’s around Cedar Rapids at 21. This should be a smoke job for N il Seems to still turn NE over us. Not sure I agree with that type of turn. Seems a more due east or even SE is more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Quite the challenge along the southern edge based on the latest guidance. The GFS and RGEM have 0.4-0.5" of precip for the QCA, while the HRRR/RAP/3km NAM have considerably less precip. You would think leaning on those higher-res models would be the way to go at this point, but the shift south with the heavier precip on the other models is noteworthy. From a forecast standpoint the best bet is to just go with a wide range of totals, which is a bit frustrating lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 12z GGEM south too.Muscatine, IA to IN/MI/OH border corners. Roughly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 WAGONS SOUTH! @cyclone77 pulling this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Quite the challenge along the southern edge based on the latest guidance. The GFS and RGEM have 0.4-0.5" of precip for the QCA, while the HRRR/RAP/3km NAM have considerably less precip. You would think leaning on those higher-res models would be the way to go at this point, but the shift south with the heavier precip on the other models is noteworthy. From a forecast standpoint the best bet is to just go with a wide range of totals, which is a bit frustrating lol. Congrats on reeling in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: WAGONS SOUTH! @cyclone77 pulling this one in. I thought you gave up on this one a while ago? :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Do you think the warnings will be expanded south in Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: Do you think the warnings will be expanded south in Michigan? GRR should already have warnings up in its southern most counties but GRR apparently is using different warning criteria than the rest of the country these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, mimillman said: I was just going to say, looks like models are starting to take it further south but then hook the low northeast around this time frame. Something to watch. Either way, good trends late in the game. Milwaukee looks to get slammed I actually think the whole axis of heavy snow may pivot a bit more NW to SE instead of W/E. This may limit the overall snow totals north slightly, but increase totals over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Quite the challenge along the southern edge based on the latest guidance. The GFS and RGEM have 0.4-0.5" of precip for the QCA, while the HRRR/RAP/3km NAM have considerably less precip. You would think leaning on those higher-res models would be the way to go at this point, but the shift south with the heavier precip on the other models is noteworthy. From a forecast standpoint the best bet is to just go with a wide range of totals, which is a bit frustrating lol. Can I borrow whatever black magic stuff you got going on there? To be honest I would expect continuing trends up through the event start time, similar to the last couple events. You seem like you could probably pull a 4" event out of a 1040mb high this winter so I like your odds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I actually think the whole axis of heavy snow may pivot a bit more NW to SE instead of W/E. This may limit the overall snow totals north slightly, but increase totals over Chicago. Are there any models that move the low south of due east once it gets to Eastern Iowa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, wisconsinwx said: Are there any models that move the low south of due east once it gets to Eastern Iowa? Thus far, what I have seen is the low is moving slightly NE as it crosses IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Canadian GDPS coming in South, Chicago hit pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: WAGONS SOUTH! @cyclone77 pulling this one in. 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Congrats on reeling in... . Was there ever any doubt? The guy is magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 31 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: Are there any models that move the low south of due east once it gets to Eastern Iowa? Not that I'm aware of. Just me going against millions of dollars worth of technology I guess the GEM kinda does this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 24 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Quite the challenge along the southern edge based on the latest guidance. The GFS and RGEM have 0.4-0.5" of precip for the QCA, while the HRRR/RAP/3km NAM have considerably less precip. You would think leaning on those higher-res models would be the way to go at this point, but the shift south with the heavier precip on the other models is noteworthy. From a forecast standpoint the best bet is to just go with a wide range of totals, which is a bit frustrating lol. I would love to see the 0.50" GFS/GEM veryify. However, the meso models show this being only a 6-hr event here before the dry slot shoots in from the west. It would have to snow hard for the entire event to pile up the totals being spit out by the GFS/GEM. I think 0.20-0.30" is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The HRRR continues to be much less of a deal for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. It still has the low much farther north and only has a 4-hr band of snow moving through here... 0.20" vs 0.50" (hrrr/gfs). Heck, the HRRR only drops 0.10" on Iowa City, almost a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR continues to be much less of a deal for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. It still has the low much farther north and only has a 4-hr band of snow moving through here... 0.20" vs 0.50" (hrrr/gfs). I wouldn't worry about the RAP or HRRR, as they're severely lagging. Each run they have been making a decent correction west/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR continues to be much less of a deal for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. It still has the low much farther north and only has a 4-hr band of snow moving through here... 0.20" vs 0.50" (hrrr/gfs). Heck, the HRRR only drops 0.10" on Iowa City, almost a non-event. It's definitely a red flag. Interesting to see many models trending quite quickly in the wetter/south direction while the HRRR/RAP are very stingy. The RAP/HRRR struggled with the last few events beyond the 12hr mark. We'll have to keep watching to see if it has to play catch-up, or if it is on to something. It's gonna have to start trending wetter/south before too much longer or I'm afraid it may actually be on the right track with this. I'll stick with my 3-5" for this area for now. Last night's Euro showed fairly similar amounts along the southern edge, so will be interested to see the new 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I wouldn't worry about the RAP or HRRR, as they're severely lagging. Each run they have been making a decent correction west/south. The RAP and HRRR don't even have data coverage in much of Canada, so yeah, would not be too concerned about them yet. System is getting closer to the US and they should keep correcting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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