Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z hrrr seems pretty warm compared to most guidance which is around 33-34. That has temps nearing 40 which I think is unlikely this north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z hrrr seems pretty warm compared to most guidance which is around 33-34. That has temps nearing 40 which I think is unlikely this north Don't underestimate the strong WAA again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z hrrr seems pretty warm compared to most guidance which is around 33-34. That has temps nearing 40 which I think is unlikely this north I'll be honest....I'd love to get some liquid precip ahead of the wind and arctic air to lock down this pixie dust. I don't want to be snow blowing when it's -20 with 20MPH wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Don't underestimate the strong WAA again... Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Don't underestimate the strong WAA again... Exactly. I'd bet money it is more realistic with warm sector temps than the coldest models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Don't underestimate the strong WAA again... I'm not? Hrrr was running hot last time. Ended up hitting like 35 max but overall was around 33-34 all day. WAA with that last system was deep. Doesn't seem as deep with this system imo and doesn't get as north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z GFS coming in a bit south early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS coming in a bit south early on. Ends up running just north of the IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 MKE in the sweet spot on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z GGEM a bit south...DVN to Battle Creek this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS was much better for lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I would question the rainfall depiction on that HRRR even if the track verified, it would likely be mostly snow and just very small amounts of rain. But I also don't think the track will verify that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, DaveNay said: I'll be honest....I'd love to get some liquid precip ahead of the wind and arctic air to lock down this pixie dust. I don't want to be snow blowing when it's -20 with 20MPH wind. Was kind of thinking the same. The past two clippers layed down quite a bit of fluff on top of an already blow-able snow. If we can get a brief period of rain/freezing rain it would make the 3rd layer of ice within the snow pack lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I would question the rainfall depiction on that HRRR even if the track verified, it would likely be mostly snow and just very small amounts of rain. But I also don't think the track will verify that far north. Thanks for the insight..How far south are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Was kind of thinking the same. The past two clippers layed down quite a bit of fluff on top of an already blow-able snow. If we can get a brief period of rain/freezing rain it would make the 3rd layer of ice within the snow pack lol. Must be nice to discuss options on your Ferrari instead of just being happy you have one lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I would question the rainfall depiction on that HRRR even if the track verified, it would likely be mostly snow and just very small amounts of rain. But I also don't think the track will verify that far north. Even if it is mostly snow, temps warming above freezing would slow accumulation rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The Canadian come a bit south with the heavier snow! Maybe since the storm is coming from Canada, it's the go to model?? I like the OOZ trends this evening in the Michiana area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Must be nice to discuss options on your Ferrari instead of just being happy you have one lmao Gucci interior or Vuitton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Frog Town said: The Canadian come a bit south with the heavier snow! Maybe since the storm is coming from Canada, it's the go to model?? I like the OOZ trends this evening in the Michiana area. Have actually seen people say that the Canadian does better on systems coming from Canada. Sounds like one of those things that should be a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, DaveNay said: Gucci interior or Vuitton? I'm drivin' a 73 Vega down here, 100% plastic vinyl, ask him lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice gradient from IL to north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z UKMET a bit south, looks to track from DVN to ORD...or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 I like where I sit. And probably have got 3 inches or so in the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 With the system now on land and if you want more southern shifts, you have to hope that the behavior starts to depart a little bit from the model progs at 6 hrs, 12 hrs, etc. and that the models play "catch up." One of the things I will be watching is where it enters the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: With the system now on land and if you want more southern shifts, you have to hope that the behavior starts to depart a little bit from the model progs at 6 hrs, 12 hrs, etc. and that the models play "catch up." One of the things I will be watching is where it enters the US. Pretty good consensus along the state line which is rare at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 UKMET precip (some of this from Lake Michigan eastward is from tonight's system) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I'm gonna go with 3-5" for this area. I know I said I wasn't going to make a forecast after my past few performances but I can't help it lol. Good chance I'm wrong again, but it's all in fun eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z ECMWF coming in similar to previous runs, with a track near I-88 in IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 0z ECMWF coming in similar to previous runs, with a track near I-88 in IL. . Milwaukee bullseye again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z ECMWF coming in similar to previous runs, with a track near I-88 in IL. . Still in that southern envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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