UMB WX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Can always count on Roger to boost moral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: There’s probably going be be 2-3 days for sure next week that most schools are cancelled. . They would have cancelled school for this when I was going, let alone nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 NWS Gaylord Michigan issues watch for 9-12 inches, blowing snow in 30mph gusting winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 18z RGEM close to ORD at 48hr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z RGEM close to ORD at 48hr. . Hmmm. Relatively speaking, not bad with how things have been trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, fluoronium said: I remember a storm in 2003 where there were severe thunderstorm warnings issued in central IL for a line of thunderstorms/heavy snow associated with a strong cold front. Is there any possibility of that kind of event with a setup like this for those south of the low? This storm system looks to take a similar path to the 2003 storm, and the forecast models are picking up on a line of precip associated with the cold front. I would love to see something like that again. We had a short burst of whiteout conditions with tons of lightning, and the wind blew the snow in my yard into snow rollers. Some info on the 2003 storm can be found here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008WAF2007103.1 I noticed 3km nam is showing something similar to this. Strong band of snow with the cf. Could be intense with strong winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Have to hand it to GRR... at least they issued a WSW for a third of the CWA lol. Just don’t get their thinking. 12z Euro continued to be a share the wealth for many. Will be interesting to see how long it holds out with the southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 LOT update While Sunday will remain cold, with daytime highs in the teens, temperatures should be on a warming trend Sunday night as southern winds become gusty in advance of our next clipper system. Unfortunately this warming will come at the cost of more moisture and the development of snow over the area. This fast moving and potent clipper system will be tracking somewhere right across far northern IL around the WI stateline on Monday morning. It looks to be ahead of the main surface low that northern IL and portions of northwestern IN could see a period of heavy snow. Timing wise this would be roughly be from mid-late Sunday evening through mid- morning Monday. During this period strong isentropic upglide will set up across the area as 35 to 50 kt winds develop on the 280 through 290 surfaces are run directly perpendicular to the isobars. This, in addition with increasing large scale forcing for ascent from the approaching mid-level impulse, should result in good ascent supportive of snow development over the area. It also appears that some periods of quiet heavy snow will also be likely, especially across far northern IL Sunday night, this as mid-level lapse rates look to steepen considerably (700-500 mb lapse rates of 6.5C+ per KM) in response to the strong lower-level warm air advection. With all this in mind, in spite of the track of the low, we could still end up with amounts exceeding 6+ inches over far northern IL, with likely lesser amounts south of the watch. Again a majority of this would fall overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. During the morning Monday, a mid-level dry slot looks to shift in over the area. Once this occurs, we will likely see the precipitation eighter end, or switch over to some drizzle/freezing drizzle. Surface temperatures may briefly warm to, or just above freezing Monday morning, but this will be short lived as cold air spills back across the area Monday afternoon. There could be some lingering light snow Monday afternoon, but any additional accumulations look to remain under an inch. At this time we plan on holding with the winter storm watch for the northern tier of counties. This may need to be upgraded to a warning tonight. South of the watch, it appears snowfall amounts will generally be in the 3 to 6 inch range down to around the I-80 corridor, A winter weather advisory may be needed south of the current watch down towards the I-80 corridor. These areas could need a winter weather advisory in the future. South of I-80 it appears that snow amounts will fall off into the 1 to 3 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Anyone got eyes on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 18z GFS very similar to 12z at 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sciascia said: 18z GFS very similar to 12z at 36hrs. Bump south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 GFS begins to bring the low through the IL/WI border at 42. Slightly south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sciascia said: GFS begins to bring the low through the IL/WI border at 42. Slightly south of 12z. Not sure a buy that shift between 42 and 48. Seems to pivot on a dime..it may keep sliding south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Warnings issued for Green, Dane counties in Wisconsin for 5-10 inches of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, Sciascia said: GFS begins to bring the low through the IL/WI border at 42. Slightly south of 12z. A touch south, baby stepping to get 88 north and the northern burbs to warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 NWS Detroit AFD regarding forecasting problems. Not looking good for lower Michigan with that possible dry slot. Quote There are a couple of major issues that need further attention. The first is the potential for a midlevel dry slot to lift into Southeast Michigan during the afternoon hours and wreak havoc to the rates. Additionally, the orientation of the dry slot could be sufficient to impact the amount of snowfall for the entire west half of the cwa, including the far north. The second item that is still causing some heartburn is what will snow ratios be. First cut guidance has been seemingly on the high side and questions from this forecaster remain. Forecast soundings suggest what will be a narrow zone intersecting the DGZ high up in the column, upwards of 10 kft agl. While on the high side, it does match up well to bulk of ascent that will be occuring up the frontal slope. Thus some mixed signal for what snow ratios will be. Did use a compromise and generally went with 14:1 for much of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I finally get a Winter Storm Warning this season. Looking like 6-10'' of snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Minnesota_storms said: I finally get a Winter Storm Warning this season. Looking like 6-10'' of snow for me. congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 That squally looking line of precip along the strong cold front Monday looks pretty interesting on the 3km NAM. Will be interesting to see if future runs continue to show that feature. Curious to see if the HRRR shows it as well when it gets into range. Would coincide with a pretty quick temp crash with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 With the Detroit AFD, my point and click in Royal Oak, MI is down to 4". Whomp whomp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I'm liking the front end thump potential, even this far south. Obviously won't be as heavy as further north, but a decent period of snow with 2+" is quite likely. With over 14" on the ground I can live with that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: That squally looking line of precip along the strong cold front Monday looks pretty interesting on the 3km NAM. Will be interesting to see if future runs continue to show that feature. Curious to see if the HRRR shows it as well when it gets into range. Would coincide with a pretty quick temp crash with the front. Yea the lower res models aren't showing it well but it looks potent on 3km nam. Very sharp intense line. Probably could produce brief blizzard conditions. That would be a nice consolation prize for us further south who largely miss out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, n1vek said: With the Detroit AFD, my point and click in Royal Oak, MI is down to 4". Whomp whomp. Mine went from 6 to 5 in Columbiaville. I'll take it. Dogs will love plowing through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: With a track north of us, we'll be lucky to get half that. The northern models are quickly diving the PV southward and phasing, causing the slp to curl northward. EURO/UKIE are slower with that feature, and thus more favourable to us (although they've been inching north too). I'd say 3-4" for us right now, and hope to god it doesn't trend any further north. Doug Gillham of the The Weather Network tweeted 3 hours ago that he expects 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 It looks like Toronto might get 1-2" overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea the lower res models aren't showing it well but it looks potent on 3km nam. Very sharp intense line. Probably could produce brief blizzard conditions. That would be a nice consolation prize for us further south who largely miss out If that comes to fruition I woukd think that would qualify for the new Snow Squall Warnings. Although last I heard, NWS, at least locally, may not have the product ready until next month. I guess we’ll find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 That band of precip to the SE of the sfc low isn't along the cold front, it's along something else. Temps at the surface actually warm into the mid 30s behind it with upper 20s ahead of it. I think that feature being something particularly noteworthy is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z ECMWF similar to 12z run, with a track between I-88 and the IL/WI border.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, hlcater said: That band of precip to the SE of the sfc low isn't along the cold front, it's along something else. Temps at the surface actually warm into the mid 30s behind it with upper 20s ahead of it. I think that feature being something particularly noteworthy is unlikely. The one I was mentioning is a second, narrower band of convective looking precip. This was along the strong cold front/wind shift. 3km NAM btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: The one I was mentioning is a second, narrower band of convective looking precip. This was along the strong cold front/wind shift. 3km NAM btw. Oh I see it now, I was using 1km Ptype and it didn't show up. Shows up on composite reflectivity though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.