Malacka11 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Consensus until it all changes. My hopes exactly. 00z tonight will be a nuke going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Lame - but good for MSP. Forum is boring when its not a share the wealth. I really thought you guys still had the keys to the SE trend. That Batteries dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, mimillman said: Can’t believe the GFS scored this coup We haven't seen the final outcome yet, but even if it turns out like this, it's a reminder that always riding the Euro 100% is usually not as effective as some sort of blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: My hopes exactly. 00z tonight will be a nuke going off. Major changes occurred 12 hours before onset of the last system, nothing is set in stone just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: Major changes occurred 12 hours before onset of the last system, nothing is set in stone just yet Don’t exactly need a “major” change to bring 88 north back into the game. That being said, not holding my breath for much more than an advisory nusciance event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Don’t exactly need a “major” change to bring 88 north back into the game. That being said, not holding my breath for much more than an advisory nusciance event here. I'm just hoping. It just doesn't seem that a storm would plow into the cold part of a baroclinic zone. You said it best, not really holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Don’t exactly need a “major” change to bring 88 north back into the game. That being said, not holding my breath for much more than an advisory nusciance event here. Really? I think you are in decent for 4-6 wouldn't be surprised if when they issue the wwa they will include you in the warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I won’t be fully sold on a the current northern consensus that nails MSP until the nowcast and radar trend time. Been burned by last minutes shifts too often this winter. Right now feel good about a solid 4-6” to help usher in the polar blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Really? I think you are in decent for 4-6 wouldn't be surprised if when they issue the wwa they will include you in the warning Yup. I think many of the Chicago folks are only interested in 10" or greater events these days. Perhaps they should remember December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Baum said: Yup. I think many of the Chicago folks are only interested in 10" or greater events these days. Perhaps they should remember December... Big dogs or bring on golfing weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, Baum said: Yup. I think many of the Chicago folks are only interested in 10" or greater events these days. Perhaps they should remember December THEIR CLIMO... FYP lol. Boy it took only a few good weeks to get the Chicago crowd cocky . My brother moved back in Fall (he doesnt like snow) and since he moved to Chicago 5 years prior, we almost always had more snow than him. He joked that maybe he will bring his luck of less snow home with him. Sure enough, to date ORD is at 24.5" and DTW 13.7". In the previous 8 winters, Detroit beat Chicago 7 of 8 times, and the only time they didnt was by 3". I mean, winter is only half over but if it does happen this year and again next year, Im telling him he must move back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: The UK is still pretty robust with the front-end thump over eastern Iowa. I’ve come to learn I purchased the wrong kind of car for Iowa. Low profile tires and rear wheel drive. I have to drive to work Sunday evening and this shows enough snow to even cause trouble for me in DSM. And, I could easily see this system shifting south last minute. I love a good snowstorm but we already have a 7 inch snowpack and it’s not melting. I just don’t want to get stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, Baum said: Yup. I think many of the Chicago folks are only interested in 10" or greater events these days. Perhaps they should remember December... I haven’t seen a double digit event since 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: I haven’t seen a double digit event since 2015 That is not far outside the bounds of long term Chicago double digit snowstorm climo. I think it's like once every few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 That is not far outside the bounds of long term Chicago double digit snowstorm climo. I think it's like once every few years.Indeed.However, the west and northwest burbs have better climo for that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That is not far outside the bounds of long term Chicago double digit snowstorm climo. I think it's like once every few years. Yea I guess so. Perhaps moving from the east coast wasn’t the best idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 RAP, which can probably be adjusted southward if it's playing to its tendency Will be a nice burst of mod/hvy snow along and even south of track. Just keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I remember a storm in 2003 where there were severe thunderstorm warnings issued in central IL for a line of thunderstorms/heavy snow associated with a strong cold front. Is there any possibility of that kind of event with a setup like this for those south of the low? This storm system looks to take a similar path to the 2003 storm, and the forecast models are picking up on a line of precip associated with the cold front. I would love to see something like that again. We had a short burst of whiteout conditions with tons of lightning, and the wind blew the snow in my yard into snow rollers. Some info on the 2003 storm can be found here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008WAF2007103.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 18z NAM is going to bump back north again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z NAM is going to bump back north again. . Maybe slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I like about 2-3" here at this point. The warm sector warmup has me a bit concerned and thinking that the colder models may not quite be accounting for it enough. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 NWS Grand Rapids issues small watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3rd headline event in a week where it snows when one should be sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Maybe slightly. pretty good consensus on track at this point. State line or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Solid 4-6” thump on the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Solid 4-6” thump on the 3km NAM. still think there are surprises left with this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Solid 4-6” thump on the 3km NAM. That works for me... Probaby not enough around here to cancel school Monday. Wednesday (read the latest LOT AFD) May be another story with *temps* at -20 in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 That works for me... Probaby not enough around here to cancel school Monday. Wednesday (read the latest LOT AFD) May be another story with *temps* at -20 in the morning...There’s probably going be be 2-3 days for sure next week that most schools are cancelled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Milder Pacific air is not making any sort of robust push away from the chinook zone, so the most logical track for this developing low (currently near BC-Yukon border at 1007 mb) would be across s.w. SK into w ND, n.e. SD, then something like Dubuque to Joliet to Jackson MI into sw ON. I think it's more likely to track south of Chicago than north anyway. Intense lake enhancement in E-SE winds for much of Wisconsin, perhaps a burst of NE winds before backing to NW. Would hold with earlier idea of 5-10" snow along and north of track, but 10-20" locally in WI and eastern lower MI from lake enhancement. Temp gradient will remain very tight as the warm advection will increase after the low passes ND, would guess 24 F for max at ORD and about 17 F for MKE (would be a lot lower but surface flow will pick up warmth from Lake Michigan). Temps will stay 10-15 or lower throughout snowfall away from warming off-lake, winds may gust over 45 mph in the E-SE flow, so very likely blizzard conditions in parts of southern and eastern WI, and perhaps around Alpena to Bay City MI also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Because of all the Debbie downers in this thread, this will be an over performer for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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