Cary67 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: They have been sticking to the southern solution the whole time. This has a WWA feel to it. Unless models shift south some today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 6z ECMWF held with a track across far N. Illinois.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 6z ECMWF held with a track across far N. Illinois. . can you share snow amounts for IL northern counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: This has a WWA feel to it. Unless models shift south some today. If the forecast holds in a 3-7" range forecast given cold and wind it'll be a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Baum said: If the forecast holds in a 3-7" range forecast given cold and wind it'll be a warning. Unfortunately, it won't be that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Unfortunately, it won't be that cold yes it will my local forecast for sunday and sunday night Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 12. Wind chill values as low as -14. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after midnight. Low around 11. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 can you share snow amounts for IL northern counties?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: . Thanks to bad it is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Let's see what this little tiny disturbance does ahead of it.today...walk the dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z NAM coming back north. Will track across S. Wisconsin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 10 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Whatever the track, this low will be interacting with two very cold air masses ahead and following it in. It may not have a very well-defined warm sector at all, and could become one of those circular blizzards of days past. There was a storm like this on Jan 30-31, 1971 if you want to see an analogue. Snowfalls of 4-8" along the track and 10-15" lake enhanced could be expected. Green Bay might get 15-30 inches of snow out of this as a lake effect dynamic persists ahead of the low and behind it. The u.p. of Michigan will have life-threatening blizzard conditions with -15 air temps and -40 wind chills with S+ from still-unfrozen Lake Superior (we'll see how long that lasts next week). Would say 6-9" most likely for Chicago, 9-15" Milwaukee, 5-10" range in s MI and sw ON to 20" locally in lake effect squalls. Was commenting in the temp thread that the following air mass is record cold already up in the central arctic, -56 F at Shepherd Bay, NU. Roger, what are you thinking for Toronto? 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The precip band though on 12z nam arcs more se it seems. Seems to keep the rain at bay to. Mixed precip to snow on the cf here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 38 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: yes it will my local forecast for sunday and sunday night Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 12. Wind chill values as low as -14. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after midnight. Low around 11. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. I know that's the forecast, but I don't see that happening with the SLP track further north. we're looking at precipitation type issues fairly close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: I know that's the forecast, but I don't see that happening with the SLP track further north. we're looking at precipitation type issues fairly close to us. you could conceivably hit 30 or so in the warm sector and be back to 15 degrees within an hour after the low passes to your north and east with strong winds. It's a different type of clipper...but it's still a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: you could conceivably hit 30 or so in the warm sector and be back to 15 degrees within an hour after the low passes to your north and east with strong winds. It's a different type of clipper...but it's still a clipper. True.. but most of our accumulating snow is in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: True.. but most of our accumulating snow is in the warm sector. I would not be surprised to see the precip/snow wrap all the way back around the low center. To me, despite it's northerly track it still will have the ability to put some snow down fairly far south of the main storm on the arctic front. Seen this before. Quick 2-4" hit with strong winds,blowing snow, and rapidly falling temps. I'm certainly not a met., but do rely on my memory and history of prior events when I see certain set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Roger, what are you thinking for Toronto? 4-6"? With a track north of us, we'll be lucky to get half that. The northern models are quickly diving the PV southward and phasing, causing the slp to curl northward. EURO/UKIE are slower with that feature, and thus more favourable to us (although they've been inching north too). I'd say 3-4" for us right now, and hope to god it doesn't trend any further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12 NAM might be north, but is wayyy stronger with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 So here's an *ugly* 500mb depiction from 06z GFS with 200mb winds presented to show the turn to SE around the ridge (over the Rockies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12Z 3K NAM is a little south in Wisconsin it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 12Z 3K NAM is a little south in Wisconsin it looks like It is. Wouldn’t completely count out a shift south enough to bring some heavier snows (maybe 6-9”) south 50 miles or so. Especially with what happened with the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: I would not be surprised to see the precip/snow wrap all the way back around the low center. To me, despite it's northerly track it still will have the ability to put some snow down fairly far south of the main storm on the arctic front. Seen this before. Quick 2-4" hit with strong winds,blowing snow, and rapidly falling temps. I'm certainly not a met., but do rely on my memory and history of prior events when I see certain set ups. and the 3km Nam tries to do just that after getting dry sloted at hr 51 it the backside fills in with snow from hr 54-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z RGEM with a 1000mb on the WI/IL line. Fairly similar to the 12z NAM, a bit weaker and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 And another thing to consider while we have the NAM and the GFS with the low into Southern Wisc we have the Euro (granted alone) into northern IL. who do we trust at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 and a short while later, as that northern polar piece bears down (tricky timing) the 700mb temp/wind panel: still working the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: And another thing to consider while we have the NAM and the GFS with the low into Southern Wisc we have the Euro (granted alone) into northern IL. who do we trust at this range? Probably not the Euro with clippers; if this was a Panhandle Hook I might think differently. I personally wouldn't mind the Euro to win this one, but I think it's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 It may not be much of a consolation, but FWIW, even with the northern track progged, it still looks be to cold enough for the precip to be all snow for you guys ahead of the front. It could be a decent thumping too (quick 3-5"), as the models are showing some decent mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, whoosh said: and a short while later, as that northern polar piece bears down (tricky timing) the 700mb temp/wind panel: still working the turn. Is it one of these deals where the faster the clipper is, the less likely a quicker/sharper turn east? Do the laws of physics work that way here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Is it one of these deals where the faster the clipper is, the less likely a quicker/sharper turn east? Do the laws of physics work that way here I am illiterate in the mathematics of fluid dynamics, but don't confuse the 500mb shortwave with the lower level clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Well MKX is saying 7-11" of snow here. If that comes to fruition then i'm going to have a 20" snowpack before Siberia hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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