Stebo Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: If it comes with 50dbz returns I don't know how that can feel redundant? I don't think I've ever experienced that in a snowstorm. 50dbz? Where is that being modeled lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 A potential "consolation prize" for those well south of the low center could be sort of an interesting temp crash with the cold front. For example the NAM has Cedar Rapids in the mid 30s around 12z Monday, and by 18z it's in the lower teens. Would think there could be some decent instability snow showers in the midst of all that CAA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: 50dbz? Where is that being modeled lol I think he's talking about the 50bz snows with golf ball plus flakes I had last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I think he's talking about the 50bz snows with golf ball plus flakes I had last system. Yes, there have been dynamic systems I have been a part of but I'm pretty certain 50dbz and golf ball sized flakes haven't been a part of any of them. Most of the time I would agree that continuous 3-5" systems could become mundane, but the way this winter started for most of us and the activity we've seen of late it does seem a bit much to be upset about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I think he's talking about the 50bz snows with golf ball plus flakes I had last system. Ahh I was going to say. I haven't seen any of that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st0rmbrkr Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: Whatever the track, this low will be interacting with two very cold air masses ahead and following it in. It may not have a very well-defined warm sector at all, and could become one of those circular blizzards of days past. There was a storm like this on Jan 30-31, 1971 if you want to see an analogue. Snowfalls of 4-8" along the track and 10-15" lake enhanced could be expected. Green Bay might get 15-30 inches of snow out of this as a lake effect dynamic persists ahead of the low and behind it. The u.p. of Michigan will have life-threatening blizzard conditions with -15 air temps and -40 wind chills with S+ from still-unfrozen Lake Superior (we'll see how long that lasts next week). Would say 6-9" most likely for Chicago, 9-15" Milwaukee, 5-10" range in s MI and sw ON to 20" locally in lake effect squalls. Was commenting in the temp thread that the following air mass is record cold already up in the central arctic, -56 F at Shepherd Bay, NU. I really hope you are correct about the totals for Wisconsin, sounds like this system could be a lot of fun. Random question, because Sheperd Bay 10 day forecast looks horrible. Who is Sheperd and why does he have a bay that is so cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 euro 48 hrs 997 SD/Nebraska border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 nope SD/Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 72 hours 1003 eastern indiana/western ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 0z ECMWF did bump north, but is the farthest south of any OP guidance now. It has a track near I-88 in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z ECMWF did bump north, but is the farthest south of any OP guidance now. It has a track near I-88 in IL. Surprisingly though it was a small bump north especially compared to the other models which jumped fairly significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Yea euro didn't jump as north as I expected. Well curious to see what models do tomorrow. Hopefully more sampling will sort this all out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Euro would still be a decent 2-4" type event for the QCA. Would be a nice refresher before the arctic intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Yea euro didn't jump as north as I expected. Well curious to see what models do tomorrow. Hopefully more sampling will sort this all out keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: keep hope alive Very small glimmer of hope. Lol. I'm just trying to avoid plain rain. Like cyclone I want to be as primed as possible for this arctic intrusion. Picked up 2.5in of fluff today. Don't want it to wash away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Very small glimmer of hope. Lol. I'm just trying to avoid plain rain. Like cyclone I want to be as primed as possible for this arctic intrusion. Picked up 2.5in of fluff today. Don't want it to wash away Was looping the 3km NAM radar simulation a bit earlier, and I can definitely envision the system digging further south before it turns more easterly. That would have a big impact further downstream. Not saying it's going to happen, but that's one thing to watch out for as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Was looping the 3km NAM radar simulation a bit earlier, and I can definitely envision the system digging further south before it turns more easterly. That would have a big impact further downstream. Not saying it's going to happen, but that's one thing to watch out for as we go forward. Don't get my hopes up lol. If this was pure clipper system I would be confident on a south shift as we approached because that's common with clippers but due to this being more of a hybrid not so sure that will be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 FWIW, 06Z NAM was south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 9 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Puerto Rico? Im back home in Lansing till the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 06Z GFS still going north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 See LOT going with the north solutions. Feels the Euro is an outlier...which it is at this point. Hoisted Watches for the far north counties of Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 We have a Watch for 7-10 inches of snow in Green County, WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 See LOT going with the north solutions. Feels the Euro is an outlier...which it is at this point. Hoisted Watches for the far north counties of Illinois.4-8 in the point and click. Suprised at that amount seeing that we are at best on the fringe.Looks like a quiet work day staying home from Wisconsin on tap regardless. It was a nightmare drive up there last Wednesday morning. Not doing that again.Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, kevlon62 said: 4-8 in the point and click. Suprised at that amount seeing that we are at best on the fringe. Looks like a quiet work day staying home from Wisconsin on tap regardless. It was a nightmare drive up there last Wednesday morning. Not doing that again. Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk your not really on the fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 LOT snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 your not really on the fringeSay more Edit: Why the conservative WSW from LOT? Not saying I don't see their map. Edit 2: Conservative in terms of only Watches for the northern tier of counties. Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Skilling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Skilling Must be using WGN's own RPM model for that projected storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Must be using WGN's own RPM model for that projected storm track They have been sticking to the southern solution the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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