SchaumburgStormer Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Pack er up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Whatever the track, this low will be interacting with two very cold air masses ahead and following it in. It may not have a very well-defined warm sector at all, and could become one of those circular blizzards of days past. There was a storm like this on Jan 30-31, 1971 if you want to see an analogue. Snowfalls of 4-8" along the track and 10-15" lake enhanced could be expected. Green Bay might get 15-30 inches of snow out of this as a lake effect dynamic persists ahead of the low and behind it. The u.p. of Michigan will have life-threatening blizzard conditions with -15 air temps and -40 wind chills with S+ from still-unfrozen Lake Superior (we'll see how long that lasts next week). Would say 6-9" most likely for Chicago, 9-15" Milwaukee, 5-10" range in s MI and sw ON to 20" locally in lake effect squalls. Was commenting in the temp thread that the following air mass is record cold already up in the central arctic, -56 F at Shepherd Bay, NU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 17 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Pack er up Pack her up as “pack her up 18 inches is gone” or pack her up “it’s a dusting”? im good with a 3-6 “normal snow” around here :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, michaelmantis said: Pack her up as “pack her up 18 inches is gone” or pack her up “it’s a dusting”? im good with a 3-6 “normal snow” around here :-) If I'm stuck suffering negative numbness - go big or go home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 imo, too early to bail if you're within like 50-75 miles of the current progged location of the heavy snow swath. Adjustments of that magnitude at this time lead, while perhaps not extremely common, are not some exotic rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 You want to see something that would really be north. Check out the 03z RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: imo, too early to bail if you're within like 50-75 miles of the current progged location of the heavy snow swath. Adjustments of that magnitude at this time lead, while perhaps not extremely common, are not some exotic rarity. Especially after the GFS shifted 150 miles within 48 hours last storm. Personally would love to get above freezing. Wouldn’t be upset to see a little rain to clear off my car too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Only low-res maps out for now, but looks like 0z UKMET runs along the IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: You want to see something that would really be north. Check out the 03z RAP. That would probably track north of MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 So...GFS wins? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Seems like the IL-WI border is the spot on models tonight. That would really hurt a lot of us in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 0z FV runs from just north of DBQ to MKE, so north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Approximately 2 hours till the fat lady sings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 It usually starts running by midnight. I'm guessing it is going to cave and follow tonight's trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: My exact feelings tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 You guys are all crazy.. Even with the SLP tracking north, still a decent amount of snow for many on here. Usually we all be happy for 4+ snow potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 0z GEFS a bit north and a bit drier again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: You guys are all crazy.. Even with the SLP tracking north, still a decent amount of snow for many on here. Usually we all be happy for 4+ snow potential This. Not sure what is triggering the onslaught of pessimism. The really key cycle is 00z Sunday. If we aren't seeing south trend then, that's a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: You guys are all crazy.. Even with the SLP tracking north, still a decent amount of snow for many on here. Usually we all be happy for 4+ snow potential 3-5" snows are redundant after a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 At this point I will just be happy if I don't see rain which is looking increasingly likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: You guys are all crazy.. Even with the SLP tracking north, still a decent amount of snow for many on here. Usually we all be happy for 4+ snow potential you are correctly the 0Z GFS spits out .42 precip for ORD I would think we should still have a 4-6 inch event as it currently stands. However if the clear trend north persists that aint happening. It would be awesome of the Euro could stay steady in here but everything today execept the 0Z NAM has been NORTH!! We will see when then Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 3-5" snows are redundant after a while. Maybe so but in this case, it adds to the snowpack for the incoming airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 3-5" snows are redundant after a while. IMBY- Blizzard warning in November = 4 Winter storm warning last week = 5 3-5 could tie the biggest snow event this year for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, ILSNOW said: you are correctly the 0Z GFS spits out .42 precip for ORD I would think we should still have a 4-6 inch event as it currently stands. However if the clear trend north persists that aint happening. It would be awesome of the Euro could stay steady in here but everything today execept the 0Z NAM has been NORTH!! We will see when then Euro comes out. 0.40" wouldn't put down 4-6" though, as ratios would be 10:1 to less, with not the best thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Storm is still 48hrs out so wouldn't be surprised to see things come back south even though everything seems to be trending north simultaneously atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I'll be happy if I can get 2 to 4 over the next 5 days just to get some cover for the cold blast it's pretty crazy with all of this cold air finally dropping in every time we get some snow it's getting erased then sub zero temps move in. Very strange pattern around here with the deep cold followed by quick warmth then deep cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Maybe so but in this case, it adds to the snowpack for the incoming airmass. See my post in the complaint dept in that regard. If we get peanuts and then ultra cold I will want spring after that nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Storm is still 48hrs out so wouldn't be surprised to see things come back south even though everything seems to be trending north simultaneously atm. I agree. It really is strange though. We've been seeing upwards of 50 degree temp swings in 24-48 hours the past couple weeks. KIND calling for lowest temps since 2014 but preceded by rain. Im used to being on the knifes edge around here but this is kinda nuts. WAA coming from every direction the colder it gets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 3-5" snows are redundant after a while. If it comes with 50dbz returns I don't know how that can feel redundant? I don't think I've ever experienced that in a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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