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Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29


Baum

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Whatever the track, this low will be interacting with two very cold air masses ahead and following it in. It may not have a very well-defined warm sector at all, and could become one of those circular blizzards of days past. There was a storm like this on Jan 30-31, 1971 if you want to see an analogue. Snowfalls of 4-8" along the track and 10-15" lake enhanced could be expected.

Green Bay might get 15-30 inches of snow out of this as a lake effect dynamic persists ahead of the low and behind it. The u.p. of Michigan will have life-threatening blizzard conditions with -15 air temps and -40 wind chills with S+ from still-unfrozen Lake Superior (we'll see how long that lasts next week). 

Would say 6-9" most likely for Chicago, 9-15" Milwaukee, 5-10" range in s MI and sw ON to 20" locally in lake effect squalls. 

Was commenting in the temp thread that the following air mass is record cold already up in the central arctic, -56 F at Shepherd Bay, NU. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

imo, too early to bail if you're within like 50-75 miles of the current progged location of the heavy snow swath.  Adjustments of that magnitude at this time lead, while perhaps not extremely common, are not some exotic rarity.

Especially after the GFS shifted 150 miles within 48 hours last storm. 

 

Personally would love to get above freezing. Wouldn’t be upset to see a little rain to clear off my car too. 

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

You guys are all crazy.. Even with the SLP tracking north, still a decent amount of snow for many on here. Usually we all be happy for 4+ snow potential 

This.  Not sure what is triggering the onslaught of pessimism.  

The really key cycle is 00z Sunday.  If we aren't seeing south trend then, that's a problem.

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

You guys are all crazy.. Even with the SLP tracking north, still a decent amount of snow for many on here. Usually we all be happy for 4+ snow potential 

you are correctly the 0Z GFS spits out .42 precip for ORD I would think we should still have a 4-6 inch event as it currently stands. However if the clear trend north persists that aint happening. It would be awesome of the Euro could stay steady in here but everything today execept the 0Z NAM has been NORTH!!

 

We will see when then Euro comes out.

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Just now, ILSNOW said:

you are correctly the 0Z GFS spits out .42 precip for ORD I would think we should still have a 4-6 inch event as it currently stands. However if the clear trend north persists that aint happening. It would be awesome of the Euro could stay steady in here but everything today execept the 0Z NAM has been NORTH!!

 

We will see when then Euro comes out.

0.40" wouldn't put down 4-6" though, as ratios would be 10:1 to less, with not the best thermal profiles.

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I'll be happy if I can get 2 to 4 over the next 5 days just to get some cover for the cold blast  it's pretty crazy with all of this cold air finally dropping in every time we get some snow it's getting erased then sub zero temps move in.  Very strange pattern around here with the deep cold followed by quick warmth then deep cold.  

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Storm is still 48hrs out so wouldn't be surprised to see things come back south even though everything seems to be trending north simultaneously atm.  

I agree.  It really is strange though.  We've been seeing upwards of 50 degree temp swings in 24-48 hours the past couple weeks.  KIND calling for lowest temps since 2014 but preceded by rain.  Im used to being on the knifes edge around here but this is kinda nuts.    WAA coming from every direction the colder it gets!

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