Baum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Think it makes sense to isolate this particular event away from the clipper train thread as it seems it has the potential to be somewhat more impactful. These type of events are some of my favorite as they are already moving into a bitterly cold arctic air mass and have the ability to pull both pacific and gulf moisture into the cold air mass creating a high ratio snow event and many times a fairly long duration snow event. Further, they posses the ability to provide wide areas of the forum a decent snowfall not as zone centric as some of this years previous storms. Last I recall of this type was the opening first few days of January 2014 that provided a similar storm followed by some brutally chilly air in the midwest....if memory serves me correct. We are still 4 days out so plenty can change but feel a thread highlighting this event is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Good call on forming this tread @Baum These are typically good for lots of folks in the Sub, and pave the way for some nice cold. One thing I do recall with these events is a strong dry slot and tight gradients, especially the stronger they are. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Speaking of long duration, potential for about 18-24 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 NWS Chicago AFD highlighted "uncertainties are a bit lower then average" which is wording they don't use often... It is going to be an interesting next 10 days... If N IL does get more snow and the cold is as bad as it seems (with the wind chills), I could see a few days off school for kids next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 18z GFS is a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 18z GFS is a bit north. And you get the prize for the first "directional shift" post in this thread (that will likely grow to the hundreds of posts very shortly...) ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 18z GFS is a bit north. StormChaser4Life just threw his computer out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 But for real, I agree with Andy’s last post in the other thread. Think there’s more potential with this system. We watch and wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Overall consistency from the models since Monday regarding this storm is actually pretty remarkable. Also getting excited about a pretty strong LES signal (although details yet to be pinned down). Still 96+ hours out, but so far looking good for our first 6"+ storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, michaelmantis said: And you get the prize for the first "directional shift" post in this thread (that will likely grow to the hundreds of posts very shortly...) ;-) When do we see the 1st post where within minutes of each other one poster "insert model name looks north" while another 1 says of that same model "insert model name looks South" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I'm looking forward to this system. Barring a complete miss I will be happy. There is some frozen snow outside but those bare spots thanks to yesterday have to go. It's easy to be jealous of the deeper snow in eastern IA and western IL, but we cant jackpot every Winter. As long as a fresh looking winter wonderland returns for the record cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Considering we are still a good ways out and within an envelope of 100ish miles, that’s a good signal. I would be cautiously optimistic if you are sitting north of I-80 to the WI border in IL. The real question is can this storm tap its full potential. Do we have a high end hybrid clipper, or one we can add to the “top storms” list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The latest from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Considering we are still a good ways out and within an envelope of 100ish miles, that’s a good signal. I would be cautiously optimistic if you are sitting north of I-80 to the WI border in IL. The real question is can this storm tap its full potential. Do we have a high end hybrid clipper, or one we can add to the “top storms” list. What these weak systems should do is reinforce the baroclinic zone and try to keep it farther south. Especially if one of these waves comes in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I'm surprised some are anxious to see the 84 hour nam. That's about as accurate as the 180 hour gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm surprised some are anxious to see the 84 hour nam. That's about as accurate as the 180 hour gfs lol Lol I know it is a long shot. But hey it can't be worse than goofus right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm looking forward to this system. Barring a complete miss I will be happy. There is some frozen snow outside but those bare spots thanks to yesterday have to go. It's easy to be jealous of the deeper snow in eastern IA and western IL, but we cant jackpot every Winter. As long as a fresh looking winter wonderland returns for the record cold blast. My thoughts exactly. Not gonna be greedy. Just want to be hospitable when his majesty from the North comes for a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just unbelievable to think how this storm will be further priming an already favorable setup for historic cold. I think we are going to see a lot of records shattered. I can't even fathom wind chills of -40 and lower. Last year we got into wind chills well into the -20's and that was awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Just unbelievable to think how this storm will be further priming an already favorable setup for historic cold. I think we are going to see a lot of records shattered. I can't even fathom wind chills of -40 and lower. Last year we got into wind chills well into the -20's and that was awful January 2014 featured -50°F to -60°F wind chill temperatures here in Northwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Jim Martin said: January 2014 featured -50°F to -60°F wind chill temperatures here in Northwest Ohio. I think that's the cold snap I'm thinking of that was unprecedented before this one. That one also featured a piece of the polar vortex coming very far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 My plan is to go out in a t-shirt on my driveway for thirty seconds so that I can appreciate just how cold it really is, simply because who knows when we'll be able to experience it again (if this outbreak is really as severe as is currently shown to be possible). /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 No political talk, even if you are joking around. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Malacka11 said: My plan is to go out in a t-shirt on my driveway for thirty seconds so that I can appreciate just how cold it really is, simply because who knows when we'll be able to experience it again (if this outbreak is really as severe as is currently shown to be possible). /s I think you will regret that instantly. Try for a polar plunge or a snow angel. Lol. I'm definitely going to do the infamous boiling water to ice crystals. Sorry to get off topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I think you will regret that instantly. Try for a polar plunge or a snow angel. Lol. I'm definitely going to do the infamous boiling water to ice crystals. Sorry to get off topic Hey... That's actually a great idea! I've seen so many videos of it but doing it myself would be something else. As long as I don't scald my a** in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Huh! Lot's of chatta but not one eye-candy map. I like the restraint of this sub! Guess we're saving 'em for closer in. Well then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Huh! Lot's of chatta but not one eye-candy map. I like the restraint of this sub! Guess we're saving 'em for closer in. Well then.. Yea still too early 0z nam had a track similar to 18z gfs. But gfs has been all over the place and that's nam's long range so not really reliable at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 0z GFS going to come in back south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 0z NAM didn’t have a terrible track, but it’s running warmer with thermals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS going to come in back south. . Sort of looks like it's in between the 12z and 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Sort of looks like it's in between the 12z and 18z runs. Taking the low right over DKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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