February 2019 Winter Speculation

[Carvers Gap]

I know @John1122 likes to talk about how the Pacific is more important than the Atlantic for the forum area in terms of winter weather.  If he wants to write a thesis on that importance of that topic, this winter is absolutely textbook.  The EPO or PNA ridge has been key all winter.  Without it...nothing.  This winter will be its own analog IMHO.  Not many like it up to this point.  On the positive, we have gained some great posters during the past year and are seeing some of the old crew posting as well.  Hopefully we can gain a few year round posters as we go into the "off-season" after March.  With so much cold lurking, have to think we get one last storm or two to track.  El Ninos tend to have surprises...

I am about out of football analogies.  Here is some baseball as spring training is now on the horizon...Our starter was throwing heat during the first inning.  However, he was tripped accidentally by his own teammate as he was going into the dugout in between innings(Mugsy J. Olson was the perp).  He survived that scare.  However, another teammate (Stephen S. Willliams) fouled one off into the dugout...and our starter got earholed during the bottom of the first.  The bullpen has been struggling to find a replacement after this bizarre sequence of events.  Sedric O. Issacs was not even his usually self on the mound.  Sometimes that guy can be so irritatingly nice and positive.  We are now in the seventh inning stretch down 3-1.  We think we have a good closer...his name is "The Kid".  He likes to come onto the field with "Wild Thing" playing.   If he his going to have a chance, Nathan A. Olsen(bottom of the lineup) is going to have to get on base and let Phillip N. Anthony is going to have to go yard....then Wild Thing can get it going....or not.  Cause after looking at wx modeling this afternoon...I am feeling a bit like this.

Hopefully, this wx pattern is not as bad as that anology!  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

A person could argue, looking at the Ops today, that because we have had sooooooooooooôooooooöoooooooooooo many amazing 10 -15 day periods that just slowly and torturously died as verification and reality approached, that we are due for a turn around proportional to how awful 12z and 18z looked. 

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/fe2e2b42-782b-4b6a-b20e-013526f6244d 

It is a little depressing, but..... 

Dobbs brought us back from worse. 

[John1122]

The Pacific drives the bus far more than anything else, always have said that. Especially the EPO. If it's solidly negative we are cooking with gas, without it, we can't light a match at times.  If we'd had great Pacific blocking the MJO doesn't really even matter very much. Without it, it still doesn't matter very much, if we get phase 8 and the Pacific isn't good it won't deliver cold.

When the NAO/AO/PNA/EPO line up we get a winter blitz. But we can get great winter with just the PNA/EPO. Just the NAO/AO without the Pacific being right is just a tough proposition and less likely to produce wintry weather here.

I'll stand by what I said a few days ago. I feel winter is effectively over. We many get a winter storm to track, but it won't be anything like what could have been. In most any other year having such a massive cold outbreak over Illinois/Minnesota etc would have produced an epic winter here. Not this year though. Nothing worked.

Temps finished January at normal in Crossville. As I pointed out earlier this past fall any prior November that was that cold in Crossville (-5) as 2018 led to well BN January temps over the last 70 years. It worked out that way as recently as a couple of years ago. 70 percent of winters from Jackson, to Paducah to Bristol to Chattanooga to Huntsville produced well above average snow at all those locations Dec-Mar.

So we are in very rare territory temp wise and snow wise this winter for most of the area. Especially from Clarksville to the Plateau/SEKY.

Almost all of the winters that had such a cold November produced a major winter weather event over most all of the forum area as well from Dec-Mar. Nothing doing this year. Only SWVA/NE Tennessee had such an event. 

[weathertree4u]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Pacific drives the bus far more than anything else, always have said that. Especially the EPO. If it's solidly negative we are cooking with gas, without it, we can't light a match at times.  If we'd had great Pacific blocking the MJO doesn't really even matter very much. Without it, it still doesn't matter very much, if we get phase 8 and the Pacific isn't good it won't deliver cold.

When the NAO/AO/PNA/EPO line up we get a winter blitz. But we can get great winter with just the PNA/EPO. Just the NAO/AO without the Pacific being right is just a tough proposition and less likely to produce wintry weather here.

I'll stand by what I said a few days ago. I feel winter is effectively over. We many get a winter storm to track, but it won't be anything like what could have been. In most any other year having such a massive cold outbreak over Illinois/Minnesota etc would have produced an epic winter here. Not this year though. Nothing worked.

Temps finished January at normal in Crossville. As I pointed out earlier this past fall any prior November that was that cold in Crossville (-5) as 2018 led to well BN January temps over the last 70 years. It worked out that way as recently as a couple of years ago. 70 percent of winters from Jackson, to Paducah to Bristol to Chattanooga to Huntsville produced well above average snow at all those locations Dec-Mar.

So we are in very rare territory temp wise and snow wise this winter for most of the area. Especially from Clarksville to the Plateau/SEKY.

Almost all of the winters that had such a cold November produced a major winter weather event over most all of the forum area as well from Dec-Mar. Nothing doing this year. Only SWVA/NE Tennessee had such an event. 

Statistically speaking though, eventually, we are due for this streak of blah Winters to break though. You would think that the low solar time we are heading into would be assisting to some extent with things in the future, we can hope right? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

finally got the SOI negative again.... maybe a sign convection is dying or moving away.........

Not much else to say

[John1122]

6 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

Statistically speaking though, eventually, we are due for this streak of blah Winters to break though. You would think that the low solar time we are heading into would be assisting to some extent with things in the future, we can hope right? 

I'm not sure what the new normals may be these days, especially regarding January, where winter weather doesn't seem to occur in widespread fashion in our forum area any more.  It's been a very harsh winter in parts of the country, but it's been decidedly average here with below average snowfall for almost all of us. The fact that so many elements that would normally make for a cold/snowy winter here were in place and it still didn't happen makes you wonder what the next few years will look like if things are not favorable for winter weather. One thing is for sure, using the past to see what may or should happen is probably at an all time low as far as it's usefulness.

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I'm not sure what the new normals may be these days, especially regarding January, where winter weather doesn't seem to occur in widespread fashion in our forum area any more.  It's been a very harsh winter in parts of the country, but it's been decidedly average here with below average snowfall for almost all of us. The fact that so many elements that would normally make for a cold/snowy winter here were in place and it still didn't happen makes you wonder what the next few years will look like if things are not favorable for winter weather. One thing is for sure, using the past to see what may or should happen is probably at an all time low as far as it's usefulness.

Valid point

[TellicoWx]

There's a small window on the weeklies, but we need the PNA to look like the ensembles and nothing near with the control shows (if control is right, the cold that comes down will go west). Outside of that window, it's almost time to look toward severe season.

[jaxjagman]

East Asia is fixing to change.We no longer see the heights building up into Korea and Japan every 3-4 days and then troughs knocking them back down,it's been like a wash,rinse and repeat pattern the last couple weeks,hints this will end.Still looks to me a cool down like i said around the 11th like i said last weekend (give or take East Asia rule),should get colder and a potential good system the Mid of Feb.MJO on the Euro is on our side to have an OT win,we'll see if it slows down and can stay out of the COD.Seems like our only shot after the MJO gets out of the IO say hello to spring

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Definitely seems to be some optimism today that we are going to FINALLY see some El Nino type forcing, but most are rather guarded after how things have gone so far. Can't blame anyone. 

 

Look to be some vigorous shortwaves over Eurasia, so hopefully they can mix things up a bit and interact with a more favorable tropical forcing regime as they head our way. 

In the meantime, wouldn't be surprised if the SE ridge gets stronger closer to verification time. Over performed today in Knoxville in the low 60s. 

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Definitely seems to be some optimism today that we are going to FINALLY see some El Nino type forcing, but most are rather guarded after how things have gone so far. Can't blame anyone. 

 

Look to be some vigorous shortwaves over Eurasia, so hopefully they can mix things up a bit and interact with a more favorable tropical forcing regime as they head our way. 

In the meantime, wouldn't be surprised if the SE ridge gets stronger closer to verification time. Over performed today in Knoxville in the low 60s. 

Both GFS and Euro most definite missed this.Euro was 54,GFS 50 for daytime highs,we hit 65 here

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Also wouldn't be surprised if that SE ridge ends up being a nicer break from the rain for us eastern valley folks than current modeling would have us believe. 70s and sun will do wonders for drying out my yard, so may be wishcasting. Certainly could turn out wrong, but in my experience these mid - long range modeled duration southwest flow/ gradient events tend to correct more toward the Ohio Valley vs. our eastern areas as we get closer as modeling keys in on and amps individual shortwaves that may seem to run together at range. 

On a side note hopefully we can get some of those cutters to amp up toward the north Atlantic and help with the cyclonic wave break Masiello is guardedly optimistic may help lead to the ever mysterious -NAO 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I know we've been in ensemble land for a bit, but man oh man, the Op. Euro is building a mega EPO ridge towards the end of its run:

 

I know that it doesn't look like it would necessarily help us get snow as it stands, but if that verifies that is some big time, cutoff, high latitude blocking. The Euro may not be 100 % perfect at weather details on the local scale, but at 500 mb it's pretty good. Looks like the ridge, as it evolves may also be trying to push more east with time, which is exactly what we'd want. Like UTs special teams this fall we've had some terrible false starts/ illegal formations, but ........ 

Is now the time? Is it finally happening? 

EPS likes the idea and eventually, albeit washed out on the ensemble mean, pushes it into the AO domain. 

 

Pac. convection looks to be finally cooperating as sea temps are looking (not perfect) but at least more Modoki-ish.  MJO wave is dying and looks to reemerge toward phase 8. Maybe the coronal hole will help. 

-NAO signals are tentatively creeping up. 

My take:

Fish are starting to poke their heads out on the Madison, Carvers.  The sun is setting. Hope we have the iris caddis flies. 

 

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I know we've been in ensemble land for a bit, but man oh man, the Op. Euro is building a mega EPO ridge towards the end of its run:

 

I know that it doesn't look like it would necessarily help us get snow as it stands, but if that verifies that is some big time, cutoff, high latitude blocking. The Euro may not be 100 % perfect at weather details on the local scale, but at 500 mb it's pretty good. Looks like the ridge, as it evolves may also be trying to push more east with time, which is exactly what we'd want. Like UTs special teams this fall we've had some terrible false starts/ illegal formations, but ........ 

Is now the time? Is it finally happening? 

EPS likes the idea and eventually, albeit washed out on the ensemble mean, pushes it into the AO domain. 

 

Pac. convection looks to be finally cooperating as sea temps are looking (not perfect) but at least more Modoki-ish.  MJO wave is dying and looks to reemerge toward phase 8. Maybe the coronal hole will help. 

-NAO signals are tentatively creeping up. 

My take:

Fish are starting to poke their heads out on the Madison, Carvers.  The sun is setting. Hope we have the iris caddis flies. 

 

Even with a decent Omega being shown the PNA don't look like it's going to cooperate,all the cold will stay out west .Some quick shots of transient cool shots upcoming,but nothing  much other than that.We could possibly hit upper 70's around here next week which could break record highs.This winter has been a big disappointment

[Holston_River_Rambler]

You're right to say this winter has been a disappointment. Some of the best minds claimed that it would be good.

2 months in...........

Not so much overall. Yeah, NE TN got some nice snow. I don't begrudge them that. I'm genuinely happy when people get some snow here. Yeah the MA got a couple of good ones too. I rejoice for them (I say 'for' since some up that way seem sad).  NE and NYC have had it rough. Boston is at 2.3" I think as of today. So, I think it is fair to say this winter has been a disappointment for many in the Eastern US. 

Yet for something to be a dis-appointment it must first be appointed to be this or that. This winter certainly was appointed to be snowy and colder than normal. I know I bought in -- line, bait, hook, line, sinker, and bobber -- to the forecasts of isotherm, 40/70, Sutherland (recently revised forecast) among others. We supposedly had the near-mystical weak - moderate Modoki El Nino, were on the cusp of low solar, and to be frank, seemed to be due for a decent winter, somewhere in the TN valley. We even had John's cold November. Typically that would correlate to a Dec thaw and then a good Jan - Feb. As he has pointed out, it hasn't worked out, for background climate or other reasons, yet-to-be-determined. 

What went wrong? Looks to me like Pacific SSTs were either used too little or not as a whole:

PDO

Sutherland: "The PDO has gone positive in December after a somewhat negative November (based on daily data). Some caution is advised, as daily data was used. The JSAO.Washington.edu PDO page has not been updated recently (its last monthly value was +0.09 for September). A positive PDO has typically been present during snowy El Niño winters." 

Isotherm: "Accordingly, a positive/warm PDO will aid in obviating persistent, deeply negative AAM periods over the coming months."

40/70: " Both phases should begin to become biased towards positive as we begin the new year, and the fledgling el nino beings to assert itself. The mean DM PDO value should measure anywhere from roughly +.40 to +.70, with the DM PNA verifying +.25 to +.55." 

griteater: "PDO – the PDO isn’t in a strongly positive or strongly negative phase at the moment." 

Looks to me like most forecasters here either expected the PDO to cooperate, thus producing a more favorable Pac, or didn't give it it's full due. 

Expected ENSO reality

Sutherland: "El Niño conditions (Central Pacific-centered) already exist and are forecast by the guidance to persist through the winter. Therefore, my confidence concerning the state of ENSO is high. On account of forecasting limitations and sample size limitations, my confidence is moderate, not high with respect to both those major hemispheric teleconnection indices."

Isotherm: "The genesis of a weak El Nino event has occurred, and accordingly, the sea surface temperature anomaly profile in the central Pacific is highly reflective of a positive/warm ENSO event. SOI values have been redolent of neutral ENSO, as the 30 day running SOI value is around 4.7, and October’s mean SOI value was 2.61, following September’s -8.5 (more indicative of El Nino). It is possible to have spasmodic SOI fluctuations such that some months are Nino-esque while others are not; however, the totality of the oscillations suggest very strongly that the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) is unlikely to exceed low-end moderate El Nino status. I expect that the ONI peak will fall within the range of +0.8 to +1.0c, with low probability of exceeding +1.0c." 

40/70: "Weak Modoki El Nino (0.9 to 1.1C ONI) (DJF)"

griteater: "This concept suggests that the upcoming winter may very well share some pattern characteristics with the recent Weak El Nino of 2014-2015."

A weak - moderate Modoki was expected and the reality ended up being more basin wide and muted by exceedingly warm SSTs near the Maritime Continent. Nov. SSTs

 

Typical Modoki (from http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en).

The real wild card for me this year was learning about AAM (atmospheric angular momentum). I'll be honest here and say that I just haven't had enough time to learn as much about as I should.  Yet, it played a role in the forecast:

AAM component:

Sutherland: no mention

isotherm: "Atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) has generally been running on the negative side from late summer 2018 through mid-autumn 2018, suggestive of greater easterly wind stress in the atmosphere. While this is a La Nina signal typically, AAM can be negative through El Nino winters, wherefore, the resultant sensible weather patterns are quite different. However, westerly momentum has increased in recent weeks, in response to more frequent positive frictional and mountain torque event propagating poleward through the atmosphere. These westerly additions have begun to alter the hemispheric and global flows. Concordantly, an El Nino-esque z500 pattern will continue to develop down the road. It is also salient to note that many of the moderate to strongly negative AAM El Nino winters featured much colder Pacific SSTA (sea surface temperature anomalies), as negative/cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) have been shown to retard westerly wind flows, concomitantly enhancing base state easterlies."

40/70: no mention

griteater: Global AAM for Sep-Oct was right around 0.  Here is how that compares with other El Ninos since 1950- https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1059536786706305024

I honestly don't quite understand it just yet, but looks like it was either underestimated as a player for jet forcing, or not considered at all. The reality seems to have been more positive than anticipated in initial forecasts. 

EDIT: Eric Webb had a good explanation of AAM this morning and the image I was trying to find that showed how it too was different now:

 

Notice how the westerly (psoitive/ yellow-orange) anomalies are propogating equatorward now, instead of poleward in the N. Hemisphere. Webb says this will eventually lead to a stronger sub tropic jet aimed at the southern US. Lord have mercy if that's true! It already looks strong. Maybe it will slow down the Nina-ish northern stream though. 

And look, as I have said umpteen thousand times, I have no business critiquing their forecasts. I can look at them and try to draw conclusions, but I didn't make one. I have no business telling them they were right or wrong. And frankly I just don't care about critiquing them, aside from what I can learn from what they said, how they said it, and how it played out. 

 

So what now? Why should anything be different? 

Global SSTs HAVE changed, as they always do, especially in the tropical Pac:

The seemingly endless convection over the Maritime Continent has done some work on the SSTs there. Will it lead to better chances for convection over the dateline and east? Models seem to think so:

 

If the MJO does move to phase 8 and then slows through 1 and 2 and 3, that should help with the PNA look more favorable as models pick up on it. After all models are just numbers put into an admittedly, exceedingly complex series of algorithms. But as they initiate in poorer MJO states, I expect them to show poorer results.  Do I have any proof that this will happen? No. I respect skepticism here and I have quite a bit myself. But given all the other factors discussed below and above, I think it has a real chance this time. PSU had a good post in the MA forum earlier looking not at MJO forecast, but it's behavior this winter.

psuhoffman: "But here is what I see now.  The first mjo wave of the winter season began in phase 1/2 and slowly toured 3/4/5/6/7 then died into 8.  The next wave initiated in 4 and went strong through 5/6 and is now dying in 7.  The next wave immediately initiates (same as 3 weeks ago) around 6/7 and heads towards 8.  Following seasonal tendencies it should progress through at least 8/1 slowly through late February and into Early March. It probably will get into 2/3 before dying sometime in March. And if it dies in phase 1/2/3 we would likely experience lingering positive effects until the next wave initiated strongly unto warm phases. By then we’re talking mid/late March and who cares. Climo slams shut by then around DC and even up here it’s pretty iffy after March 15." 

SSWe

The SSW was a wild card that some have acknowledged hurt how they thought the winter would evolve. Only griteater and isotherm mentioned a SSW in their initial forecasts, unless I overlooked it.

Grit said:

"Given all of the above, in my view, the chances of an SSW or significant SPV weakening in early winter (Dec – early Jan) are higher than the climatological mean (note: if an SSW were to occur this winter, it would likely lead to a cold period in the Eastern U.S. given that the background ENSO state favors an Eastern U.S. trough).

Isotherm said:

"In light of the combination of factors discussed, tropospheric blocking will be greater than normal, but I anticipate that there will not be a technical sudden stratospheric warming event in the meteorological winter. However, this will be immaterial insofar as the impact on the tropospheric sensible weather pattern."

but has subsequently added that the SSWe destructively interfered with how he thought winter would progress. 

My take (and I know there is disagreement here on how it played out) is that the the strat, in conjunction with the tropical troposphere, worked to strengthen an atmosphere/ SSTs already predisposed to tropical forcing more akin to a Nina than a Nino, up to this point. 

The SPV is, hopefully, calming down now and strengthening and should play no part, even if there was a renewed attack as the long range GFS has occasionally suggested. 

We also have a stout SE ridge developing. This should help storms track N. of the TN valley, aimed at the N. Atlantic and perhaps like last winter as they break (cyclonic wave breaks) over the N. Atlantic, they will help develop a -NAO. Do we have to have this? No. But it can help slow the flow and as it backs up, interfere with a northern stream jet more like a Nina base state. 

My basic take is that changes are happening as we speak. Could it be another head fake? Sure. But we have an atmosphere and SSTs that are no longer predictions for winter, but realities that the weather will respond to across the N. hemisphere. Will it respond favorably for snow somewhere in the TN valley? That's the billion bit coin question. The status quo has worked ok for some, maybe changes will work better. I have nothing to lose. If we get a giant SE ridge, I get better hiking weather, more sun, and a chance to learn more about severe weather. If we get a favorable snow pattern for 4 weeks, we get snow and I'm happy too. 

I'm sure there could be something to be said about the QBO here too, but y'all know more about that than me. Probably something I should spend more time learning about. 

Carvers, you asked earlier why some posts were in banter that might be ok in the actual pattern thread. This is why. For my part alone, I feel like my optimism and sharing of gifs of great patterns and snow maps has lead to some of the disappointment, by something like digital confirmation bias. More snow maps = more hope in digital reality. Then real reality lays the law down.  I guess I feel like people take it less seriously in banter, so there's less pressure for any of it to matter. 

 

[John1122]

Probably the toughest aspect of this winter is that we entered January with what seemed to be great players on the field heading into the most favored period of winter for Jan 15th-Feb 15th. Through all of that I managed about 6 cold days and 1/2 inch of snow after the ensembles of every model kept spitting out 3-6+ inches valley wide for several 15 day periods. It's hard to believe that that many members missed everything that often.

These days I have a go big winter or a go home winter imby. I pretty much go over 20 inches or stay under 8 with no in between. For the balance of my life there was a 4 inch snow at minimum every single winter. This looks likely to be the 3rd in a row without one.  I did have a 4 inch event last year but it was in late March when winter was over. The year before I barely managed more than 4 inches the entire winter, literally the lowest total here, possibly ever but for sure in the last 70+ years. The two winters before that I was around 30 inches and a lot of ice. The 1990s were this way to a large extent. Except there wasn't a winter in the 1990s that I didn't get at least 4 inches in a single event.  Carvers mentioned this Nino reminded him of the 90s Ninos. The entire decade reminds me of them. Super strong Ninos both decades. A few frigid snowy winters and several warm wet ones. Most of the time I feel like I've moved 150 miles south of where I lived in the 1970s and 1980s.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

After sleeping on it overnight and looking at ensembles this AM, here's where I think we could be headed.

Scenario one: EPS is right with its EPO and we get a quick shot at something mid to late Feb. Or we just luck out with where the boundary sets up with a wave riding it. It is Feb. after all. 

Scenario two: The GEFS's depiction of the total opposite in the EPO region is right, but........... if you look at the end of the GEFS, (loop it and watch the height lines) you can see an actual PNA ridge starting to build. Sadly I think this option is more in line with how things have gone, but I do think it leads to a nice pattern. Unfortunately it may end up, after all we've been through this winter, that it comes down to a week and a half or two in March. That can still work for some of us though. 

GEFS and EPS have the unicorn (-NAO) now too toward the end and a person could argue that a slackening of AAM (as shown in the image in my post last night) might help blocking in a several high latitude regions this time around, since the northern jet should slow some. 

The reality will likely be somewhere in the middle, but just not enough time to think about it this morning. I do think once the models initialize with the MJO in a more nino ish set up, we at least start to see some nice fantasy storms and heck, that's half of it for me at this point. We can't guarantee storms will hit us, but as we all know the good ol Fv3 will try hard, lol.  

[weathertree4u]

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

After sleeping on it overnight and looking at ensembles this AM, here's where I think we could be headed.

Scenario one: EPS is right with its EPO and we get a quick shot at something mid to late Feb. Or we just luck out with where the boundary sets up with a wave riding it. It is Feb. after all. 

Scenario two: The GEFS's depiction of the total opposite in the EPO region is right, but........... if you look at the end of the GEFS, (loop it and watch the height lines) you can see an actual PNA ridge starting to build. Sadly I think this option is more in line with how things have gone, but I do think it leads to a nice pattern. Unfortunately it may end up, after all we've been through this winter, that it comes down to a week and a half or two in March. That can still work for some of us though. 

GEFS and EPS have the unicorn (-NAO) now too toward the end and a person could argue that a slackening of AAM (as shown in the image in my post last night) might help blocking in a several high latitude regions this time around, since the northern jet should slow some. 

The reality will likely be somewhere in the middle, but just not enough time to think about it this morning. I do think once the models initialize with the MJO in a more nino ish set up, we at least start to see some nice fantasy storms and heck, that's half of it for me at this point. We can't guarantee storms will hit us, but as we all know the good ol Fv3 will try hard, lol.  

So, no offense intended but we are just throwing pasta at the wall seeing which sticks at this point 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I could be.

What do you think about what I said?  

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For my part, I think I've said all I can usefully say at this point. I have hit the current limit of what I can do or understand. Maybe I am just throwing pasta against the wall and seeing what sticks and then looking for pattern as though it were the meteorological equivalent of a Rorschach test.  You could be right. 

[weathertree4u]

14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I could be.

What do you think about what I said?  

 

 

 

I think it's possible but I think the bigger question looking back on the season, is why things behaved so different than past climatology seemed to suggest 

[weathertree4u]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

For my part, I think I've said all I can usefully say at this point. I have hit the current limit of what I can do or understand. Maybe I am just throwing pasta against the wall and seeing what sticks and then looking for pattern as though it were the meteorological equivalent of a Rorschach test.  You could be right. 

I think your thoughts are as valuable as others, taken together,  understanding is incre

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I tried to answer some of those questions about what I think went wrong in my longer post from last night, but again I could be totally off base and wrong. 

[Blue Ridge]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

Probably the toughest aspect of this winter is that we entered January with what seemed to be great players on the field heading into the most favored period of winter for Jan 15th-Feb 15th. Through all of that I managed about 6 cold days and 1/2 inch of snow after the ensembles of every model kept spitting out 3-6+ inches valley wide for several 15 day periods. It's hard to believe that that many members missed everything that often.

These days I have a go big winter or a go home winter imby. I pretty much go over 20 inches or stay under 8 with no in between. For the balance of my life there was a 4 inch snow at minimum every single winter. This looks likely to be the 3rd in a row without one.  I did have a 4 inch event last year but it was in late March when winter was over. The year before I barely managed more than 4 inches the entire winter, literally the lowest total here, possibly ever but for sure in the last 70+ years. The two winters before that I was around 30 inches and a lot of ice. The 1990s were this way to a large extent. Except there wasn't a winter in the 1990s that I didn't get at least 4 inches in a single event.  Carvers mentioned this Nino reminded him of the 90s Ninos. The entire decade reminds me of them. Super strong Ninos both decades. A few frigid snowy winters and several warm wet ones. Most of the time I feel like I've moved 150 miles south of where I lived in the 1970s and 1980s.

John, it seems like just 10 years ago we were seeing monster NW flow events at least once a winter that would even get the valleys in on the fun as shortwaves rotated around the base of a trough. Seems like I recall a blizzard warning in portions of WNC during one such event. Am I crazy to think those events have suddenly diminished as well?

[nrgjeff]

MJO index is trying to go into 7-8. However, stubborn convection remains back over Indonesia. 11-15 day train wreck watch is in effect.

China Met Admin agrees on the colder shift in Asia. We'll see if it'll line up in the USA later.

CFS has been promising bullish convection signals all winter, but keeps whiffing. Like watching poor shot selection and constant bricks off the rim. 

Oh a good post-mortem discussion is in Banter. AMO and QBO notes are worth reading. 

Otherwise, see you in the Severe Weather thread.

[John1122]

11 hours ago, Blue Ridge said:

John, it seems like just 10 years ago we were seeing monster NW flow events at least once a winter that would even get the valleys in on the fun as shortwaves rotated around the base of a trough. Seems like I recall a blizzard warning in portions of WNC during one such event. Am I crazy to think those events have suddenly diminished as well?

They've died here for sure. I used to get at least a few inches a year off Lake Michigan. Not lately. Nothing to speak of from clippers the last few years either.  Which is especially strange because we've had a lot of northern stream influence the last two winters. It's just been dry. I think it's been probably 4 years since there was a winter time Alberta Clipper, maybe longer.  Gone are the days of the Siberian Express too.  

 

Holston, as a side note, your posts and looks at pathways to the positive are very well done and I enjoy them. The winter has not been enjoyable after looking so promising, but the law of averages and the way things have been going the last decade, I should have another 25-40 inch winter in the next few years. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro weeklies, fast mode. 

 

Almost the first time they've not shown a great pattern through and through since Dec. Make of it what ye will. 

What a weird evolution it's advertising though! It's like at day 15, the pattern says (oh $#%&, I have to change!!!) and the Pac totally flips for a bit. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

While we're waiting to see how things play out with the pattern, I found this NWS model blend for temps. Obviously horrible of you want cold weather, but I'll take some warmth this week:

 

Just interesting to finally see the "blend" they use. 

[jaxjagman]

57 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

While we're waiting to see how things play out with the pattern, I found this NWS model blend for temps. Obviously horrible of you want cold weather, but I'll take some warmth this week:

 

Just interesting to finally see the "blend" they use. 

Nothing like record highs in winter

BNA record highs... Wednesday, 71; Thursday, 70
BNA record max lows... Wednesday, 57; Thursday, 54
CSV record highs... Wednesday, 65; Thursday, 64
CSV record max lows... Wednesday, 52; Thursday, 54

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We're stepping up to the plate to come from behind for a more dramatic victory. 

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/fe2e2b42-782b-4b6a-b20e-013526f6244d