February 2019 Winter Speculation

[jaxjagman]

Looks like this record will be safe this year

Middle Tennessee Weather History

 

On February 18, 1936...
Low temperature at Nashville falls to -1 -- the latest sub-zero temperature on record.

[Carvers Gap]

Pattern is dry...but here is the d10-15 850 temp look on the EPS.  2m temps have about the same setup.  If the STJ can hold on just a bit, that is a very good look.  Either way, a pattern reversal or relaxation is now at d10(not the d14-15 deal where it holds an does not move forward).  At worst, we dry out.  At best, systems ride the boundary from the southwest to NE...and take the low road.

[Carvers Gap]

Weeklies(which have been iffy at best this season) do show the 2 week relaxation which means an eastern trough...but then revert back to the western trough(Jeff mentions this in banter as well).  Going to be a narrow window 10 day-ish window beginning late next week.  And the question that has been asked all winter...are they even right?  When the pattern reversed in December, the Weeklies kept trying to make it erroneously cold in the East even once it became obvious that the AK reversal to BN heights was a long term feature.  So, does the relaxation even happen?  If it does, will the LR models be too quick to move it once in place?  I have no idea.  I mean really, it would not surprise me if the above EPS either verified as a simple cold front or turned into a monster trough.  If it is just a cold front...I think the trough dumps back West and resets quickly.  If it really amplifies, it is possible that the ridge in the West holds.  Nothing would surprise me right now.  This weather pattern has not played nice all winter, and again, I don't expect it to now.  But we really need a break from the ongoing waves of rain....Bermuda high or eastern trough acceptable.  Just give us some relief.

[Carvers Gap]

That is an active watch box....Remember that boring weather pattern from September and October???

[Holston_River_Rambler]

SOI trying to find the center of the earth at -43.

Last 3 runs of the EPS from Sun Feb 24 - Sun March 3. Seems to be strengthening and pushing east the AK ridge as well as extending the troughing in the east ever so slightly more.

 

Going to be interesting to see what happens to NWP once those twin cyclones in the Pacific run their courses. I'm sure with OLR measurements, having them there makes it look like the MJO is stuck and maybe it really is. 

 

 

 

[TellicoWx]

19 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Pattern is dry...but here is the d10-15 850 temp look on the EPS.  2m temps have about the same setup.  If the STJ can hold on just a bit, that is a very good look.  Either way, a pattern reversal or relaxation is now at d10(not the d14-15 deal where it holds an does not move forward).  At worst, we dry out.  At best, systems ride the boundary from the southwest to NE...and take the low road.

Lol...get your wish Carver on 12z GFS LR..cold in place and keeps southern road open for buisness.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The EPS actually likes my idea from banter:

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

That was not a boring 12z suite today...too bad the interesting wx is in the d7-10 range.  Is that a 1061 hp approaching Montana around d9ish?  Add in a double barrel coastal...fun to watch.  

[Carvers Gap]

You know it may not come to pass...but seeing a modeled 1061 hp is something to behold.  The 0z run had a similar hp as well...I just didn't catch it.  Waaaay out there, but worth a share.  And yes, there is a storm riding that boundary.  Was a double barrel feature, but if it were to consolidate....doubt the details are even close to being correct.  However, this appears to be our window(narrow but it is what it is).  If we were talking movie themes....Return of the Jedi if we finally see a spring storm of worth...or if it there is a lot of hype and build-up but in the end the storm stinks(we have great snow graphics but the story/m fizzles)...The Last Jedi.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Should be plenty of snowpack over Yukon and BC to help a nice high at least develop, with all the storms and troughs rolling through. 

 

 

Come to think of it these midwest storms are laying down a nice carpet of snow too (though not too sure I buy the 4-6 over W NC right now. 

Roger Smith (who I've been watching more after you pointed out his winter forecast for me Carvers) had something to say about March:

 He likes the chance from a couple of front end thumps, but favors a "fat boy" to potentially form further east and ride up the coast. 

Maybe like a fat brown trout at sunset. 

[Carvers Gap]

I am not sure how legit the window is, but it looks good today at this moment.  We have seen that d7-10 window verify poorly this winter.  For better or worse, the Feb 28-Mar2 window may be our best shot.  I would add that if the Euro operational is correct, that window might be a little longer if that big high rolls eastward.  Maybe one last window of a storm attacking the cold as it slides across.  I think what eventually happens with no blocking in the Atlantic is that the cold slides through and lifts out...and the ridge might re-establish in the East(edit).  At this point it appears that the eastern ridge relaxes and the cold in the West rushes east during the aforementioned timeframe and right after.  I can see an outside shot of the trough buckling and reloading as modeling has had a terrible time of missing pattern switches this winter.  But the likely scenario is the trough re-establishes by mid-month in the West.  I think someone noted on the MA, that the door for spring is wide open after that cold leaves.  That said, has the weather pattern done anything as expected(speaking of LR verification) recently...well, besides rain?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Strangely, EPS still likes the 3/4 - 5 window even more than the 3/2 window the Op is advertising. For the past couple of days it has been dead set on a similar set up March 4 -5. At this point I guess I basically expect it to change, but then again, have we had a set up like this modeled yet all winter? 

1. MJO progression--check (last time it made it to phases 2 - 3 at any amplitude was December; now GFS and Euro suites show it getting there again)

2. giganto EPO ridge--check (I feel like this has always been just a bit further west and the trend at closer leads has been to push east with time). One thing that is extra interesting about that ridge is that it is a cut off. Those, whether anticyclones or cyclones are usually not well modeled. How does it play out once it develops?

3. cold air across western/ northern Canada to be displaced south--check (all that troughiness and snow out that way has to be good for something; no giant PV lobe bringing it to suppress this time) I also suppose having a 1050/ 60 high modeled is a good thing if you want the actual feature to be less suppressive, but then again maybe we want a 1050+ in March? 

4. 50/50 low--check

Several EPS members show suppression as a worry for snow. Heck yesterday one even had significant snow to the Gulf coast. I'll take that bet in March. If I lose at least it's dry. 

I guess in other words synoptically it's a good look, or as you said as good as one can ask for at a long lead.  As always this winter, can we get it closer, or does it go poof? Again I think some things are different this time around the block, but at this point nothing would surprise me. Maybe that EPO ridge helps diminish the N. stream Ninaish component out for a bit and helps models? It truly was weird to have that Dec storm at least consistently in the ball park for such a long time and have almost nothing else (except maybe this rainy week) modeled as consistently. 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Lastly...sorry for hogging the spec thread today.  I think one potential "threat" that the cold pattern would present is high elevation snows followed by a few days of cold that won't let it melt.   Then, the ridge comes back.  My concern would then be heavy rain from a squall line or frontal boundary on a snowpack at about 4,500'.  Several bridges to cross before that is a concern, but a couple of us have kicked that scenario around recently.  With streams running very full, this promises to be a muddy, sloppy early spring.  I have no expectation that my favorite mountain trout creeks are going to be fishable very often during March and April.  Those are normally great months BTW for fishing our area streams - unlikely this year.  This winter exemplifies my wariness of El Nino winters.  They are not all bad...but when they are duds they are duds.  Rain, lack of sun, highs perpetually in the 50s, lows in the 30s/40s, big winter events with long waits in between(very few nickel and dime events), and then it continues into early spring.  If El Nino continues into summer, we might at least dodge the extreme heat of La Nina summers.  

[Carvers Gap]

 

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Strangely, EPS still likes the 3/4 - 5 window even more than the 3/2 window the Op is advertising. For the past couple of days it has been dead set on a similar set up March 4 -5. At this point I guess I basically expect it to change, but then again, have we had a set up like this modeled yet all winter? 

1. MJO progression--check (last time it made it to phases 2 - 3 at any amplitude was December; now GFS and Euro suites show it getting there again)

2. giganto EPO ridge--check (I feel like this has always been just a bit further west and the trend at closer leads has been to push east with time). One thing that is extra interesting about that ridge is that it is a cut off. Those, whether anticyclones or cyclones are usually not well modeled. How does it play out once it develops?

3. cold air across western/ northern Canada to be displaced south--check (all that troughiness and snow out that way has to be good for something; no giant PV lobe bringing it to suppress this time) I also suppose having a 1050/ 60 high modeled is a good thing if you want the actual feature to be less suppressive, but then again maybe we want a 1050+ in March? 

4. 50/50 low--check

Several EPS members show suppression as a worry for snow. Heck yesterday one even had significant snow to the Gulf coast. I'll take that bet in March. If I lose at least it's dry. 

I guess in other words synoptically it's a good look, or as you said as good as one can ask for at a long lead.  As always this winter, can we get it closer, or does it go poof? Again I think some things are different this time around the block, but at this point nothing would surprise me. Maybe that EPO ridge helps diminish the N. stream Ninaish component out for a bit and helps models? It truly was weird to have that Dec storm at least consistently in the ball park for such a long time and have almost nothing else (except maybe this rainy week) modeled as consistently. 

I wonder if the EPS is slower because it has a few members slowing it down or if it is seeing a second window.  As we get closer, those individuals should begin to align with one camp or another.  It is possible that a second window exists as that big high slides across(or perhaps more like a continuation of the Feb28-Mar2 window).  So, there may be another system 2-3 days later underneath or right behind the departing cold...just a guess.  That might be what the EPS is keying on...something attacking the cold.  It will be interesting to see if those big highs verify.  It is not often that those show-up on modeling...with a signal that strong it is likely seeing something.  During late December last winter, the models were spitting out big highs.  If those big highs are on modeling tomorrow morning, I will have more than passing interest.  1050+ highs will have to be reckoned with.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Kind of wondering the same thing, (i.e. is it one window it's actually seeing?).  It does seem to see both, but a stronger MSLP, 500 mb, and QPF signal for the second as of now.  Like you, the high is what I want at this point. Either way we win. Dry or snowy if something that big aims at us.  And even if snowy, a high that big would allow for some cold and only gradual melting and subsequently draining of lakes to allow them to better deal with the QPF after the melt. We've got the cut off EPO ridge (still slightly shifting from run to run) inside 6 days now, so there's that at least, and that helps cut off the endless nightmare of shortwaves ejecting out of the SW.

I also like the high's trajectory as currently modeled on the Euro. Instead of being something a disturbance attacks (Miller B), it's something that a shortwave could ride along side it as it drops in. Could all end up being one storm, if, as is usual, this all gets pushed back a day or two. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Stolen from the MA. And why not consider it after the winter we've had?

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

CPC outlooks for d6-10 and 8-14 look cold.  Brave post, Holston.  LOL.  Indeed, the CPC analog package for d8-14 does have a KU storm.  While I don't think we see a storm like that('93) again in our lifetime, I don't consider a KU analog showing up to be insignificant.  Now, I am not calling for a big system like that...but sometimes when analogs show up for big storms, it means the pattern might be reflective of an atmospheric state that produced that said storm.  Again, I want to see if those big highs are still on future runs.  We have all been burned this winter by nice looks that just withered as they approached.  For all we know, this may verify as a frontal passage or their may be a storm that rides the Arctic boundary - that is what makes tracking late season potential interesting.  Very feast or famine stuff.  I don't get overly invested in these spring snow.  It is always a bonus.

As for the fly fishing reference being compared to late season El Nino patterns...Indeed the largest trout that I ever caught was in the dark of the evening.  I bent the metal tape measure so that I knew how long it was.  It was the last cast of the night.  I could not see my fly, but I saw a dimple rise in the moonlight(timed it with where I thought my fly should be) and lifted the rod.  It was a hog.  Most evenings don't work out that well...but sometimes, once in a blue moon, they do.  The great thing about fishing when compared to weather...I do have some control of the fishing experience.  The weather...not so much.  LOL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Indeed, it is only one mention in the list and likely not to happen, but I wonder how often that one pops up? Many, but certainly not all of those dates did feature an eastern Gulf low in the NCEP reanalysis. Some of the dates looked ok and some looked totally unimpressive. I'd say averaged out there is something like  40 - 50% shot at a Gulf low given the CPC's projection and maybe add a few percentages onto that given what the models are currently showing. Though this year maybe we take away a percentage if a model shows it past 3 days, lol? 

 

[TellicoWx]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Lastly...sorry for hogging the spec thread today.  I think one potential "threat" that the cold pattern would present is high elevation snows followed by a few days of cold that won't let it melt.   Then, the ridge comes back.  My concern would then be heavy rain from a squall line or frontal boundary on a snowpack at about 4,500'.  Several bridges to cross before that is a concern, but a couple of us have kicked that scenario around recently.  With streams running very full, this promises to be a muddy, sloppy early spring.  I have no expectation that my favorite mountain trout creeks are going to be fishable very often during March and April.  Those are normally great months BTW for fishing our area streams - unlikely this year.  This winter exemplifies my wariness of El Nino winters.  They are not all bad...but when they are duds they are duds.  Rain, lack of sun, highs perpetually in the 50s, lows in the 30s/40s, big winter events with long waits in between(very few nickel and dime events), and then it continues into early spring.  If El Nino continues into summer, we might at least dodge the extreme heat of La Nina summers.  

If El Nino continues into summer, I may have some ocean front property here lol...crazy precip on the 45 day for SE TN.

[John1122]

Take it with a boulder of salt, but the Euro and GFS both have pretty significant winter storms in the day 9-10 timeframe for a large part of the area.  For now they are reeling in what was at day 12-13.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS has indeed been so consistent.  One last trip trough the gonad jabber, or bookend storm?

 

  

 

I guess at least the high forming in NW territories is getting even closer. Perhaps the most dangerous part of this as it stands now is the 50/50. Nothing to hold it there. Gotta get that just right for confluence to get the high where we want it.  I still like the idea of a high coming in from that area to help and potential storm be more of a Miller A than B. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Holston with the legendary quote.  Pretty much an accurate summation of our storm window.

[TellicoWx]

Still looks like a good 2 week drying out, before a return to a more active/wetter pattern the second week of March on per the weeklies.

[Wurbus]

12z Euro had something for next Sunday/Monday. Still a ways to go and suppression might be a concern. Although, if it is suppressed, at least we will be dry.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The EPS means still look pretty good at range for for that window too. 

 

[TellicoWx]

6z GFS snow mean pretty much sums up winter here lol...donut hole for TN lol

[TellicoWx]

GEFS is further north in the gulf, while EPS is more suppressed

[Wurbus]

12 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

6z GFS snow mean pretty much sums up winter here lol...donut hole for TN lol 

Yeah......Just my opinion, but I have a feeling that next week's system is going to get suppressed.

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Yeah......Just my opinion, but I have a feeling that next week's system is going to get suppressed.

I love snow, but honestly I kinda hope it does. With our river system so stressed right now, the last thing we need is the mountains getting hammered with snow and then flipping back to an above avg precip mode like the long range is suggesting for the second 2/3 March.

[Wurbus]

17 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

I love snow, but honestly I kinda hope it does. With our river system so stressed right now, the last thing we need is the mountains getting hammered with snow and then flipping back to an above avg precip mode like the long range is suggesting for the second 2/3 March.

Oh, I totally agree. Might be the one time I'm ever rooting for suppression!