mimillman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 4:49 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: I’d take this NAM run in a heartbeat. Freshen things up a bit. Expand 9z SREF mean is just under 2” at ORD...with 11 members over that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 5:01 PM, mimillman said: 9z SREF mean is just under 2” at ORD...with 11 members over that Expand Set at the default 10:1 ratio or did you change it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 5:05 PM, CoalCityWxMan said: Set at the default 10:1 ratio or did you change it? Expand Default 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 5:21 PM, mimillman said: Default 10:1 Expand Sorry this was actually adjusted for ratios. 15z SREF mean comes in closer to 2.25” with once again most members above the mean. Has the potential to be a low end advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 NAM keeping hope alive for one more clipper before pattern change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 2:41 AM, Baum said: NAM keeping hope alive for one more clipper before pattern change.... Expand 00z GFS looks good for a widespread 1-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 4:00 AM, mimillman said: 00z GFS looks good for a widespread 1-3” Expand 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 4:03 AM, Chicago Storm said: 2-4" Expand Small details, maybe I should have said 1-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Seriously though, setting up for a mess on the roads given the circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Noticed the clipper has been inching north slowly run to run, which would make sense with the PV being a bit further north run to run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 And I have possible t storms with a high near 60 for this weekend into Monday. Crazy turnaround according to one local tv met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 NAM continues to look good for a widespread 2-4” event Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 2:24 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM continues to look good for a widespread 2-4” event Thursday Expand SREF mean a solid 3” at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 ORD needs 4.1" tomorrow to put this January into the top 10 snowiest. Sitting at 17.4" thru yesterday. Of course it depends if it all falls before the clock strikes midnight tomorrow...and they do really well. Either way, might be a stretch, but not impossible... 1) 42.5" in 1918 2) 40.4" in 1979 3) 33.7" in 2014 4) 32.3" in 1978 5) 29.6" in 1999 6) 28.9" in 1967 7) 27.8" in 2005 8) 26.7" in 1886 9) 24.7" in 1939 10) 21.5" in 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Look locked into a 2-4” event tomorrow.I’ll go 3.0” ORD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just gonna go with 1-3" for here/QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 5:04 PM, Chicago Storm said: Look locked into a 2-4” event tomorrow. I’ll go 3.0” ORD. . Expand I’ll go 2.2” given recent trends south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like a few inches here. Temp possibly still below zero at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 4.1" same call as the hybrid clipper which pretty much verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm big doggin' for 5-6 here even though it'll be gone in 48 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 11:05 PM, Jackstraw said: I'm big doggin' for 5-6 here even though it'll be gone in 48 hours lol. Expand You might get that at 40 or 45:1. I'll go with 3.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 8:59 PM, mimillman said: I’ll go 2.2” given recent trends south Expand This will likely bust high given trends south/drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 1:46 AM, mimillman said: This will likely bust high given trends south/drier Expand Decent shot you bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Thinking of 3 inches of snow here just ne of Indpls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 2:13 AM, Indystorm said: Thinking of 3 inches of snow here just ne of Indpls. Expand NAM is giving you over 2" at 10:1. With temps in single digits at onset, you should fluff up to at least 4". Of course, by the time you get out to measure it Friday morning compaction may already be occurring as temps moderate. Whatever the amount, a nice little caboose to the clipper train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 1:48 AM, Chicago Storm said: Decent shot you bust low. Expand Nah gonna bust high on this one. Thing has dried out a lot since this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 4:12 AM, mimillman said: Nah gonna bust high on this one. Thing has dried out a lot since this AM Expand Little dryer, a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 1:48 AM, Chicago Storm said: Decent shot you bust low. Expand Agreed. Not even bothering with the models on this. Most of these smaller clippers have overperformed in this regime. LOT pretty much a 1-4 incher from NE to SW which seems prudent. I'll stick with my high end call of 4.1" to show that I'm a half glass full kind of person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 12z NAMs slashing QPF/snow here, so gonna make a call of 1-3" for IKK. Final. Will cap off a pretty decent clipper train for here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 2:20 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z NAMs slashing QPF/snow here, so gonna make a call of 1-3" for IKK. Final. Will cap off a pretty decent clipper train for here though. Expand I just noticed those 12zs. I'm still going with an overperforming, fluff factored 3.2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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