Frog Town Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, Baum said: Just going to say we may need a seperate thread for the Monday potential as it stands out from these other smaller events... Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Smelt it dealt it! Get on it, dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Things trending better for a 0.5-2" event across the area tomorrow/tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 37 minutes ago, hlcater said: With the bigger clipper and the arctic outbreak next week, I haven't seen too much talk about the clipper tomorrow. Could drop a sneaky 1-2" across much of E IA and N IL. Hardly as noteworthy as whats up ahead, but the unique thing this system has going for it is the extremely cold air it has to work with. Could be looking at ratios of 20-25:1. Snow in the single digits, THAT's winter. Also noting the strange looking DGZ on this sounding. Since the surface layer is a part of the -12 to -18c zone, it's technically in the DGZ? Though this could be the algorithm messing up, as a DGZ from 800 to 700mb seems more probable. I've seen model soundings like that before in the mountains out west and in Alaska. Don't think Ive seen it around here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 39 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Smelt it dealt it! Get on it, dude! done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Snowing at a decent clip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Snowing at a decent clip here. Here too. Really came down for a time. Roads went to hell quickly. Hoping to squeeze out 1-2" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Here too. Really came down for a time. Roads went to hell quickly. Hoping to squeeze out 1-2" tomorrow. Yeah. Same. 1-2” looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Chambana said: Yeah. Same. 1-2” looks good. Yep, and have hit the point where even nusciance snow makes the roads go to hell in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I think if trends hold tomorrow could be a sneaky disaster commute in the Chicago area. Bitterly cold temps and road treatments don't mix and fluffy arctic snow is already pretty slick. If today's dendrites are a sign of what tomorrow may be like, 20-25:1 ratios could fluff up to 1-3", maybe even a bit higher in spots. Wouldn't be surprised if a WWA is issued considering the timing coinciding with the PM commute.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I think if trends hold tomorrow could be a sneaky disaster commute in the Chicago area. Bitterly cold temps and road treatments don't mix and fluffy arctic snow is already pretty slick. If today's dendrites are a sign of what tomorrow may be like, 20-25:1 ratios could fluff up to 1-3", maybe even a bit higher in spots. Wouldn't be surprised if a WWA is issued considering the timing coinciding with the PM commute. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk thought the same thing based on today's results. That's why I've always loved these clipper/northwest flow regimes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Baum said: thought the same thing based on today's results. That's why I've always loved these clipper/northwest flow regimes.. This high ratio stuff is always fun, simply because it looks awesome. Classic winter as those puffballs are falling. Just the couple hours of flurries/-sn was great for the winter lovers mood today. As RC mentioned, any light snow is going to accumulate effectively. A burst of moderate snow over the metro during the rush will be enough to paralyze traffic. A lot of the country roads out here are already snow covered due to blowing/drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 I'm already thinking about what kind of hellish conditions the roads may be in after Monday. I remember in January 2014 there was that layer of ice/snow that just couldn't be removed from the roads... even main roads. Bottom line, get it cleaned up quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Things trending better for a 0.5-2" event across the area tomorrow/tomorrow evening. Looking forward to a nice fluffy inch with this.. agree that this is not behind advertised more. May catch people off guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm already thinking about what kind of hellish conditions the roads may be in after Monday. I remember in January 2014 there was that layer of ice/snow that just couldn't be removed from the roads... even main roads. Bottom line, get it cleaned up quickly! got that already after that glaze of ice and than an inch or so of snow in these parts...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I don't buy the 00z NAM for tomorrow. Looks like classic NAM dry air issues with the unrealistic splotches of qpf/snow only where the model thinks saturation is sufficient. SREF only had one member with no measurable snow at ORD. Edit: Referring to 00z NAM12. 3km NAM looks much more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 0.4" at ORD and 0.2" here with the frontal passage today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like a DAB at best for here with today’s snow. Was hoping for a little uptick, but not seeing it. Should be some decent mood snows at the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just 0.1" of snow last night with the frontal passage and Lake effect while here and DTW. Some heavier bands to my North. What little snow is left after the rain and warmth of Wednesday is now frozen solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like a DAB at best for here with today’s snow. Was hoping for a little uptick, but not seeing it. Should be some decent mood snows at the least...Rough first winter for me down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like a DAB at best for here with today’s snow. Was hoping for a little uptick, but not seeing it. Should be some decent mood snows at the least...What's your definition of DAB? Looks like 1-2" there, or right around 2" if you go by latest HRRR/RAP and Euro and GEMs. Toss the NAMs. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Picked up about 12-14" since last night, NWL snow belts got hammered pretty good. Looks like another 4-6" today. Winter has finally arrived albeit 2 months late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 What's your definition of DAB? Looks like 1-2" there, or right around 2" if you go by latest HRRR/RAP and Euro and GEMs. Toss the NAMs. Sent from my SM-G965U using TapatalkThinking an inch or so in the I-88 corridor?Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Thinking an inch or so in the I-88 corridor?Sent from my SM-G960U using TapatalkI’d agree with that.Then 1-3” near and south of I-80.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 clipper today then another tomorrow slightly weaker and slightly more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Fluffy flurries have started flying here. Should pick up over the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1112 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2019 UPDATE 1112 AM CST DIFFERENTIAL WATER VAPOR RGB IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS HAS A 1018MB LOW NEAR KFSD WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF ILX AND DVN BOTH WERE EXTREMELY DRY WITH PWATS OF BARELY 0.05" WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. HOWEVER, CONTINUED AND STRENGTHENING ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPENING OF THE SATURATION IN THE COLUMN AND EVENTUALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BIGGEST CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO NUDGE THE AXIS OF HIGHER (ALBEIT STILL VERY LIGHT QPF) FARTHER NORTH. GOING FORECAST USED SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE TO 20:1 AND STUCK WITH THAT RANGE THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THE ASCENT IN THE BETTER DGZ IS FAIRLY WEAK AND THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER IS BARELY WITHIN THE PRIME DGZ RANGE. THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SLRS COULD END UP LOWER, PERHAPS 15:1 OR LESS IF THE DOMINANT FLAKE TYPE IS MORE NEEDLE AND CRYSTALS. WITH THE HIGHER QPF MOVED NORTH A BIT, THE 1-2" AMOUNTS NOW EXTEND UP TO OR JUST A BIT NORTH OF I-80. DEPENDING ON FLAKE SIZE AND SUBSEQUENT SLR, COULD END UP WITH MAX AMOUNTS CLOSER TO OR JUST BELOW AN INCH. REGARDLESS OF SNOWFALL IS A HALF INCH OR 2 INCHES, THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WON'T VARY MUCH. THE BITTER COLD AIR MASS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO IMMEDIATELY STICK ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND THE VERY COLD TEMPS COULD ALSO MAKE CHEMICAL TREATMENTS ON ROADS LESS EFFECTIVE. SO MAIN FORECAST MESSAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING RUSH HOUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88/I-290. - IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 ...and we're off with full blown steady light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Think we'll get at least 1" and maybe a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Snowing at -2 in DKB. Not sure I’ve seen that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 looks like some moderate bursts developing SAVANNA* SNOW 0 -6 78 SE3 30.18F VSB 1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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