SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 hours ago, cyclone77 said: If the new Euro is correct we'd be looking at potential snow depth records around here, as there's already a good 8-12" (counting tonight's snows) on the ground. ...Camera pans, man sitting next to roaring fireplace smoking a pipe, peering over his snow covered yard... “We had a few rough years, but that’s in the past now.” (Cyclone pats the snow magnet he secured during a dangerous trek to Mt Geos) “Snow depth record, here we come” (cranks magnet to 11) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Gfs and euro have like flip flopped. Lol. Now gfs is wanting to track this system like I80 north. IMO I think a further south track is more likely given the strong arctic push behind this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 All I know is that Monday's clipper and the subsequent arctic outbreak have the potential to kick ass if either is as strong as currently shown to be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Clipper train..per GFS car A- Friday 1-3 central IL Car B-Sunday- a weak system out ahead of the big one- 1-2 NE IL inch maybe Car c- the big one Monday/tuesday 6-10 somewhere Car D- thursday OH river area 3-5 Caboose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: I would put D on hold. CMC has that car (D) weaker and more north but more cars diving down after that hits northern IL hard with Car C (perhaps merges car B with it as a long WAA event or has a seperate CAR in MO SAT??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Don't forget the engine tomorrow, which is the arctic front. looks to bring a DAB-.5" to areas east of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 A lot of kinks to work out but this Monday system looks real. Euro with another doozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Def not like that dream run last night. But knew that was a long shot. Lol. It def has come north. I80 special. Hoping for a southward trend as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, madwx said: Don't forget the engine tomorrow, which is the arctic front. looks to bring a DAB-.5" to areas east of the Mississippi Choo choo, mother****.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 LOT goes with categorical pops for snow 4-5 days out for Monday hybrid clipper. Agressive. Did that with last weekends event and it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Baum said: LOT goes with categorical pops for snow 4-5 days out for Monday hybrid clipper. Agressive. Did that with last weekends event and it worked out. DVN is already doing categorical as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: DVN is already doing categorical as well. that's in Cyclone's area...makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Should be an interesting afternoon AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 From LOT: “The timeframe of highest concern for potentially significant (6"+) snow accumulations is Sunday night through Monday. Models and ensembles are in unusually good agreement this far out in a strong clipper/Pacific hybrid type system affecting the region. This system will have a very impressive thermal gradient/baroclinic zone to work with, along with possibly up to 150-200% of typical PWAT for late January, also eye-opening considering the cold antecedent air mass. Ultimately the track of the system will dictate who gets how much snow, but felt comfortable with the categorical PoPs in blended guidance given strong guidance agreement. A somewhat northward displaced track could even introduce p-type concerns into portions of the area considering aforementioned thermal gradient over the region, with a low track over northern IL favoring Wisconsin for highest snowfall. It also appears that it will become windy/breezy with the snow, so blowing/drifting snow could become an issue. We will certainly be watching this period closely. Finally, in the wake of the potential Sunday night-Monday snow event, the concern is what could be a brutally cold shot of Arctic air in the middle of next work week. While the GFS suite of guidance is cold, the ECMWF/ensemble suite is particularly concerning for extreme/record cold. To highlight this, the ensemble mean of 51 member European ensemble is indicating 850 mb temperature anomalies of 20+ degrees Celsius below normal next Wednesday. If a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex can move over the region as shown on the 12z operational ECMWF, that would help maximize how cold it gets. Still plenty of time for changes in this period, but even less cold GFS suite would favor some type of wind chill headlines next Tuesday night through Wednesday night.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 DTX has categorical pops for snow Monday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: ...Camera pans, man sitting next to roaring fireplace smoking a pipe, peering over his snow covered yard... “We had a few rough years, but that’s in the past now.” (Cyclone pats the snow magnet he secured during a dangerous trek to Mt Geos) “Snow depth record, here we come” (cranks magnet to 11) Haha! Actually it was a black ops mission to Detroit to steal it from Josh, who had previously stolen it from Mt. Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Buffalo AFD mentions that this system could be rain for WNY and the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 17 hours ago, cyclone77 said: If the new Euro is correct we'd be looking at potential snow depth records around here, as there's already a good 8-12" (counting tonight's snows) on the ground. Happy for ya! Our snow pack got annihilated today. Just hoping we can cash in on a few inches over the next week to cover up this frozen muck lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Haha! Actually it was a black ops mission to Detroit to steal it from Josh, who had previously stolen it from Mt. Geos. It is NOT appreciated lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Happy for ya! Our snow pack got annihilated today. Just hoping we can cash in on a few inches over the next week to cover up this frozen muck lol. Sigh. As did ours. Lost most of it late in the day, every time there's a day like this I always hope we will lose less than we do. Calling the average snow depth now 1". Plenty of spots have more, but there are also bare spots. Once everything continues to freeze up at least it will resemble Winter over the complete bare ground that we had for most of December through mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 after the almost 2" of slush and what we had before and then the melting, its now below freezing. Onward to Monday. It looks good for me right now, but I hate to be looking good this far out. smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I’m looking forward to the clipper time. That said I feel like my location is a bit far west for many of these events but we have gotten our lucky share of snow recently so the dustings we get will still by nice for mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I feel pretty good about this one for the Chicago metro. A bit unnerving the northern shifts in this afternoons guidance, but as we saw with the last two systems, south trend inside 72 hours is the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: I feel pretty good about this one for the Chicago metro. A bit unnerving the northern shifts in this afternoons guidance, but as we saw with the last two systems, south trend inside 72 hours is the way to go I concur. Besides, the northward shift isn't universal (right? lol). IIRC, the FV3 was actually to our south with the heaviest snow. I think we're looking as good as any city for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Doesn't look very typical to me (morning of 28th), at any level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Polar context: which will surely bring down more frigid air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, whoosh said: Doesn't look very typical to me (morning of 28th), at any level. don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 GFS even farther north with car C... for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Yea we are a long ways from knowing where this is going to track. Gfs being gfs bouncing all over. I feel I80 north will be the jackpot for this. Just a hunch. But I seen time and time again where these trend south in time but this isn't solely a clipper and more of a hybrid so hard to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea we are a long ways from knowing where this is going to track. Gfs being gfs bouncing all over. I feel I80 north will be the jackpot for this. Just a hunch. But I seen time and time again where these trend south in time but this isn't solely a clipper and more of a hybrid so hard to say CMC remains steadfast south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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