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Late January-Early February Clipper Train


Hoosier

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Good model agreement on an active regime with several clipper systems.  This starts on Thursday with one moving through the Lakes.  Signals for a beefier system Sun-Mon with more action beyond.  

After such a bad start to met winter, the rally cap is on.  

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Definitely a big return to colder temperatures after this brief thaw, but I'm just not buying into this hype train yet of clippers. I'm thinking the GTA will be lucky to average about 1-2" a week in this cold pattern which is an improvement over the first half of met winter, but half inch clippers every 3 days doesn't do the same justice in February as it does in December. 

Essentially this looks like a cold boring pattern with not even headline worthy clippers (for the northern non lake effect regions)

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Oooh.  00z Euro also south to join the GFS/FV3/UK.... and it's strong, too.  This could be pretty fun if it pans out like the latest runs.

Damn you beat me to it! Lol. 0z euro is wagons south! Huge change from where it was. Looks like a good spread the wealth system to. It is even further south with low track than 0z gfs

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Oh I am not getting excited just yet, this is maximizing the potential. What is key though is that this system has been on the models now for at least 3 days in this time period. It is definitely something to watch

 

Agreed. Both gfs and euro are showing a wound up system with ample moisture as it is a hybrid with some Pacific moisture. Timing remarkably similar as well. Track and strength will be the main things to watch in the coming days

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4 hours ago, Stebo said:

Oh I am not getting excited just yet, this is maximizing the potential. What is key though is that this system has been on the models now for at least 3 days in this time period. It is definitely something to watch

 

 Last weekends system in some shape or form was on the models for well over a week. Obviously track, intensity, degree of phasing, basically all details varied, but the consistency of something being there was unwavering for well over a week.

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