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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


Ji

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:
28 minutes ago, nj2va said:
Wow, 18z GFS is a pretty weenie run.  Multiple shots at frozen.  

Huh? It was a disaster

I don't know WTF I was looking at on my phone but now that I'm on my computer, I don't see the same thing.  I wouldn't call it a disaster but its not a weenie run.  30th looked fine to me.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I don't know WTF I was looking at on my phone but now that I'm on my computer, I don't see the same thing.  I wouldn't call it a disaster but its not a weenie run.  30th looked fine to me.

Sometimes the weenie in our heads just overwhelms reality..it happens

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The 1800 run of the GFS is showing a decently organized Clipper system diving southeast Monday night and then coming back around the bend northeast of Virginia as a small but compact low pressure system.  On that track, it would undoubtedly be all snow and another shot of cold air will be on it's heels.  As of now, it doesn't look like a large area of precipitation and the model has it moving pretty fast as most Clippers do.  So, maybe a quick shot of snow Tuesday morning into the evening hours and then cold.  

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Just now, Danajames said:

The 1800 run of the GFS is showing a decently organized Clipper system diving southeast Monday night and then coming back around the bend northeast of Virginia as a small but compact low pressure system.  On that track, it would undoubtedly be all snow and another shot of cold air will be on it's heels.  As of now, it doesn't look like a large area of precipitation and the model has it moving pretty fast as most Clippers do.  So, maybe a quick shot of snow Tuesday morning into the evening hours and then cold.  

Need another 100 mile dig.  Not impossible a week out. 

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The odds of ANY model nailing a storm that's over 10 days out is extremely low.  Not saying it hasn't happened but it's rare.  I usually stick with a 5 day window and anything longer than that borders on high comedy.  Sometimes models can pick up on long term pattern shifts but individual storms?  Nah...not going to bite on those.   Not sure when this long range silliness started but it's basically useless other than to entertain people with pure fiction. 

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