January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

[Danajames]

Both the midnight and 0600 run of the GFS show nothing for the weekend but a chance at a quick hit of snow next Tues-Wed. as a Clipper system swings by and tries to transition a low off the coast.  If all it's going to do is rain, I'd rather it just be dry but at least there's a chance early next week for some snow.  We'll see if it stays on the model later in the week. 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

its really the only thing i saw positive...and the 00z ukmet. 

Thank you. For finding a positive. 

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

its really the only thing i saw positive...and the 00z ukmet. 

So statistically speaking the two highest rated models? 

[midatlanticweather]

Deb moment here - we are in the middle of the statistically BEST time of the year to get snow and the models are in chaos.. but not trending positive. If we cannot get a good storm this period, then sun angle, less exciting events are all we will have left (ya.. I am being pessimistic here, and sun angle is the ability for snow to stay on the ground! I still have huge glaciers littering my landscape) - the forever just out of reach -NAO and great setups that never materialize are depressing! I get it that we usually get snow with flukes and luck, but this year is becoming very depressing! Due to the chaos, though, maybe things are just not showing their hand yet.. but honestly, when will they? Yes, I have had close to 15 inches of snow this season, but I was expecting the 150 to 200% snows that seemed possible! LOL! We are not done yet, but delays are going to rob us a lot of the best winter! Also, I have to be out of the area the last week of February - that would be very bad news if we get something significant when I cannot be here! 

OK - Deb downer moment over!

 

[psuhoffman]

I’ve remained more focused on the “pattern” and perhaps more frustrated than some about the degradation of blocking because I have a hunch that we are unlikely to get a flush hit until that changes. We have seen this game before with epo driven cold where from range it looks snowy only to see the baroclinic zone shift north west.  Our best chance would be early next week when the trough axis seems at its furthest east point but even then it’s a short window and when a storm does develop even during that window some guidance suggests it could be rain.  

The epo ridge is centered too far west to help absent any Atlantic help. Rare years when an epo pattern worked it was centered in western Canada not Alaska. Also if you look at examples like 2003, 2014, and 2015 the tpv elongated west to east not north to south and was situated in a way that acted to suppress the flow. That’s not true this time.   

Something has to change or storms will continue to cut then we get cold behind them. It could be the tpv but there are no signs of that either. It could be the NAO but every time it approaches it evaporates. Hopefully the flip really happens in Feb because I have doubts this pattern will work absent blocking or a change in tpv orientation. I guess the good news is both those things aren’t predicted well at range. 

[usedtobe]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve remained more focused on the “pattern” and perhaps more frustrated than some about the degradation of blocking because I have a hunch that we are unlikely to get a flush hit until that changes. We have seen this game before with epo driven cold where from range it looks snowy only to see the baroclinic zone shift north west.  Our best change would be early next week when the trough axis seems at its furthest east point but even then it’s a short window and when a storm does develop even during that window some guidance suggests it could be rain.  

The epo ridge is centered too far west to help absent any Atlantic help. Rare years when an epo pattern worked it was centered in western Canada not Alaska. Also if you look at examples like 2003, 2015, and 2015 the tpv elongated west to east not north to south and was situated in a way that acted to suppress the flow. That’s not true this time.   

Something has to change or storms will continue to cut then we get cold behind them. It could be the tpv but there are no signs of that either. It could be the NAO but every time it approaches it evaporates. Hopefully the flip really happens in Feb because I have doubts this pattern will work absent blocking or a change in tpv orientation. I guess the good news is both those things aren’t predicted well at range. 

Agree, the ridge the Pacific is too far west and then we get a big vortex /;negative anomaly over AK so we might even lose the cold air for a bit down the road.  Until then, looks like cold amd dry, or warm and wet when the cutters track to the west.  Something does need to change. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Agree, the ridge the Pacific is too far west and then we get a big vortex /;negative anomaly over AK so we might even lose the cold air for a bit down the road.  Until then, looks like cold amd dry, or warm and wet when the cutters track to the west.  Something does need to change. 

Not what I wanted to hear but confirms my feelings. Everyone seems “ok” with the pattern but I’m becoming less optimistic every day with what I see. 

[aldie 22]

Not sure anyone is ok with the pattern but as it has been pointed out the tools used to say what said pattern is or will be have not been terribly accurate yet here we are using those same tools to predict coming doom and gloom. We obviously dont truly know and we damn sure can't change it.....sooooo

[Ji]

Not what I wanted to hear but confirms my feelings. Everyone seems “ok” with the pattern but I’m becoming less optimistic every day with what I see. 

Your more patient over the years and you fight for your pattern. But when you turn...it gets ugly lol

[Danajames]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Not what I wanted to hear but confirms my feelings. Everyone seems “ok” with the pattern but I’m becoming less optimistic every day with what I see. 

The storm track was set up in the Fall and has shown irritating consistency since.  Almost every storm wants to run up the Appalachian chain.  These patterns are very hard to break and I really have no reason to believe it's going to change.  We might catch lightning in a bottle a la the 30" monster storm in 2016 but I doubt it.  We'll have cold shots here and there but overall, I think it is what it is as they say. 

[Steve25]

I do get down when things look bleak but then I remember even a warm/rainy winter(as disgusting as it is) is better than any summer weather. Just my opinion lol. Hopefully we can get SOMETHING early next week to give us some relief from the negative vibes. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Danajames said:

The storm track was set up in the Fall and has shown irritating consistency since.  Almost every storm wants to run up the Appalachian chain.  These patterns are very hard to break and I really have no reason to believe it's going to change.  We might catch lightning in a bottle a la the 30" monster storm in 2016 but I doubt it.  We'll have cold shots here and there but overall, I think it is what it is as they say. 

Without doing a study or verifying it seems to me that we are in the midst of a dearth of the old fashioned Low in Gulf track for several years now.  Not a pattern expert by any means but I feel it is much more rare that we see any activity down there anymore and are having to rely on transferring scenarios much more often than 10-20 years ago. 

[Ji]

The storm track was set up in the Fall and has shown irritating consistency since.  Almost every storm wants to run up the Appalachian chain.  These patterns are very hard to break and I really have no reason to believe it's going to change.  We might catch lightning in a bottle a la the 30" monster storm in 2016 but I doubt it.  We'll have cold shots here and there but overall, I think it is what it is as they say. 

We have had some really good tracks this winter that didnt have cold. Mid dec comes to mind

[osfan24]

I hate the way this is all going after it was supposed to be an epic winter after such pitiful seasons of late. I'm just going to pray we fluke our way into a monster HECS like 2016 and just call it a winter and get after it again next year.

[Danajames]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Danajames said:

The storm track was set up in the Fall and has shown irritating consistency since.  Almost every storm wants to run up the Appalachian chain.  These patterns are very hard to break and I really have no reason to believe it's going to change.  We might catch lightning in a bottle a la the 30" monster storm in 2016 but I doubt it.  We'll have cold shots here and there but overall, I think it is what it is as they say. 

We have had some really good tracks this winter that didnt have cold. Mid dec comes to mind

Maybe my memory is failing me but outside of that one snowstorm down south that never made it up this far north, most of the lows are tracking west of here.  Once a pattern sets up, it's hard to break.  After 70+" of precipitation in 2018, I'd rather it just be dry if it's not going to snow. 

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, Danajames said:

The storm track was set up in the Fall and has shown irritating consistency since.  Almost every storm wants to run up the Appalachian chain.  These patterns are very hard to break and I really have no reason to believe it's going to change.  We might catch lightning in a bottle a la the 30" monster storm in 2016 but I doubt it.  We'll have cold shots here and there but overall, I think it is what it is as they say. 

We have had some really good tracks this winter that didnt have cold. Mid dec comes to mind

Yes there were 2 or 3 in december. Big time moisture laden with no cold to tap.

Now were in cold dry warm wet. December pattern if now would still yield rainers but could at least start or end as accumulating snow with higher elevations getting crushed. 

[frd]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not what I wanted to hear but confirms my feelings. Everyone seems “ok” with the pattern but I’m becoming less optimistic every day with what I see. 

Thinking and looking at the long range and everything possible, looks like we are in a muck. 

Some pros I listen to say there is " some " potential the next 10 days, but alas it may come down to a 14 day window to score in mid Feb. May get the motyher of all storms or a whiff.

Maybe there is a remarkable change in the next 72 hours and we score a big one this month. I still am interesting to follow this pattern, so challenging.   

I tell you what though @psuhoffman to me I was in bed on my smart phone and could not reply, ( too exhausted ) but the post of the over night hours was yours. 

The one about snowfall distribution , that struck a chord inside me and maybe defines the weeklies more so than the general  depiction. 

Did you also see the area of snowfall far to the East of OC, MD and VA , seen that a number of times and have seen it on other models as well.  That is just conversational but interesting, but your post was really thought provoking. 

I feel there will be a window of high potential in Feb about things improve and maybe, just maybe that gives many locals climo. Honestly too just mention the snowfall maps  from the 46 day ensembles never work out great. Still waiting on numerous areas of 20 inches they promised. As a tool maybe they are good for geo targets of high snowfall "potential ".   

   

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, usedtobe said:

Agree, the ridge the Pacific is too far west and then we get a big vortex /;negative anomaly over AK so we might even lose the cold air for a bit down the road.  Until then, looks like cold amd dry, or warm and wet when the cutters track to the west.  Something does need to change. 

Wes, someone else, a met, mentioned this as well today, That a relax, if that is what it might be called happens Feb 1 to Feb 10th , during this time you describe here, then he stated maybe the best pattern of the season from Feb 10th to the end of Feb. With a a real -NAO, and Nino ish looks , similiar to the weeklies. 

Wonder if you are going to be fishing early this year ? :-)    Then again maybe your in  a warmer local right now. 

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Not what I wanted to hear but confirms my feelings. Everyone seems “ok” with the pattern but I’m becoming less optimistic every day with what I see. 

Your more patient over the years and you fight for your pattern. But when you turn...it gets ugly lol

I am not cancelling the rest of winter.  Rather I am saying I now am very unsure where this is going and I have serious doubts.  

There is a difference between picking at insignificant little flaws in a generally good pattern (like 300 hour op runs that don't produce or close misses at range) and pointing out when the large scale pattern drivers look wrong.  I don't get all emotional over every single model run or details of ops at range.  I can also be patient when things are evolving towards what I expected or going the right direction or its early in winter.  

BUT... my current state of mind regarding the pattern isn't based on details on op runs or one one or two runs.  I started to notice trends I didn't like several days ago.  Little red flags.  And that trend has only continued.  At this point I have enough concern to feel it's worth saying so.  Doesn't mean I am convinced this is going to be a fail.  And I still hope this turns around.  The seasonal guidance still thinks it will...but they have been teasing the crap out of us since December!  Do you want me to pretend to be confident about our snow chances even when I am not?  

[Ji]

29 minutes ago, frd said:

Wes, someone else, a met, mentioned this as well today, That a relax, if that is what it might be called happens Feb 1 to Feb 10th , during this time you describe here, then he stated maybe the best pattern of the season from Feb 10th to the end of Feb. With a a real -NAO, and Nino ish looks , similiar to the weeklies. 

Wonder if you are going to be fishing early this year ? :-)    Then again maybe your in  a warmer local right now. 

relax? A relax from Feb 1 to 10? The whole winter has been relax. What is Feb 1-10 relaxing from?

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not cancelling the rest of winter.  Rather I am saying I now am very unsure where this is going and I have serious doubts.  

There is a difference between picking at insignificant little flaws in a generally good pattern (like 300 hour op runs that don't produce or close misses at range) and pointing out when the large scale pattern drivers look wrong.  I don't get all emotional over every single model run or details of ops at range.  I can also be patient when things are evolving towards what I expected or going the right direction or its early in winter.  

BUT... my current state of mind regarding the pattern isn't based on details on op runs or one one or two runs.  I started to notice trends I didn't like several days ago.  Little red flags.  And that trend has only continued.  At this point I have enough concern to feel it's worth saying so.  Doesn't mean I am convinced this is going to be a fail.  And I still hope this turns around.  The seasonal guidance still thinks it will...but they have been teasing the crap out of us since December!  Do you want me to pretend to be confident about our snow chances even when I am not?  

Leesburg04 makes 2-3 good points a year but the same long range guidance(10-15) that got us so excited is now showing a new look that may not even verify if past performance this winter is an indication. There is no way on jan 3, we could of seen a 12 inch snowstorm coming to DC. I think the MJO this time around wont play as as big of a factor. its in a bad phase right now but we are not in a shutout pattern. By early Feb, it should be in should be in Phase 7(probably COD) so we need another excuse. Techically, where MJO and its ampllitude... is right now we should have a big fat ridge. I bet the long range is completely different 3 days from now

[Ji]

i think whats more troubling than the brief MJO state is the SOI hardly tanked and now has been positive for 5 days in a row. Many of our great storms followed a really good SOI tanking

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Leesburg04 makes 2-3 good points a year but the same long range guidance(10-15) that got us so excited is now showing a new look that may not even verify if past performance this winter is an indication. There is no way on jan 3, we could of seen a 12 inch snowstorm coming to DC. I think the MJO this time around wont play as as big of a factor. its in a bad phase right now but we are not in a shutout pattern. By early Feb, it should be in should be in Phase 7(probably COD) so we need another excuse. Techically, where MJO and its ampllitude... is right now we should have a big fat ridge. I bet the long range is completely different 3 days from now

I agree with everything you just said which is why I said I still have hope and I’m not saying it’s over. But “maybe guidance is wrong” isn’t exactly where you want to be and it’s a world away from where we were a week ago.   

[high risk]

While we focus on the medium range and an outside shot at a little snow as the rain ends Thursday, there appears to be a very subtle threat for tomorrow midday and afternoon.    While the bulk of the rain will fall Wednesday night when temps are plenty warm, the NAM and NAM nest both show the possibility of a few light showers around Wednesday, and temperatures are only slowly going to climb into the mid and upper 30s.    More relevant, the ground is insanely cold, so I could see a situation in which light rain is falling at 36 degrees, and the roads and sidewalks become icy due to the skin temps lagging far behind the air temps.    I called it a subtle threat, as temperatures will be rising,  and there probably won't be much precip around, but an icy surprise for some folks isn't out of the question.

EDIT:   the nam nest is somewhat on its own with temps staying very cold during the day tomorrow, but I wouldn't write it off

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think whats more troubling than the brief MJO state is the SOI hardly tanked and now has been positive for 5 days in a row. Many of our great storms followed a really good SOI tanking

Your really good storm last week DID follow a SOI tanking.  Keep in mind I am probably less "ok" with seeing a really mediocre looking pattern since I am doing WAY wrt climo right now than you are.  If we have "average" snowfall the rest of the way you will finish a bit above climo but for me this year would actually end up worse than the last 2 winters if that happens.  We are sitting on very different results so far this year.  You just need an ok finish to have a "good" year.  I need a pretty epic run from here out to salvage above climo.  

[mappy]

i am so confused... i thought pattern and long range talk was to be in the other thread? 

[Ji]

Just now, mappy said:

i am so confused... i thought pattern and long range talk was to be in the other thread? 

yea it was a bad idea. Storm Noise and long range patterns go hand in hand.....it would make more sense to have a thread for the Jan 29-30 Storm potential(if there was one). Right now there is no storm to track so both threads are being used for the same thing

[mappy]

Just now, Ji said:

yea it was a bad idea. Storm Noise and long range patterns go hand in hand.....it would make more sense to have a thread for the Jan 29-30 Storm potential(if there was one). Right now there is no storm to track so both threads are being used for the same thing

this... post is surprisingly readable without causing my eye to twitch. as, i agree (not so much about starting a specific threat thread)

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

yea it was a bad idea. Storm Noise and long range patterns go hand in hand.....it would make more sense to have a thread for the Jan 29-30 Storm potential(if there was one). Right now there is no storm to track so both threads are being used for the same thing

Which is why you should take the discussion to the other thread..

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

i am so confused... i thought pattern and long range talk was to be in the other thread? 

ugh sorry... I don't know where to post some stuff.  In this case I made a post about why the pattern was causing the degradation of the specific storm threats being discussed in here but that then branched off into pattern talk in here.  Maybe I should have kept it in the other thread.  But there is so much cross over between the two.  I just think we need to split off threads for specific threats once they get close enough to warrant their own discussion.  Problem is we got this weird superstition that it kills storms so now we wait until something is within like 4 days even when we know people will start to talk about it and analyze a good looking threat way before that.   But I can adapt and work with whatever you decide to do...I think this was my fault.