snowmagnet Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I’m feeling good about getting a big snow storm in the next couple of weeks. We’ve seen hints about a potential storm around the 24th and the 27th-30th for a while now. As others have noted, the lack of consensus in ensembles and ops clearly shows that the models can’t figure out all the moving parts. It’s pretty infuriating that the midweek thing will likely be rain, but I’m optimistic about the 28th. And it’s not a weekend! That would be a nice change of pace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, Danajames said: About the only thing on the GFS 1800 run was a clipper system by next Tuesday. Nothing for the weekend. And until I see otherwise, I'm not expecting anything. Say what you want about the GFS but once it locks down on the 5 day period, it's very consistent and more often than not, pretty accurate. Who knows, maybe something will magically appear by tomorrow or Wednesday but I'm not holding my breath. Hell, I'd love to have a winter of nothing but energized Clipper systems. At least you know they'll be snow. GFS has been pretty poor this winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS has been pretty poor this winter so far Statistically/verification scores or just a general observation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Statistically/verification scores or just a general observation? Tracking winter storms so far, FV3 seems to consistenly be closer with R/S line and strength of storm. Haven’t taken notes, so just a general observation. 12/9 GFS missed pretty badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 This pattern of extreme bone chilling cold followed by just mild enough for plentiful rain, it reminds me of early 2015 in Dale City. It will change though and the Mid Atlantic will have lots of snow and cold. Give it a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 26 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m feeling good about getting a big snow storm in the next couple of weeks. We’ve seen hints about a potential storm around the 24th and the 27th-30th for a while now. As others have noted, the lack of consensus in ensembles and ops clearly shows that the models can’t figure out all the moving parts. It’s pretty infuriating that the midweek thing will likely be rain, but I’m optimistic about the 28th. And it’s not a weekend! That would be a nice change of pace! You are all about to get seriously SHELLACKED by tremendous amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Kinda looks like the 18z FV3 lololol C'mon Bearing Sea Rule! Ya got this last storm right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 so far the 00z modeling looks like a whole bunch of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Icon and gfs seemed to lose the gulf low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 I remember the models had -10 on this day 7 to 10 days agohttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019012200&fh=162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Nice over running after 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: I remember the models had -10 on this day 7 to 10 days ago https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019012200&fh=162 The cold doesn’t actually keep getting pushed back. It’s cold now. But until the NAO or AO goes negative each cold shot is likely to retreat as the next wave goes to our west. Some keep making the mistake of thinking that “the next cold shot is the one to hit and hold” but truth is none will until we get blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 FV3 is a miss wide right. Looks to be setting up for the follow up wave the GFS has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Nice over running after 180 Trailing wave. Best way to get snow in a -epo +NAO pattern. But it’s not the kind of thing that works often or will stick on guidance from range. What made 2014 and 2015 so odd was that setup did work so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: FV3 is a miss wide right. Looks to be setting up for the follow up wave the GFS has What hour and site are you at? TT is at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 The cold doesn’t actually keep getting pushed back. It’s cold now. But until the NAO or AO goes negative each cold shot is likely to retreat as the next wave goes to our west. Some keep making the mistake of thinking that “the next cold shot is the one to hit and hold” but truth is none will until we get blocking. Dude....we were seeing 1985 cold remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Trailing wave. Best way to get snow in a -epo +NAO pattern. But it’s not the kind of thing that works often or will stick on guidance from range. What made 2014 and 2015 so odd was that setup did work so often. It’s probably what, the third time we have seen it at this range? The follow up wave idea that is. Fools gold at range but it’s nice too look at for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 FV3 is a miss wide right. Looks to be setting up for the follow up wave the GFS hasHow much of a miss? Gfs and icon didnt miss cause they had nothing to miss with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, tplbge said: What hour and site are you at? TT is at hour 42. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20190122 00 UTC¶m=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=L&ps=model&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1# out to 177 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: FV3 is a miss wide right. Looks to be setting up for the follow up wave the GFS has How much of a miss? Gfs and icon didnt miss cause they had nothing to miss with It dug for oil. Honestly it wasn’t to different from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20190122 00 UTC¶m=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=L&ps=model&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1# out to 177 here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20190122 00 UTC¶m=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=L&ps=model&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1# out to 177 here.Its close enough. It has something at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Gfs from 2 days ago wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Gfs from 2 days ago wowTrying to bring it back lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS continues to say "What storm are you all fussing about?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Just a depressing run It seemed to have a 6” snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Trying to bring it back lol Nope tpv pinwheels and deflects the NAO ridge off then pops a beast SE ridge. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 I didnt see individual members but the euro ensemble mean shows a hit up the coast. thats a pretty decent signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I didnt see individual members but the euro ensemble mean shows a hit up the coast. thats a pretty decent signal I expected bad news out of you this morning you surprised me especially after seeing the overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I expected bad news out of you this morning you surprised me especially after seeing the overnight runs. its really the only thing i saw positive...and the 00z ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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