psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: ICON just took a major step back at 12z. Hopefully just a blip. maybe... its a pretty weak disturbance into a deamplifying flow and the euro has never been on board for more than conversational flakes. It could be something but wouldn't surprise me at all if it ends up being a non event either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: maybe... its a pretty weak disturbance into a deamplifying flow and the euro has never been on board for more than conversational flakes. It could be something but wouldn't surprise me at all if it ends up being a non event either. I agree. I normally wouldn't be this invested in something that the Euro has never liked. I liked this window back with there was some transient blocking and todays storm quickly moving into eastern Canada on the Ensembles back when it was +120 hrs. It's just a shred factory north of us. I made a bet with my Wife's friends at her school that we would have 2 threats this week because of those looks. I'm going down with the ship lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: I agree. I normally wouldn't be this invested in something that the Euro has never liked. I liked this window back with there was some transient blocking and todays storm quickly moving into eastern Canada on the Ensembles back when it was +120 hrs. It's just a shred factory north of us. I made a bet with my Wife's friends at her school that we would have 2 threats this week because of those looks. I'm going down with the ship lol. The window was really destroyed by the PNA going to absolute crap so fast. That compresses the flow in the east between the western trough and the departing PV and it warms us up too quickly before something can really come along. Had the PAC not gone to absolute hell so fast we would have had a window as the TPV crossed the 50/50 domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Fv3 has between .1-.2 of qpf. For Friday. Wouldn't take much more to get a region wide 2 to 4 " event across the area. Ratios should be decent and with cold ground conditions every flake should stick. EDIT- It has the western MD mountains around .5 in qpf. That's a good sign in imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Euro is better than 0z with the Friday wave. Still only some light snow and mostly stays in MD so verbatim it's not much to talk about. However, the wave is juicier and the mountains to the west do far better than what 0z showed... which was basically nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 EPS played follow the leader with the Friday wave and better than 0z. Mostly Dustings-1" but its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Good news is the euro control gets it done d9-10. Bad news is only about 3 other ens members do it also. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 18z NAM has 0.5"+ for the mountains. Drops 0.1" for Baltimore and central MD. 0.01" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 18z Icon juiced up more bit it takes it mostly through pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 GFS took a step back for Friday. Basically T - 1" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 25 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GFS took a step back for Friday. Basically T - 1" for the area. This is the kind of deal where as long as the models don't lose it or dry out completely we should se something. Let it hold steady through tomorrow where it is now and then hope it juices up a bit on Thursday. .2 is probably the best we can squeeze out of it and that would be fine as it would yield a nice cold 1-3 inch event and someone lucky could pull off 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 14 minutes ago, HighStakes said: This is the kind of deal where as long as the models don't lose it or dry out completely we should se something. Let it hold steady through tomorrow where it is now and then hope it juices up a bit on Thursday. .2 is probably the best we can squeeze out of it and that would be fine as it would yield a nice cold 1-3 inch event and someone lucky could pull off 4. I agree. I'm optimistic about this one. Cold ground and good ratios should go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: I agree. I'm optimistic about this one. Cold ground and good ratios should go a long way. I’m heading to McHenry Thursday night after work (and working from there Friday for half a day). Like I mentioned earlier, if I can squeeze out over 0.5” QPF there, it’ll bode well for east of the Allegany front. Even 0.1” QPF could be 2” especially in the favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I’m heading to McHenry Thursday night after work (and working from there Friday for half a day). Like I mentioned earlier, if I can squeeze out over 0.5” QPF there, it’ll bode well for east of the Allegany front. Even 0.1” QPF could be 2” especially in the favored spots. Sweet. Your probably looking at 6 to 10 out there. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Sweet. Your probably looking at 6 to 10 out there. Nice! It wouldn’t shock me if JonJon sees a foot. Davis will squeeze every potential drop in this event. Hoping for good stuff back here too. I think you’re In a good spot for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 My goal is to get accumulating snow (0.1" or greater) in every month from Nov. to Apr. I have Nov.-Jan. down already, so a 0.1" on Friday would get Feb. in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Friday 'event' is a weak lift pixie dust deal outside of the mountains. Nothing really going on upstairs and moving into a dry air mass. Maybe a light coating here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Guess we'll have to table this thread until, when...next Wednesday? (maybe we'll have something d7 or less by then...who knows?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 NE MD...what’s the word?? PUMMELED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 RGEM isnt feeling the front tomorrow for what its worth. 3K looks like a nice little squall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem definitely more robust with the line intensity DC to Baltimore comparing 18z . I'm curious how this trends by tomorrow morning Gfs jackpots you, psu, and sparky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 It's NAM at range but it does not look good for this event. Most moisture either gets hung up in mountains or heads north into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Euro isn't out yet, but every other model thinks this is a non-event for us and shifts the maybe inch or so north of the MD-PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Euro isn't out yet, but every other model thinks this is a non-event for us and shifts the maybe inch or so north of the MD-PA line. Guess we’ll just have to wait on our KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Fv3 loves anafront snows. lol. Just posting this for fun. Did ok with yesterday's event. Hopefully this holds for 9 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Euro isn't out yet, but every other model thinks this is a non-event for us and shifts the maybe inch or so north of the MD-PA line. Yep. Not looking to hot. Euro is a dusting to maybe an inch along the m/d line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Gotta love the long range look on the fv3. After the 7th there's threats every 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 euro is a disaster for friday but even if it wasnt a disaster...the entire event is a disaster anyway...would of been fun though seeing light snow with temps in the teens. Very dissapointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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