Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Fv3 just put out some pure porn with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Lol- and follows it up with an overrunning event. Ji clearly learned how to hack ncep this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- and follows it up with an overrunning event. Ji clearly learned how to hack ncep this afternoon Wow--Totally different from what his older brother put put this run, lol P.S. (and you and psu are quickly turning this thread R-rated with your talk of German models and porn, ya scadals!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 just put out some pure porn with the coastal Thank goodness. Was watching the regular 18z gfs and envisioning the melts from no legit threats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: P.S. (and you and psu are quickly turning this thread R-rated with your talk of German models and porn, ya scadals!) For once maybe the FV3 will be on to something. It has to start somewhere. Pretty remarkable run there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow--Totally different from what his older brother put put this run, lol P.S. (and you and psu are quickly turning this thread R-rated with your talk of German models and porn, ya scadals!) Just don't expect anything to hold until we're inside of 5 days. This setup is the exact opposite of a long track storm. Multiple moving parts and windshield wipers are on high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 GFS at 18Z put me to sleep, so it's nice to see something worth looking at on the FV3. The cold on the GFS really isn't that impressive. Seems fairly pedestrian for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 FV3 snows on us Thursday as well. I think this next threat has a better chance to finish as snow. That is a pretty potent wave riding the boundary on most of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Now that’s a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 850s look great as well for whatever reason we can try and hope for this to hold and we should be good. But the FV3 is a much better model in my opinion now going forward Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Now that’s a storm! Dynamic cooling from a rapidly deepening low. Would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 FV-3 has been hinting at this for a couple of days. It has obviously improved. Need to hold for a few more model cycles. Then I can justify the purchase of my toy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 FV3 would be excellent, sustained winds of 20 knots for much of the area, while not officially a blizzard it would make for significant blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: 850s look great as well for whatever reason we can try and hope for this to hold and we should be good. But the FV3 is a much better model in my opinion now going forward Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk It would be nice if it held but i'm 100% sure it won't this far out in time. Gefs basically has no storm at all. It can happen because the ingredients are there but if people get mad when it doesn't hold they are expecting waaay too much from long lead op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Now that’s a storm! Further intensification to 961 mb East of Long Island at hour 162 hours. Ah to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just don't expect anything to hold until we're inside of 5 days. This setup is the exact opposite of a long track storm. Multiple moving parts and windshield wipers are on high. Oh trust me I've heard that message loud and clear...(I feel like we oughta add a tag to both this and the other thread that says "chaos tracking", lol) Cranky's "benchmark" approach would be wise here...Wednesday to start taking seriously at the earliest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 This puts it in perspective. Speed up or slow dowm any one of the 3 shortwaves in the flow and the outcome changes significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 It would be nice if it held but i'm 100% sure it won't this far out in time. Gefs basically has no storm at all. It can happen because the ingredients are there but if people get mad when it doesn't hold they are expecting waaay too much from long lead op runs.Well 12z EPS does have the low off hatters for what that's worth as well. Will wait until Thursday to really get a handle on the next event Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It would be nice if it held but i'm 100% sure it won't this far out in time. Gefs basically has no storm at all. It can happen because the ingredients are there but if people get mad when it doesn't hold they are expecting waaay too much from long lead op runs. Thought I read that the GEFS is still the "old" Gfs and the Fv3 wont factor in until later down the road. I say that because the GFS op is notably different looking at surface and GEFS derived from it, so its not totally surprising that GEFS doesnt have "the look" yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, luckyamaha said: Well 12z EPS does have the low off hatters for what that's worth as well. Will wait until Thursday to really get a handle on the next event Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk The mslp panel is midleading on the eps. There are practically no snowstorms out of 50 members. I want a snowstorm as bad as anyone here. I just get ticked off when the whine and cheese party starts after an op run beyond its skill range jumps around or loses a storm. Right now there is literally no ensemble support for what the fv3 spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Thought I read that the GEFS is still the "old" Gfs and the Fv3 wont factor in until later down the road. I say that because the GFS op is notably different looking at surface and GEFS derived from it, so its not totally surprising that GEFS doesnt have "the look" yet. Eps doesn't have it either. Less than 10% of the members showed a storm that drops more than 2" in the region. The gefs is still a decent multi member suite so comparing that skill to the op isn't fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Thought I read that the GEFS is still the "old" Gfs and the Fv3 wont factor in until later down the road. I say that because the GFS op is notably different looking at surface and GEFS derived from it, so its not totally surprising that GEFS doesnt have "the look" yet. I saw a PowerPoint last year that showed a timeline of the "FV3" going mainstream this month but as we have all seen, at least LR wise, verification's have been shoddy so they may have delayed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps doesn't have it either. Less than 10% of the members showed a storm that drops more than 2" in the region. The gefs is still a decent multi member suite so comparing that skill to the op isn't fair. Yeah I know its sorta out on its own (well the CMC likes the storm), and I agree about the GEFS for sure. Just saying that the Fv3 is notably different surface than its daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I saw a PowerPoint last year that showed a timeline of the "FV3" going mainstream this month but as we have all seen, at least LR wise, verification's have been shoddy so they may have delayed it. Yeah, I thought it was shared that it is being delayed due to some "issues". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It would be nice if it held but i'm 100% sure it won't this far out in time. Gefs basically has no storm at all. It can happen because the ingredients are there but if people get mad when it doesn't hold they are expecting waaay too much from long lead op runs. Lol you spelled ji wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: For once maybe the FV3 will be on to something. It has to start somewhere. Pretty remarkable run there. FV3 nailed 12/9 early down here in RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol you spelled ji wrong He must not have seen the Fv3 yet. Leesburg was fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps doesn't have it either. Less than 10% of the members showed a storm that drops more than 2" in the region. The gefs is still a decent multi member suite so comparing that skill to the op isn't fair. So I mean...if there was still potential for this thing...wouldn't there be at least a little more ensemble support at this point? (I know op runs are jumpy...but is it possible we see a run where they ensembles suddenly jump on it?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 About the only thing on the GFS 1800 run was a clipper system by next Tuesday. Nothing for the weekend. And until I see otherwise, I'm not expecting anything. Say what you want about the GFS but once it locks down on the 5 day period, it's very consistent and more often than not, pretty accurate. Who knows, maybe something will magically appear by tomorrow or Wednesday but I'm not holding my breath. Hell, I'd love to have a winter of nothing but energized Clipper systems. At least you know they'll be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So I mean...if there was still potential for this thing...wouldn't there be at least a little more ensemble support at this point? (I know op runs are jumpy...but is it possible we see a run where they ensembles suddenly jump on it?) I'd sure like to see ensembles show a stronger signal. It's not a requirement though. We've had plenty of events sneak up in the med range unannounced. Basically an op will show a hit ensembles jump in. Usually only happens during progressive patterns where choas takes over pretty quick. Fast flow is really hard for any model or ensemble to get right once you get out beyond 4-5 days. I absolutely believe this storm is possible. The ingredients are there. They just have to line up just right. Not much wiggle room. However, seeing limited ensemble support is a red flag. That can change. Needs to happen pretty quick here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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